Home prices continue to be higher than they were a year ago, but they are contracting at the fastest pace on record, according to the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Home Price Index, as the housing market struggles under sharply higher interest rates.
Prices in August were 13% higher nationally compared with August 2021, according to the index, down from a 15.6% annual gain in July. The 2.6 percentage difference between the two months is the largest gap in the index’s history, first launched in 1987.
This means home prices are coming down at a record pace.
The 10-city composite, which tracks the biggest housing markets in the United States, rose 12.1% year over year in August, versus a 14.9% gain in July. The 20-city composite was up 13.1% for the month of August, compared with a 16% increase the prior month.
“The forceful deceleration in U.S. housing prices that we noted a month ago continued in our report for August 2022,” said Craig Lazzara, managing director at S&P DJI, in a statement. “Price gains decelerated in every one of our 20 cities. These data show clearly that the growth rate of housing prices peaked in the spring of 2022 and has been declining ever since.”
Miami, Tampa and Charlotte were the top three U.S. cities leading the price gains in August, with year-over-year increases of 28.6%, 28% and 21.3%, respectively. All 20 cities reported lower price increases in the year ending in August versus the year ending in July.
The West Coast saw the largest monthly declines, with San Francisco (-4.3%), Seattle (-3.9%) and San Diego (-2.8%) falling the most.
A quick jump in mortgage rates from record lows this year has seriously tamped down the once red-hot housing market. The average 30-year fixed home loan interest rate at the beginning of 2022 was about 3%. By June it was just over 6% and it is now just above 7%.
The cooling house price inflation was underscored by a separate report from the Federal Housing Finance Agency showing home prices increased 11.9% in the 12 months through August after rising 13.9% in July. Prices fell 0.7% on a monthly basis.
The Fed, staging an aggressive battle with the fastest rising inflation in 40 years, has raised its benchmark overnight interest rate from near zero in March to the current range of 3.00% to 3.25%, the swiftest pace of policy tightening in a generation or more.
That rate is likely to end the year in the mid-4% range, based on Fed officials’ own projections and recent comments.
Data last week showed sales of previously owned homes declined for an eighth straight month in September.
The 10-City composite rose 14.9% year over year, down from 17.4% in June.
The 20-City composite gained 16.1%, down from 18.7% in the previous month.
Tampa, Miami and Dallas saw the highest annual gains among the 20 cities in July, with increases of 31.8%, 31.7% and 24.7%, respectively.
A ‘for sale’ sign is displayed outside a single family home on September 22, 2022 in Los Angeles, California.
U.S. home prices cooled in July at the fastest rate in the history of the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Index, according to a report released Tuesday.
Home prices in July were still higher than they were a year ago, but cooled significantly from June gains. Prices nationally rose 15.8% over July 2021, well below the 18.1% increase in the previous month, according to the report.
The 10-City composite, which tracks prices in major metropolitan areas such as New York and Boston, climbed 14.9% year over year, down from 17.4% in June. The 20-City composite, which adds regions such as the Seattle metro area and greater Detroit, gained 16.1%, down from 18.7% in the previous month. July’s year-over-year gains were lower compared with June in each of the cities covered by the index.
“July’s report reflects a forceful deceleration,” wrote Craig J. Lazzara, managing director at S&P DJI in a release, noting the difference in the annual gains in June and July. The 2.3 percentage point “difference between those two monthly rates of gain is the largest deceleration in the history of the index.”
Tampa, Florida, Miami and Dallas saw the highest annual gains among the 20 cities in July, with increases of 31.8%, 31.7% and 24.7%, respectively. Washington, D.C., Minneapolis and San Francisco saw the smallest gains, but were still well above year-ago levels.
Another recent report from the National Association of Realtors showed home prices softening dramatically from June to July. Prices usually fall during that time, due to the strong seasonality of the housing market, but the decline was three times the average decline historically.
The share of homes with price cuts reached about 20% in August, the same as in 2017, according to Realtor.com.
“For homeowners planning to list, today’s market is significantly different than the one from even 3 weeks ago,” said George Ratiu, senior economist and manager of economic research at Realtor.com.
Home prices are dropping because affordability has weakened dramatically due to fast-rising mortgage rates. The average rate on the popular 30-year fixed mortgage started this year around 3%, but by June had briefly surpassed 6%. It remained in the high 5% range throughout July and is now edging toward 7%, making the average monthly payment about 70% higher than it was a year ago.
“As the Federal Reserve continues to move interest rates upward, mortgage financing has become more expensive, a process that continues to this day. Given the prospects for a more challenging macroeconomic environment, home prices may well continue to decelerate,” Lazzara said.
Real estate prices are rising, but it’s still possible to find deals even in a red-hot housing market.
Buying a home has become incredibly difficult because most of the country has become a seller’s market.
Sale prices have escalated, pricing some people out of the market and pushing others to spending more than they wanted to.
It’s a bleak situation for anyone buying a home and it’s a market that has trapped people who might be willing to sell because they don’t see anyplace they might be able to move to.
There are, however, some ways to find a (relative) bargain even in a time of higher prices and very limited inventory.
To do that, you need to be prepared flexible, and perhaps a little daring.
These steps won’t guarantee that you find the house of your dreams — or even the house for right now — but they give you a much better chance.
1. Have a Great Realtor
Early in the pandemic, my wife and I sold our downtown West Palm Beach condo, bought a Disney-area resort property with some of the proceeds, and moved into a larger rental a few miles from downtown.
We needed to stay in roughly the same area so my son could finish high school, which he did this May.
Renting was not a long-term plan for us and with six months on our lease, slightly ahead of graduation we contacted our long-time Realtor.
Having worked with the same person on multiple transaction, we had a high level of trust and she generally knows what we would do without us having to convey it.
You can’t build that trust quickly — we had bought and sold two properties and purchased our resort property with this Realtor — but you should find a buyer’s agent you feel comfortable with overall.
Ideally, look for someone willing to communicate, who responds quickly, and is willing to listen to what you want.
2. Have Your Finances in Order
We lined up a real mortgage pre-approval before we started looking.
I talked to potential lenders as I had only been in a full-time job for under a year after a decade of freelancing.
That’s a complicated mortgage approval to get, so we made sure to clear most of the hurdles and find out exactly what we could afford before we began looking.
In addition, we took some small steps to make us more attractive to the lender.
That included paying off a small car loan, making sure to keep our credit card balances paid off, and making sure we had no large expenditures.
We also gathered paperwork to show where funds from some non-payroll income we had came from and we sold a small property.
3. Look at a Lot of Houses and Be Flexible
We wanted a single-family home after years of living in condos and townhouses.
It became obvious pretty much immediately that we could not afford anything suitable anywhere in Palm Beach County, so we began looking at condos/townhouses.
Most properties we saw checked most of our boxes, but lacked the amenities I wanted — resort-style pool and a gym — and were in areas that were less desirable.
With no kid in school, we had a lot of flexibility, so I opened up our search to see if we could afford a single-family home that met our needs anywhere in South or even Central Florida.
We found that the Orlando-area had a lot of choices, but since we owned a property there anyway, moving there would require selling that condo, and buying a small place in South Florida.
That was more moves than I wanted to make.
That led us to Port St. Lucie, or more specifically, the Tradition section of Port St. Lucie, which is sort of a town within a city.
Tradition had a very small amount of three-bedroom homes in our price range in developments that offered the amenities we —really I — wanted.
Moving to Port St. Lucie meant sacrificing location.
We’ll be about 40 minutes farther from family and less convenient to airports, but we could in theory afford a single-family home on a nice plot of land in a development with a pool, gym, walking trails, and a clubhouse.
Image source: Daniel Kline/TheStreet
4. Take on a Problem House
When we opened up our search to looking in Tradition/Port St. Lucie exactly three houses were available in our price range, all in the same complex.
One only had two bedrooms and we need three, but the other two seemed like prospects so we went to look at them.
The second house we saw was a mess and it needed a total redo.
The owner had also recently lowered the asking price, so we immediately decided to put in an offer.
Our agent called their agent and we made an offer slightly under asking.
As communication continued over the next few days, we upped our offer a few times until finally, after we had thought we had a deal, they told us they had accepted a cash offer from someone else.
As that was happening — literally while I was on the phone with my Realtor — another house in that complex became available at a lower asking price.
There were very few pictures and a tenant was living there who had the right to stay for 90 days after being given notice of a pending sale.
My agent hardly needed to ask if we were going to make a sight-unseen offer.
We did exactly that knowing that it could not be in worse shape than the previous home we had bid on.
Our bid was over-asking and we priced it relative to the previous house.
It was accepted and we were able to meet the sellers’ demand of a 30-day closing because we had already prepped our mortgage.
When we started the home-buying process purchasing a fixer-upper 40 minutes away from our chosen area was not even a vague consideration.
But once we saw the reality of the market, we made the choice to sacrifice location and being move-in ready over sacrificing buying a single-family home.
To buy a house or a condo in the market, most people will have to make sacrifices, but ultimately we got a house, that with a lot of work, we will be happy living in.
In addition, we stayed at the low-end of our budget and maintained the flexibility needed to be able to make the house the home we want.
The Consumer Price Index (CPI), which measures inflation on the consumer level, rose by 1.2% in March. This pushed the year over year reading higher from 7.9% to 8.5%, which is the hottest reading in 41 years.
Core (CPI), which strips out volatile food and energy prices, rose by 0.3%. As a result, year over year Core CPI increased from 6.4% to 6.5%, which was a bit less than anticipated. The headline inflation jump was expected due to rising oil and food prices, but the Core reading was cooler than anticipated and garnered a positive reaction in the Bond market when the data was released last Tuesday.
Within the report, rents rose 0.4% in March and increased from 4.2% to 4.4% on a year over year basis. While this data has started to increase, the CPI report is still not capturing the double digit increases year over year that many other rent reports are showing.
Owners’ equivalent rent also increased 0.4% and the year over year figure rose from 4.3% to 4.5%. However, note that this data is based on a survey that asks homeowners, “If someone were to rent your home today, how much do you think it would rent for monthly, unfurnished and without utilities?” Understandably, this is very subjective and many people would be guessing these amounts so while this data tries to capture the rise in home prices, it does a poor job.
Some other notable price increases since last year include food (+9%), gasoline (+48%) and used cars (+35%).
Why is rising inflation significant? Besides causing higher prices, inflation is the arch enemy of fixed investments like Mortgage Bonds because it erodes the buying power of a Bond’s fixed rate of return. If inflation is rising, investors demand a rate of return to combat the faster pace of erosion due to inflation, causing interest rates to rise as we’ve seen this year.
Freddie Mac (OTCQB: FMCC) today released the results of its Primary Mortgage Market Survey® (PMMS®), showing that the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage (FRM) averaged 3.92 percent.
“Mortgage rates jumped again due to high inflation and stronger than expected consumer spending,” said Sam Khater, Freddie Mac’s Chief Economist. “The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage is nearing four percent, reaching highs we have not seen since May 2019. As rates and house prices rise, affordability has become a substantial hurdle for potential homebuyers, especially as inflation threatens to place a strain on consumer budgets.”
News Facts
30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 3.92 percent with an average 0.8 point for the week ending February 17, 2022, up from last week when it averaged 3.69 percent. A year ago at this time, the 30-year FRM averaged 2.81 percent.
15-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 3.15 percent with an average 0.8 point, up from last week when it averaged 2.93 percent. A year ago at this time, the 15-year FRM averaged 2.21 percent.
5-year Treasury-indexed hybrid adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) averaged 2.98 percent with an average 0.3 point, up from last week when it averaged 2.80 percent. A year ago at this time, the 5-year ARM averaged 2.77 percent.
The PMMS® is focused on conventional, conforming, fully amortizing home purchase loans for borrowers who put 20 percent down and have excellent credit. Average commitment rates should be reported along with average fees and points to reflect the total upfront cost of obtaining the mortgage. Visit the following link for the Definitions. Borrowers may still pay closing costs which are not included in the survey.
Freddie Mac makes home possible for millions of families and individuals by providing mortgage capital to lenders. Since our creation by Congress in 1970, we’ve made housing more accessible and affordable for homebuyers and renters in communities nationwide. We are building a better housing finance system for homebuyers, renters, lenders, investors and taxpayers. Learn more at FreddieMac.com, Twitter @FreddieMac and Freddie Mac’s blog FreddieMac.com/blog.
Freddie Mac (OTCQB: FMCC) today released the results of its Primary Mortgage Market Survey® (PMMS), showing that the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage (FRM) averaged 3.45 percent.
“Mortgage rates rose across all mortgage loan types, with the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage increasing by almost a quarter of a percent from last week,” said Sam Khater, Freddie Mac’s Chief Economist. “This was driven by the prospect of a faster than expected tightening of monetary policy in response to continued inflation exacerbated by uncertainty in labor and supply chains. The rise in mortgage rates so far this year has not yet affected purchase demand, but given the fast pace of home price growth, it will likely dampen demand in the near future.”
News Facts
30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 3.45 percent with an average 0.7 point for the week ending January 13, 2022, up from last week when it averaged 3.22 percent. A year ago at this time, the 30-year FRM averaged 2.79 percent.
15-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 2.62 percent with an average 0.7 point, up from last week when it averaged 2.43 percent. A year ago at this time, the 15-year FRM averaged 2.23 percent.
5-year Treasury-indexed hybrid adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) averaged 2.57 percent with an average 0.3 point, up from last week when it averaged 2.41 percent. A year ago at this time, the 5-year ARM averaged 3.12 percent.
The PMMS is focused on conventional, conforming, fully amortizing home purchase loans for borrowers who put 20 percent down and have excellent credit. Average commitment rates should be reported along with average fees and points to reflect the total upfront cost of obtaining the mortgage. Visit the following link for the Definitions. Borrowers may still pay closing costs which are not included in the survey.
Freddie Mac makes home possible for millions of families and individuals by providing mortgage capital to lenders. Since our creation by Congress in 1970, we’ve made housing more accessible and affordable for homebuyers and renters in communities nationwide. We are building a better housing finance system for homebuyers, renters, lenders, investors and taxpayers. Learn more at FreddieMac.com, Twitter @FreddieMac and Freddie Mac’s blog FreddieMac.com/blog.
The average rate on the 30-year fixed mortgage hit 3.33% last week and is now about half a percentage point higher than a year ago.
Applications to refinance a home loan fell 2% last week compared with two weeks ago and were 40% lower year over year.
Applications for mortgages to purchase homes fell 4% from two weeks earlier and were 12% lower year over year
The economic damage from the omicron variant of the coronavirus is now expected to be less than initially thought, and that has interest rates back on their upward trajectory yet again. As a result, mortgage demand fell 2.7% to end 2021, compared with two weeks before, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s seasonally adjusted index. [The MBA did not release application volume last week due to the holidays.]
The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($548,250 or less) increased to 3.33% at the end of last week from 3.27% two weeks before, with points rising to 0.48 from 0.38 (including the origination fee) for loans with a 20% down payment. That rate was 47 basis points lower the same week one year ago.
As a result, applications to refinance a home loan fell 2% last week compared with two weeks ago and were 40% lower year over year. The refinance share of mortgage activity, however, increased to 65.4% of total applications from 63.9% the previous week, due to continued weakness in the purchase loan market.
“Mortgage rates continued to creep higher over the past two weeks, as markets maintained an optimistic view of the economy,” said Joel Kan, an MBA economist. “Refinance demand continues to dwindle, as many borrowers refinanced in 2020, and in early 2021.”
Rates continued to climb at the start of this week, rising sharply Tuesday to the highest level since early April of last year, according to Mortgage News Daily, which calculates daily rates as opposed to weekly averages.
Applications for mortgages to purchase homes fell 4% from two weeks earlier and were 12% lower year over year. That was the weakest showing since October 2021. Home sales began pulling back in November, but more because of low inventory than high interest rates. Home prices also continue to gain compared with 2020, up just over 18% in November, according to CoreLogic.
“Despite supply and affordability challenges, 2021 was a record year for purchase originations,” said Kan. “MBA expects 2022 to be even stronger, with total purchase activity reaching $1.74 trillion.”
New York’s $2.4 billion rental assistance fund has nearly run dry, prompting state officials to scramble for more federal funding to cover a backlog of thousands of applicants — and leaving cash-strapped tenants and landlords in limbo.
Designed to help renters and landlords pay expenses amid the fallout from COVID-19, Governor Kathy Hochul announced on Nov. 12 that her administration was asking for an additional $996 million in federal funding from the U.S. Treasury Department to try and keep the program running.
“While New York accelerated getting rent relief out the door and moved from the back of the pack to the front amongst other states, there are still many individuals in need of assistance,” Hochul said.
The funding crunch comes at a time when the eviction moratorium is set to expire on January 15th, leaving thousands without aid. After a weak start marked by system delays and inefficiencies, the ERAP program finally began to make strides in August in distributing the funds to low-income tenants who were unable to pay rent due to the pandemic.
As of November 9th, nearly 280,000 households have submitted applications to the program, and the state has paid out $1 billion to 81,209 landlords who haven’t been paid rent. Meanwhile, between 70,000 to 80,000 applications remain pending.
However, days prior to Hochul’s announcement, the state posted a warning on its website informing would-be applicants that funds are almost gone — except in a few smaller counties where funds have not yet exhausted their pool of aid.
“I am beyond frustrated,” Jill Berman, a New York landlord who owns an 8- family apartment building in Park Slope Brooklyn, told Yahoo Finance in a recent interview.
“The way the process has been handled is very [anger] making,” she added.
Following the state’s move to stop taking most requests for its pandemic rent relief, it prompted Berman to write a letter to Governor Hochul about her situation, which she shared with Yahoo Finance. According to Berman, both she and her tenant — who owes over $30,000 in unpaid rent dated back to May 2020 — had applied for rental assistance in June when the portal was opened.
“That’s significant money. I am lucky that the other tenants in my building are paying their rent but I know other landlords who are not that lucky and are desperately in need of rental assistance funds or they might go under,” Berman said.
After months being in limbo with the state’s Office of Temporary and Disability Assistance (OTDA) — which initially said her case was under “pending quality control” — Berman’s application was approved, and she’ll be receiving her funds soon. However, she faulted a time consuming and opaque process.
“There seems to be a lack of communication between the people answering the phone and those people involved in the quality review unit and process,” Berman said. “The situation is extremely worrisome because OTDA could say, well, the application has been reviewed and it has not been accepted.
No relief for tenants
NYC
Meanwhile, several members of New York’s congressional delegation also sent a letter to the Treasury Department emphasizing the need for additional help, explaining the state continues to receive 10,000 new applications per week.
“We haven’t seen a slow down of applicants,” Ellen Davidson, staff attorney at the Legal Aid Society, told Yahoo Finance in an interview.
“It would seem to us that if you want to make a strong case to Treasury, that we need the additional money, closing down the application portal makes the need seem artificially low,” the attorney added.
The nonprofit tried to help people with the application but couldn’t because the portal was “closed down.” The hiccups were due to “ technological problems,” according to Davidson.
“There’s no paper application so in order to apply, you really have to be comfortable with technology,” Davidson said. “Many of the people who’ve been left out are people who don’t have email addresses, or don’t have email addresses that work and find technology challenging.”
While thousands of applicants remain in limbo, the OTDA continues to work to ensure all applications are completed in their entirety.
“In six short months, New York’s rental assistance program has provided more than $1 billion in direct payments to landlords and protected roughly 168,000 households from eviction,” a spokesperson told Yahoo Finance in a statement.
The spokesperson added that the Empire State was “in a good position” to get more funding to clear its backlog, “and to continue helping struggling renters and landlords alike.”
Without additional federal funding, OTDA doesn’t expect to be able to pay all of the applications already received due to the high demand in ERAP payments.
For applicants who were hoping to apply, but no longer can’t. There is a form available on the ERAP web page so that individuals can provide their email address in order to receive notification if the application portal reopens to all areas of the state.
Inflation across a broad swath of products that consumers buy every day was even worse than expected in October, hitting its highest point in more than 30 years, the Labor Department reported Wednesday.
The consumer price index, which is a basket of products ranging from gasoline and health care to groceries and rents, rose 6.2% from a year ago. That compared to the 5.9% Dow Jones estimate.
On a monthly basis, the CPI increased 0.9% against the 0.6% estimate.
Stripping out volatile food and energy prices, so-called core CPI was up 0.6% against the estimate of 0.4%. Annual core inflation ran at a 6.2% pace, compared to the 4% expectation and the highest since November 1990.
Fuel oil prices soared 12.3% for the month, part of a 59.1% increase over the past year. Energy prices overall rose 4.8% in October and are up 30% for the 12-month period.
Used vehicle prices again were a big contributor, rising 2.5% on the month and 26.4% for the year. New vehicle prices were up 1.4% and 9.8% respectively.
Food prices also showed a sizeable bounce, up 0.9% and 5.4% respectively.
The price increases meant that workers fell further behind.
In a separate report, the Labor Department said real wages after inflation fell 0.5% from September to October, the product of a 0.4% increase in average hourly earnings that was more than offset by the CPI surge.
Shelter costs, which make up one-third of the CPI computation, increased 0.5% for the month and are now up 3.5% on a year-over-year basis, pointing to more reasons for concern that inflation could be more persistent than policymakers anticipate. The annual pace is the highest since September 2019.
The data comes as policymakers such as Fed Chairman Jerome Powell and Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen maintain that the current price pressures are temporary and related to pandemic-specific issues. While they have conceded that inflation has been more persistent than they expected, they see conditions returning to normal over the next year or so.
“Mortgage rates continue to hover at around three percent again this week due to rising economic and financial market uncertainties,” said Sam Khater, Freddie Mac’s Chief Economist. “Unfortunately, with the expectation that both mortgage rates and home prices will continue to rise, competition remains high and housing affordability is declining.”
News Facts
30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 2.99 percent with an average 0.7 point for the week ending October 7, 2021, down slightly from last week when it averaged 3.01 percent. A year ago at this time, the 30-year FRM averaged 2.87 percent.
15-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 2.23 percent with an average 0.7 point, down from last week when it averaged 2.28 percent. A year ago at this time, the 15-year FRM averaged 2.37 percent.
5-year Treasury-indexed hybrid adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) averaged 2.52 percent with an average 0.3 point, up from last week when it averaged 2.48 percent. A year ago at this time, the 5-year ARM averaged 2.89 percent.
The PMMS is focused on conventional, conforming, fully amortizing home purchase loans for borrowers who put 20 percent down and have excellent credit. Average commitment rates should be reported along with average fees and points to reflect the total upfront cost of obtaining the mortgage. Visit the following link for the Definitions. Borrowers may still pay closing costs which are not included in the survey.
Freddie Mac makes home possible for millions of families and individuals by providing mortgage capital to lenders. Since our creation by Congress in 1970, we’ve made housing more accessible and affordable for homebuyers and renters in communities nationwide. We are building a better housing finance system for homebuyers, renters, lenders, investors and taxpayers. Learn more at FreddieMac.com, Twitter @FreddieMac and Freddie Mac’s blog FreddieMac.com/blog.
