Home renovation spending reached a record high this summer, according to Harvard University’s Joint Center for Housing Studies. Although they expected those numbers to continue to soar through the end of 2019, the JCHS now says it expects a complete stall come 2020.
(Image courtesy of Harvard University’s Joint Center for Housing Studies. Click to enlarge.)
The Leading Indicator of Remodeling Activity released by the Remodeling Futures Program at JCHS said that annual gains in homeowner spending for improvements and repairs will dissipate by the second half of 2020. Know How To Rebuild Your Home After A Flood?
To that point, the LIRA states that the annual home improvement and maintenance expenditures will post a modest decline of 0.3% through the third quarter of 2020.
“Continued weakness in existing home sales and new construction will lead to sluggish remodeling activity next year,” said Chris Herbert, managing director of the JCHS. “Slowdowns in other key indicators of improvement spending—project permitting, sales of building materials, and home prices—also suggest the remodeling market may be reaching a turning point.”
Back in July, JCHS said that it expected remodeling spending to total a record $331 billion for all of 2019.
Now, the furthest projection in the index (the end of Q2 2020) suggests that spending over the prior 12 months will probably total $323 billion.
“At $325 billion, owner improvement and repair spending in the coming year is expected to essentially remain flat compared to market spending of $326 billion over the past four quarters,” says Abbe Will, associate project director in the Remodeling Futures Program at the Center. “However, today’s low mortgage interest rates may help counter some of these headwinds, which could buoy home improvement expenditure over the coming year.”
Housing starts in the US jumped 9.2 percent from a month earlier to an annualized rate of 1,282 thousand in August of 2018, recovering from a 0.3 percent drop in July and beating market expectations of a 5.8 percent rise. Starts increased in the South, the Midwest and the West and were flat in the Northeast. Housing Starts in the United States averaged 1433.04 Thousand units from 1959 until 2018, reaching an all time high of 2494 Thousand units in January of 1972 and a record low of 478 Thousand units in April of 2009.
US Housing Starts Above Forecasts
Housing starts in the US jumped 9.2 percent from a month earlier to an annualized rate of 1,282 thousand in August of 2018, recovering from a 0.3 percent drop in July and beating market expectations of a 5.8 percent rise. Starts increased in the South, the Midwest and the West and were flat in the Northeast.
Single-family homebuilding, which accounts for the largest share of the housing market, increased 1.9 percent to a rate of 876 thousand units in August; and starts for the volatile multi-family housing segment surged 27.3 percent to a rate of 392 thousand. Starts rose in the Midwest (9.1 percent to 191 thousand), the West (19.1 percent to 318 thousand) and the South (6.5 percent to 674 thousand), but were steady in the Northeast (at 99 thousand). Starts for July were revised to 1,174 thousand from 1,168 thousand.
Building permits dropped 5.7 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,229 thousand, the lowest reading since May of 2017. It compares with market expectations of a 0.1 percent decline to 1,310 thousand and follows a 1.5 percent rise in July. Single-family authorizations fell 6.1 percent to 820 thousand and multi-family permits decreased 4.9 percent to 409 thousand. Declines were seen in all regions: Northeast (-19.2 percent to 101 thousand), the Midwest (-1.7 percent to 178 thousand), the West (-8.4 percent to 304 thousand) and the South (-2.9 percent to 646 thousand).
Year-on-year, housing starts increased 9.4 percent while building permits fell 5.5 percent.
Marilyn Monroe got married in Waccabuc, Westchester.
The actress married playwright Arthur Miller in a short civil ceremony in the White Plains Courthouse in 1956.
It was her third marriage and Miller’s second. Few knew of the impending ceremony.
But their relationship had caused headlines. Miller had divorced his wife to marry Monroe, who had divorced Joe DiMaggio in 1954.
When the news got out of their impending nuptials, the couple held a press conference at Miller’s house in Connecticut on June 29. The local paper had the headline: “Local Resident Will Marry Miss Monroe of Hollywood’, adding, ‘Roxbury Only Spot in World to Greet News Calmly.”
Marilyn Monroe and Arthur Miller held a wedding reception at this Waccabuc home. Karen Croke, kcroke1@lohud.com
Afterwards, they slipped into Westchester and were married in a quick ceremony at the courthouse, after which, as reported the following day in The New York Times, the Millers “got into their sports car and disappeared into traffic.”
They weren’t heading far.
On July 1, the couple held a Jewish ceremony and wedding reception for 25 guests in the Westchester County home of Miller’s literary agent, Kay Brown.
From the outside, it’s not hard to imagine the party that once took place here.
The French Country-style residence built in 1948 seems untouched from those halcyon days when many stars, including Tallulah Bankhead and Benny Goodman lived nearby and fabulous parties were the norm.
The gated property is set on a quiet road with a wonderful view of the surrounding area, and is just across from the 16th hole of the Waccabuc Country Club.
There are many original details, including parquet and tile floors, French doors, leaded windows, and European-style fireplaces. One of the highlights is the living room with walls of glass and terrace exit, a private master suite, and a first-floor guest suite with its own side entrance.
There are four bedrooms and five bathrooms in the home, which is in the Katonah School district.
Outside, the just over 4 acre property is still private and serene. A crescent-shaped lawn terrace steps down to pool and pool house with summer kitchen and cabana, and all surrounded by light woodlands, specimen landscaping and gardens creating sought-after privacy.
Sadly, the Millers were married for only five years before divorcing in 1961. Monroe tragically died the following the year.
MCLEAN, Va., Sept. 06, 2018 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) — Freddie Mac (OTCQB: FMCC) today released the results of its Primary Mortgage Market Survey® (PMMS®), showing that mortgage rates increased marginally over the past week.
Sam Khater, Freddie Mac’s chief economist, says the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage inched higher for the second straight week. “Borrowing costs may be slowly on the rise again in coming weeks, as investors remain optimistic about the underlying strength of the economy,” he said. “It’s important to note that rates are now up three-quarters of a percentage point from last year and home prices – albeit at a slower pace – are still outrunning rising inflation and incomes.”
Added Khater, “This weakening in affordability is hindering many interested buyers this fall, even as the robust economy brings them into the market. The good news is that purchase mortgage applications have recently rebounded to above year ago levels.”
News Facts
30-year fixed-rate mortgage (FRM) averaged 4.54 percent with an average 0.5 point for the week ending September 6, 2018, up from last week when it averaged 4.52 percent. A year ago at this time, the 30-year FRM averaged 3.78 percent.
15-year FRM this week averaged 3.99 percent with an average 0.4 point, up from last week when it averaged 3.97 percent. A year ago at this time, the 15-year FRM averaged 3.08 percent.
5-year Treasury-indexed hybrid adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) averaged 3.93 percent with an average 0.3 point, up from last week when it with an average 3.85 percent. A year ago at this time, the 5-year ARM averaged 3.15 percent.
Average commitment rates should be reported along with average fees and points to reflect the total upfront cost of obtaining the mortgage. Visit the following link for the Definitions. Borrowers may still pay closing costs which are not included in the survey.
Sales of new single-family houses in the United States shrank 0.6 percent month-over-month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 618 thousand in February of 2018 from an upwardly revised 622 thousand in January. It is the lowest reading in four months and compares with market forecasts of a 4.4 percent rise to 623 thousand. Sales fell in the West and the Midwest. New Home Sales in the United States averaged 650.65 Thousand from 1963 until 2018, reaching an all time high of 1389 Thousand in July of 2005 and a record low of 270 Thousand in February of 2011.
Sales of new single-family houses in the United States shrank 0.6 percent month-over-month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 618 thousand in February of 2018 from an upwardly revised 622 thousand in January. It is the lowest reading in four months and compares with market forecasts of a 4.4 percent rise to 623 thousand. Sales fell in the West and the Midwest.
Sales fell in the West (-17.6 percent to 164 thousand) and the Midwest (-3.7 percent to 79 thousand) but rose in the South (9 percent to 338 thousand) and the Northeast (19.4 percent to 37 thousand).
The median sales price of new houses sold was $326,800, above $298,000 a year earlier. The average sales price was $376,700, also higher than $370,500 in February of 2017.
The stock of new houses for sale went up 2 percent from the previous month to 305 thousand, the highest level since March of 2009. This represents a supply of 5.9 months at the current sales rate.
Year-on-year, new home sales edged up 0.5 percent.
It doesn’t seem possible, but midcentury modern design likely became even more popular in 2018 than before. The meteoric rise of the architectural and design style has been aided by shows like Mad Men and pushed into homes through big-box retailers like Target. But a good Eames chair aside, nothing quite compares to a midcentury modern building.
Boasting timeless design in a hot real estate market, the homes of 2018 were a diverse blend of styles from the 1950s and 1960s. We saw a wealth of midcentury gems, ranging from boxy glass houses to post-and-beam stunners. Whether your taste skews organic and natural or colorful and bold, there’s something for everyone on this list.
Without further ado, here are 11 incredible midcentury modern homes that came on the market this year.
Designed by AIA Gold Medal architect JosephEsherick, this multi-level wood-framed home towers above a sloped site in Montclair Hills and frames breathtaking views of the Golden Gate and Bay Bridges. Almost treehouse like in its aesthetics, the 2,391-square-foot four-bedroom boasts a series of decks, balconies, walkways, cantilevers, and staircases that creates a dynamic space both inside and out.
Photo by Robert Batey Photography and courtesy of Barbara Apking of Coldwell Banker
A boxy one-bedroom, one-bath home where you can live out your Farnsworth House dreams. Built by longtime University of Tennessee architecture professor William Starke Shell, the 1,600-square-foot home features a flat roof, 40-by-40 steel beams, and huge glass panels. According to the Knoxville News Sentinel, Shell earned a master’s of architecture from Columbia University before working with Mies in Chicago.
Not every home we loved this year was a starchitect-designed multi-million dollar listing. This modest home in Bayside, Wisconsin, listed for a reasonable $410,000 but boasted original details. The flat-roofed wooden construction unfurls across 2,100 square feet, with an open-concept living, a teal kitchen, and a dining area running the entire length of the house. Here, walls of glass frame views of the yard, while new Acid Brick Flooring complements a double-faced stone fireplace and wood paneling.
Here’s another fantastic midcentury home from the Sarasota School of Architecture, a regional modernist style that emerged after the war in and around Sarasota, Florida, and which counts Paul Rudolph and William Rupp among its notable architects. What sets this one apart is its completely circular design. Measuring approximately 2,714 square feet, the home features 18-foot ceilings, a cantilevering flat roof, clerestory windows circling the top of the curved walls, and soaring, double-height spaces.
The 2,522-square-foot house was built in 1962 by Verne Lars Solberg, a successful commercial architect in northern Illinois. While at the University of Oklahoma, Solberg met Ross and Eleanor Graves—whose father worked Wright’s land in Wisconsin—and it was Ross Graves who introduced Solberg to Wright’s organic style. When a doctor in Polo asked Solberg to design a house, the architect was given free range to design whatever he saw fit; this Usonian-style, three-bedroom, two-bath stunner was the result.
Designed in 1965 for Jack Christiansen, the pioneering engineer behind Seattle’s Kingdome roof and many other iconic buildings throughout the state, the post-and-beam waterfront residence appears to be virtually untouched and beautifully maintained over the years. The structure features an expansive deck propped on a concrete dais with a plethora of midcentury details—think glass and wood construction, Japanese-inspired beams, wood screens, and glazed expanses that frame stunning water and mountain views.
Photo by Carlos Marques with Marcott Studios and courtesy of Houlihan Lawrence
Located in Armonk, New York, about 50 minutes north of the city, this four-bedroom, two-bath midcentury was built in 1957 by architect Arthur Witthoefft of Skidmore, Owings & Merrill. The home is a 25-by-95 foot rectangle featuring a black exposed-steel frame, white glazed brick, and huge floor-to-ceiling glass sliders. It sits on a sloping site, surrounded by the forrest of Westchester County, and multi-year renovations overseen by Witthoefft in 2007 brought the home back to its glory days.
Photo courtesy of Crye-Leike/Luxury Portfolio International®
This four-bedroom, three-and-a-half-bath home was designed by E. Fay Jones in 1964 to respect and highlight the serene forest on the 1.27-acre property. A Frank Lloyd Wright apprentice with a lengthy career of his own, Jones made a name for himself building airy structures in forested areas, many in the Ozarks. It’s a masterclass in the Prairie style; an interior of cypress wood, Arkansas field stone, and flagstone floors is carefully balanced with giant floor-to-ceiling glass windows that provides views into the trees outside.
Photo by Boone Brothers Media, courtesy of Marisa Swenson Modern Homes Portland – Living Room Realty
Built by prolific Portland builder Robert Rummer in 1969, the house boasts Rummer’s classic post-and-beam design with a soaring atrium. The high-pitched, double-gable design anchors a floor plan that wraps around the central atrium, resulting in rooms flooded with light. Giant skylights also create an airy ambiance, but the home feels cozy thanks to Rummer’s use of wood and paneling.
This groovy midcentury modern home located in the Twin Palms neighborhood of Palm Springs starts with an unforgettable facade of stone “isosceles trapezoidal piers” and aquamarine double doors and culminates in impressive outdoor spaces that include a pool and multiple patios.
Sitting on the top of a hill on a one acre lot about 45 minutes from Atlanta, this four-bedroom Eichler-inspired house maintains most of its original features. The large and open living room area boasts soaring tongue and groove ceilings with a massive crab orchard stacked stone fireplace. East facing clerestory windows and a glassed sunroom extends the length of the rear of the home to let in light, contrasting with the warm wood-paneled interiors.
FreddieMac (OTCQB: FMCC) today released the results of its Primary Mortgage Market Survey® (PMMS®), showing average mortgage rates holding relatively flat across the board.
News Facts
30-year fixed-rate mortgage (FRM) averaged 3.93 percent with an average 0.5 point for the week ending December 14, 2017, down from last week when it averaged 3.94 percent. A year ago at this time, the 30-year FRM averaged 4.16 percent.
15-year FRM this week averaged 3.36 percent with an average 0.5 point, the same as last week. A year ago at this time, the 15-year FRM averaged 3.37 percent.
5-year Treasury-indexed hybrid adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) averaged 3.36 percent this week with an average 0.3 point, up from last week when it averaged 3.35 percent. A year ago at this time, the 5-year ARM averaged 3.19 percent.
Average commitment rates should be reported along with average fees and points to reflect the total upfront cost of obtaining the mortgage. Visit the following link for the Definitions. Borrowers may still pay closing costs which are not included in the survey.
Quote Attributed to Len Kiefer, Deputy Chief Economist. “As widely expected, the Fed increased the federal funds target rate this week for the third time in 2017. The market had already priced in the rate hike so long term interest rates, including mortgage rates hardly moved. Mortgage rates held relatively flat across the board, with the 30-year fixed mortgage rate inching down 1 basis point to 3.93 percent in this week’s survey. Mortgage rates have been in a holding pattern for the fourth quarter, remaining within a 10 basis point range since October.”
Earlier this week the Senate jumped into the fray, releasing its own proposal for tax reform. The Senate’s proposal, much like the House bill, which we looked at last week, creates significant headwinds for homeowners and homebuyers, while providing only a temporary cut for middle class homeowners.
What Stays the Same?
Like the House bill, the Senate chose to change the definition for capital gains so that a home seller must have lived in their home for at least five of the prior 8 years. This change would affect 12% to 22% of home sellers, locking in some inventory and potentially changing the trade-up purchase process.
The Senate also proposed to eliminate personal exemptions as the House did, but they chose to increase the child credit to $2000 per child. This latter change is more generous than the House’s $1,600 credit per child and $300 for each parent.
Pouring SALT in the Wound
Unlike the House bill, the Senate chose to eliminate all state and local taxes (SALT) including state and local income and sales taxes as well as state and local real estate taxes. This change will make it more difficult for homeowners to itemize their mortgage interest and when they do, they will face a much lower benefit from homeownership. In a perverse way, only those who can afford very expensive homes will be able to benefit from the real estate provisions of the tax code.
The generous $24,000 standard deduction for couples who are renter or owners provides little support for renters who move to ownership nor does it guarantee that tax cuts today will be utilized to boost housing affordability in the future. Worse, when this provision expires in 8 years, both groups will be worse off.
Time Does Not Heal All Wounds
Most forecasts are for home prices and mortgage rates to rise in the coming years. The chart below shows how the proposals from the House and Senate compare with current law. The orange bars depict the difference between the Senate proposal and current law. A home buying family of four with an income of $100,000 or less would see a gain, while upper-middle income buyers would face a tax hike. However, in 5 years1 that tax cut would disappear for nearly all middle-income homebuyers as mortgage rates and prices rise (red bars). Finally, after 8 years, the tax cuts and enhanced standard deduction both expire letting virtually no buyers benefit under the plan (dark blue bars).
The Senate’s proposal reflects many new changes, but retains many facets of the House proposal. While some changes help middle class homeowners today, it appears that the changes quickly wear out and are worse in the future.
The DeSilver house was designed in 1961 by John Black Lee and Harrison DeSilver. All photos by Michael Biondo
Location: New Canaan, CT
Price: $1,700,000 (guide price)
The affluent enclave of New Canaan, Connecticut, is known as a mecca of modern architecture, where during the 1940s and ’50s, a group of architects collectively known as the Harvard Five settled here and built nearly 100 modern homes, 20 of which have since been torn down.
The DeSilver House on Chichester Road is one of them, and it was designed in 1961 by Harrison DeSilver and John Black Lee, who was often considered the sixth member of the Harvard Five. Lee also lived in New Canaan until his death, in a home he built himself.
Offered through a private sale by owner, the incredible home, which has largely been preserved with a few updates, is now on the market. Characterized by a 6-foot-by-6-foot modular prefab system, the 2,048-square-foot residence sits at a lower grade than the driveway and is accessed by a floating wood bridge.
Once inside, an (original) open-tread staircase leads upstairs to spacious bedrooms (four total, with three baths) and downstairs to the main living area and kitchen (with separate pantry room, Miele appliances, and Heath Ceramics tiles). Further below are a study, children’s playroom, and basement.
Floor-to-ceiling windows take in the gorgeous surroundings of the nearly three-acre site, while an open floorplan allows for flexible family-friendly living. An overhanging flat roof provides passive shelter from the sun on the ground floor and provides coverage over the second-floor balconies as well. A large outdoor patio, directly accessible from the kitchen, encourages indoor-outdoor living.
For a lover of midcentury modern design, the DeSilver House would be a treasure trove of endless inspiration. Located on Chichester Road, where many modernists also built homes, the property is offered with a guide price of $1.7 million. It is also available to rent for $7,000 a month.
Sales of previously owned houses in the United States rose 0.7 percent month-over-month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.39 million in September 2017 from a year low of 5.35 million in August, beating market expectations of a 1 percent fall. Still, ongoing supply shortages and recent hurricanes muted overall activity. Sales of single family houses increased 1.1 percent to 4.79 million after falling 2.1 percent in August, while those of condos fell 1.6 percent to 0.60 million, following a 1.7 percent decline. The median house price fell to $245,100 from $253,100 in August and the months’ worth of supply was steady at 4.2 percent. In addition, the number of houses available in the market rose to 1.90 million from 1.87 million in August. Existing Home Sales in the United States averaged 3912.19 Thousand from 1968 until 2017, reaching an all time high of 7250 Thousand in September of 2005 and a record low of 1370 Thousand in March of 1970.
Existing Home Sales occurs when the mortgage is closed. Mortgage closing usually takes place 30-60 days after the sales contract is closed. . This page provides the latest reported value for – United States Existing Home Sales – plus previous releases, historical high and low, short-term forecast and long-term prediction, economic calendar, survey consensus and news. United States Existing Home Sales – actual data, historical chart and calendar of releases – was last updated on October of 2017.
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