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It’s not a fiscal cliff—it’s an austerity crisis. | Katonah Realtor

Reading the headlines this week, you might get the impression that the country was hurtling towards a huge deficit catastrophe on Dec. 31. From the front page of Thursday’s New York Times (“Back to Work: Obama Greeted by Looming Fiscal Crisis”) to today’s Wall Street Journal (“Pressure Rises on Fiscal Crisis”), the rhetoric suggests that the U.S. is facing a crisis akin to problems that have engulfed Europe. (A Yahoo headline from 2011: “The U.S. Fiscal Crisis: Just Like Greece, With One Exception.”)

In fact, the problem with the fiscal cliff is precisely the opposite: The tax hikes and automatic spending cuts that would kick in after Dec 31 would sharply curb our federal deficit through enacting major, sudden austerity measures that would save the U.S. government about $720 billion in 2013 alone, according to the Bank of America’s estimates, which would be about 5.1 percent of GDP.

“If we let all of those changes [happen], there would be a sharp reduction in the budget deficit—in decline in debt to GDP, falling deficits as a share of GDP,” says Chad Stone, chief economist at the Center for Budget and Policy Priorities. “It’s all a dream for people who want really sharp austerity.”

So the reason that the fiscal cliff could push us into another recession in 2013 is because it enacts too much deficit reduction upfront, not too little. By contrast, the reason that Europe became mired in a fiscal crisis in the first place is because profligate nations haven’t done enough to curb their spending and raise revenue to their more fiscally responsible neighbors’ satisfaction.

The folks who want to avoid the fiscal cliff for fear of its impact on a still-faltering economy are effectively arguing that now isn’t the time to enact austerity measures: Instead of taking money out of government programs and people’s paychecks, the government should be putting that money into the economy. And certain parts of the fiscal cliff bring more bang for the buck than others, CBBP’s Stone points out: Payroll tax cuts and unemployment benefits are more effective way to boost economic growth in the short-term than the Bush tax cuts for upper-income Americans, according to a new report from the Congressional Budget Office.

So if it’s immediate austerity that we want to avoid, and stimulus that should take its place, why is there so much talk about the need for major deficit reduction as a solution to the fiscal cliff? It’s because lawmakers decided months and years ago that they wanted this austerity crisis to happen as a way of creating leverage for more sensible, long-term deficit reduction measures.

Despite all their hand-wringing over the fiscal cliff, it was Congress and the White House that decided in the summer of 2011 that we would raise the debt ceiling only on the condition of reducing the deficit by over $2 trillion, with some cuts upfront and the rest attached to the supercommittee with a sequester trigger. (As President Obama reminded us in his speech today, “Last year, we cut more than $1 trillion in spending that we couldn’t afford.”) It’s also because lawmakers decided nearly a decade ago that the Bush tax cuts would be phased out in 2010, which Obama and Congress then extended for another two years because of the weakness of the economy.

The essential dilemma, as both the U.S. and European countries like Greece have begun to discover, is that weak economies don’t respond well to immediate austerity measures. The deficit hawks arguing for a bipartisan “grand bargain” or similarly ambitious deficit-reduction plan want to replace the kind of austerity that we’re facing now with austerity that takes effect further down the road, not undo it altogether. Others simply want to put austerity off for at least a year by extending all the tax cuts and suspending the sequester.

All of these solutions affirm one underlying truth: The reason the fiscal cliff is so scary is that it’s an austerity crisis.

Housing Prices and Income Inequality | Katonah NY Homes

Why is the gap between rich and poor in America yawning ever wider?

The issue is urgent. As my colleague Annie Lowrey writes, there is growing evidence that income inequality impedes economic growth.

And one interesting explanation boils down to the high price of housing.

A recent paper by researchers at Harvard University argues that the prohibitive cost of living in the areas with the greatest economic opportunities has forced low-wage workers to migrate instead to areas with inferior opportunities.

“The best places for low- and high-skilled workers used to be the same places: California, Maryland, New York,” said Peter Ganong, a doctoral student in economics, who wrote the paper with Daniel Shoag, a professor of public policy. “Now low-skilled workers can no longer afford to move to the high-wage places.”

In this account, people aren’t moving to the Sun Belt because they want to live there. They are moving because they can’t afford to live in Boston. And the result isn’t just second-best for them; it also slows the pace of economic growth.

Basically, the economy works best when people can move where their skills are most valued. But for low-skill workers, the high price of housing means the cost of living in those places often exceeds the benefits of working there.

The trends are beautifully illustrated by three time-lapse graphics.

The first shows that average incomes by state converged between 1880 and 1980 as low-skilled workers moved to wealthier states. The second shows the pattern of migration, which has changed significantly over the last 30 years.

The third shows the increase in land-use regulations in rich states.

And here’s the crucial point: It doesn’t have to be this way. High housing prices are the result of public policies that discourage new development. Those policies are generally embraced by the residents of wealthy areas, who benefit, at least in the short term, from restrictions on the supply of new housing. But this paper is one more reason to worry about the long-term economic consequences.

Snow Forecast for Morning Commute – Bedford-Katonah, NY Patch

A winter weather advisory is in effect for Westchester County  until 2 p.m. today.

Today’s forecast calls for 1 to 3 inches of snow by the time many people wake up for their morning commute. An additional 2 to 4 inches is expected to land on the ground this morning into the early afternoon. Temperature are expected to reach a low of 26 and a high of 33.

Be prepared for slippery roads and reduced visibility.

Lewisboro NY Parks and Preserves | Lewisboro NY Real Estate

Lewisboro is rich in natural areas and is a component of the biotic corridor. Two Westchester County Parks are on Lewisboro’s borders, and there are 6 town parks and several community preserves.

Ward Pound Ridge Reservation is Westchester County’s largest (4,700 acre) park. In addition to many trails, there are camping facilities and a Trailside Museum. The main entrance is on route 121 in Cross River.

Mountain Lakes Camp is a County park on the northern border of Lewisboro, with beautiful ponds and trails in the forest. The most popular trail leads to Look Out Point which is perched on top of a cliff overlooking Lake Waccabuc,Lake Oscaleta and Lake Rippowam.


Onatru Farm on Elmwood Road is one of Lewisboro’s preëminent parks and includes tennis facilities and playing fields as well as some town offices. This area also includes some walking trails.

The Lewisboro Town Park on Route 35 contains tennis courts, the town pool, ball fields, and outdoor basketball courts. When ice skating is available in winter, a sign is posted. There are also some walking trails in this park that connect to the adjacent Ward Pound Ridge Reservation.

The Leon Levy Preserve was acquired by the town in 2006 as open space. While some trails exist in this 370-acre (1.5 km2) parcel, as of 2008 additional horse and hiking trails are under development and parking is still limited.

The Brownell Preserve is 118 acres (0.48 km2) of forested land given to the town. It has a 2-mile (3.2 km) trail that loops past an overlook of Lake Katonah.

The Old Field Preserve was obtained in 2003, and contains about 100 acres (0.40 km2) of woods, wetlands, and sizable old fields (thus, the name). The meadows will be preserved to support the birds and animals that are dependent upon this increasingly rare habitat.

Fox Valley Park has a variety of sports facilities for the town, including very busy soccer fields, ball fields, and tennis courts.
See Walking Wild Lewisboro for information on park facilities and trail maps.

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Lewisboro Real Estate Prices Rising in 2010 | Lewisboro NY Real Estate | RobReportBlog

Taking a look at the Katonah-Lewisboro school district real estate prices over the last ten years we found median prices were rising until their peak in 2007.  In 2008 and 2009 prices dropped.  In 2010 the median price for a Katonah-Lewisboro school district home rose again.

2000          $502,000

2001          $595,000

2002          $647,500

2003          $675,000

2004          $750,000

2005          $749,500

2006          $790,000

2007          $815,000

2008          $730,000

2009          $617,500

2010          $690,000

Inventory is still high but the median price in Lewisboro shows a good increase in 2010. 

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Lewisboro NY Home Prices Will Be Flat Through 2015 | Lewisboro Real Estate

The recovery of housing prices will take at least four more years, according to a monthly survey of 110 leading economists and real estate experts, significantly longer than previously estimated.

Housing prices will rise only 7.2 percent by 2014 and the aggregate value of U.S. single-family homes four years from now will be roughly $1 trillion less than the economists projected in May, said Terry Loeb of MacroMarkets, the firm conducting the survey, which is based upon the projected path of the S&P/Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index over the coming five years. 

”For the first time, in this month’s survey, our panelists provided their expectations through 2015. Less than 3% of the panel expects negative change in 2015, and at +3.7 percent, the average of the forecasts for that year is slightly higher than the average annual rate of national home price appreciation that prevailed in the decade prior to the historic bubble.  Yet, at +7.2%, the average projection of cumulative home price performance through 2014 reached its lowest point since survey inception for the second consecutive month,” said Robert Shiller, MacroMarkets co-founder and chief economist.

“The survey data we collected this year have consistently pointed to price stability in the intermediate- to long-term, which is reassuring in light of the volatility in actual home prices we have witnessed during the past few years.  However, most experts foresee a longer road to recovery, and materially lower price performance in the coming years than they did just a few months ago,” said Terry Loebs, MacroMarkets managing director.

Since the third quarter of 2006, near the height of the housing boom, prices have fallen 28 percent by the third quarter of this year, according to the S&P/ Case-Shiller US National Price Index.  The index rose 14.2 percent from the first quarter of 2009 until the second quarter of 2010, when the housing tax credits were in effect.  The latest MacroMarkets Home Price Expectations Survey was conducted during the period December 1st through December 15th.

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Lewisboro Winter Community Calender | Lewisboro NY Real Estate

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2010 WINTER COMMUNITY EVENTS

 

 
 

 

4th ANNUAL LEWISBORO WINTER CELEBRATION
Join the Parks & Recreation Department for a fun filled evening. There will be music, refreshments, lights and a special visit from Frosty & Friends. Dress warm & be ready to have fun & be amongst friends & neighbors. Please bring a canned or non-perishable food item which will be donated to the local community center to help our neighbors during the holiday season.
DATE:
Monday, December 6 , 2010
 
WHERE:
Town Park, Route 35, South Salem – Please park in the main lot. Festivities will be held in the lot between the pool and ballfield.
 
TIME:

6:30 – 7:30 p.m.

 

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SANTA CLAUS LETTERS
(December 1st – 17th)
Youngsters, 8 and under, are
encouraged to write to Santa
Claus to express their holiday thoughts
and wishes. Santa’s special mailboxes
will be available at the Recreation
Office, Vista, Cross River and the South
Salem Post Office’s from December 1st
through December 17th. Santa and his
helpers put special care into answering
each letter. Please make sure that you put
your complete name (first and last) and
address on each letter.

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BREAKFAST WITH SANTA – COSPONSORED BY THE LEWISBORO LIONS CLUB
Youngsters 8 and under are invited to this very special event!Children will enjoy a light breakfast while watching a special show that has been planned. Santa will be there to greet each child and Mom and Dad will have plenty of opportunities to photograph Santa with their child.
DATE:
Saturday, December 11, 2010
 
WHERE:
John Jay High School Cafeteria
 
TIME:
9 – 11 a.m.
 
NOTE:

1. All children must be accompanied by a parent or guardian

2. As admission to this event, each child is aske to bring an unwrapped gift not to exceed $7.00. These gifts will be distributed to a needy children’s organization.

3. Don’t forget your camera/camcorder!

4. All reservations will be accepted on a first come, first served basis. Registration is limited.

 

 

 

Mortgage Bankers Report Foreclosures Are Falling in Lewisboro | Lewisboro NY Real Estate

Fewer homes are falling into foreclosure, the Mortgage Bankers Association reported Thursday. 

The percentage of homes that entered some stage of foreclosure in the third quarter fell to 13.52 percent compared to 14.42 percent in the second quarter in part because of state and federal investigations into procedural errors, the bankers said. 

Mortgages more than three months overdue also fell during the third quarter to 8.7 percent of all loans, down from 9.11 percent in the second quarter. 

The bankers say it is too early to know whether this represents a positive trend because once the foreclosure investigations grind to a halt, foreclosure activity will pick up.  

Elizabeth Duke, a Federal Reserve Board governor, testified that the Fed expected about 2.25 million foreclosure filings this year and in 2011, and 2 million in 2012. “They will remain extremely high by historical standards,” Duke said in a prepared statement. 

Source: The New York Times, David Streitfeld (11/18/2010)

NAR Article

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