Reading the headlines this week, you might get the impression that the country was hurtling towards a huge deficit catastrophe on Dec. 31. From the front page of Thursday’s New York Times (“Back to Work: Obama Greeted by Looming Fiscal Crisis”) to today’s Wall Street Journal (“Pressure Rises on Fiscal Crisis”), the rhetoric suggests that the U.S. is facing a crisis akin to problems that have engulfed Europe. (A Yahoo headline from 2011: “The U.S. Fiscal Crisis: Just Like Greece, With One Exception.”)
In fact, the problem with the fiscal cliff is precisely the opposite: The tax hikes and automatic spending cuts that would kick in after Dec 31 would sharply curb our federal deficit through enacting major, sudden austerity measures that would save the U.S. government about $720 billion in 2013 alone, according to the Bank of America’s estimates, which would be about 5.1 percent of GDP.
“If we let all of those changes [happen], there would be a sharp reduction in the budget deficit—in decline in debt to GDP, falling deficits as a share of GDP,” says Chad Stone, chief economist at the Center for Budget and Policy Priorities. “It’s all a dream for people who want really sharp austerity.”
So the reason that the fiscal cliff could push us into another recession in 2013 is because it enacts too much deficit reduction upfront, not too little. By contrast, the reason that Europe became mired in a fiscal crisis in the first place is because profligate nations haven’t done enough to curb their spending and raise revenue to their more fiscally responsible neighbors’ satisfaction.
The folks who want to avoid the fiscal cliff for fear of its impact on a still-faltering economy are effectively arguing that now isn’t the time to enact austerity measures: Instead of taking money out of government programs and people’s paychecks, the government should be putting that money into the economy. And certain parts of the fiscal cliff bring more bang for the buck than others, CBBP’s Stone points out: Payroll tax cuts and unemployment benefits are more effective way to boost economic growth in the short-term than the Bush tax cuts for upper-income Americans, according to a new report from the Congressional Budget Office.
So if it’s immediate austerity that we want to avoid, and stimulus that should take its place, why is there so much talk about the need for major deficit reduction as a solution to the fiscal cliff? It’s because lawmakers decided months and years ago that they wanted this austerity crisis to happen as a way of creating leverage for more sensible, long-term deficit reduction measures.
Despite all their hand-wringing over the fiscal cliff, it was Congress and the White House that decided in the summer of 2011 that we would raise the debt ceiling only on the condition of reducing the deficit by over $2 trillion, with some cuts upfront and the rest attached to the supercommittee with a sequester trigger. (As President Obama reminded us in his speech today, “Last year, we cut more than $1 trillion in spending that we couldn’t afford.”) It’s also because lawmakers decided nearly a decade ago that the Bush tax cuts would be phased out in 2010, which Obama and Congress then extended for another two years because of the weakness of the economy.
The essential dilemma, as both the U.S. and European countries like Greece have begun to discover, is that weak economies don’t respond well to immediate austerity measures. The deficit hawks arguing for a bipartisan “grand bargain” or similarly ambitious deficit-reduction plan want to replace the kind of austerity that we’re facing now with austerity that takes effect further down the road, not undo it altogether. Others simply want to put austerity off for at least a year by extending all the tax cuts and suspending the sequester.
All of these solutions affirm one underlying truth: The reason the fiscal cliff is so scary is that it’s an austerity crisis.
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Obama’s Housing Policy: Fix Is Crucial To President’s Economic Legacy | Katonah NY Real Estate
President Barack Obama secured reelection while managing to talk around one area of economic policy in which experts frequently charge him with failure: managing the national housing crisis.
In a campaign dominated by talk of joblessness and what to do about it, the president hardly mentioned the epidemic of foreclosures, the fact that roughly one-fifth of all homeowners with mortgages owe the bank more than their properties are worth, or the uncomfortable reality that the American housing market is now largely propped up by taxpayers via public control of the mortgage finance giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.
But while ignoring these issues was apparently a successful electoral strategy — Obama carried most of the “Foreclosure Belt” states, including California, Nevada, Colorado and Florida — that option is unlikely to be available to the president as he begins his second term. The stakes are high. Some experts see Obama’s ability to rejuvenate the housing market as directly influencing his legacy as a failed or successful steward of the American economy.
“There are very important questions left unresolved regarding the future of the housing finance system,” said Julia Gordon, the director of housing policy at the Center for American Progress, a left-leaning think tank. “The answers matter not just for the housing market but for the future of economic growth and the future of the middle class.”
Gordon and other housing experts say they expect that with the market stabilized — prices have ticked up 3.5 percent since the market bottomed out in October of last year — the administration will turn to the biggest unresolved housing conundrum: what to do with Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, wards of the state since a bailout in 2008 that has cost $188 billion.
After the bailout, Congress created a new regulator-overlord, the Federal Housing Finance Agency, to limit further losses and get taxpayers off the hook. The financial bleeding has stopped, but Fannie and Freddie now hold even greater sway than before. Along with the Federal Housing Administration, which backs riskier loans, Fannie and Freddie own or insure more than 90 percent of all new loans made in the United States. In short: they are the mortgage market.
So what comes next? For a while, many Republicans clamored for rapid elimination of the companies, but the prospect of no housing finance system at all seems to have cooled their ardor, though Fannie and Freddie remain popular punching bags. Obama’s win all but guarantees some level of government support going forward, even if Fannie and Freddie don’t survive.
“There is a clear understanding that the government has to play a role in the mortgage finance system,” said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics. “Without that support, the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage, the mainstay of the system, can’t exist.”
Given the stark ideological differences between the president and a severely conservative House of Representatives, and the looming fiscal cliff that will dominate everyone’s attention for the rest of this year, a permanent fix to the Fannie and Freddie problem is probably still far off. In the meantime, the advocates for partial debt forgiveness, or principal reduction, for underwater homeowners will be watching closely to see what becomes of the enemy within: Edward DeMarco, a conservative career bureaucrat who has held the “temporary” job of acting director of the Federal Housing Finance Agency for three years.
DeMarco, in the past year, has resisted intense pressure from the Obama administration to allow principal reduction on Fannie and Freddie loans, even when a private bank or another arm of the federal government would foot the bill.
Debt forgiveness, when combined with other relief, such as a lower interest rate, can bring monthly mortgage payments down dramatically. A study by DeMarco’s own agency found that targeted principal reduction could save taxpayers as much as $1 billion.
Stan Humphries, the chief economist at Zillow, recently told The Huffington Post that the large supply of underwater homes means that fewer are on the market at any given time. As a result, despite the high foreclosure rate, inventory in many areas is actually very tight. Humphries compared it to a stock with few available shares for trade, a situation that can lead to price volatility and continued disruption in the housing market — and in the economy.
DeMarco, though, has said that bailing out homeowners poses a “moral hazard” that could encourage homeowners still current on their loans to intentionally default in order to cash in on the aid. His obstinance has delighted Senate Republicans, and all but ensures that the Senate will kill any nominee Obama puts forward to replace him as head of the agency.
Recently, some have speculated that Obama will fire DeMarco, though that course poses its own challenges. DeMarco is a bureaucrat, not a political appointee, and would need to be fired for cause. Moreover, those who work under him, and would be next in line to replace him as acting director, share his views, according to two sources familiar with the inner workings of the agency.
For all his power, it isn’t clear whether replacing DeMarco with an administration loyalist would move the scale much for underwater borrowers hoping to see some of their debt slashed. Banks pledged to spend at least $10 billion earlier this year as part of the national mortgage settlement to write down the debt on some of these loans.
By the time a replacement for DeMarco is found, there might not be much left for borrowers with Fannie or Freddie loans. Moreover, there doesn’t seem to be much inclination within the administration to use any of the $40 billion or so in unspent dollars from the Troubled Asset Relief Program that was pledged for housing support to jumpstart a new underwater relief program.
Instead, administration is promoting a bill before Congress that would expand its existing refinance program.
Still, housing advocates want to see DeMarco gone. One of their biggest beefs is that thanks to his effort to save every penny for taxpayers, Fannie and Freddie have abandoned their mission to provide broader access to the housing market for middle and low-income borrowers.
Under DeMarco, the two companies have tightened lending standards to exclude all but those with the very best credit from participating. The average Fannie Mae borrower credit score from 2001 to 2004 was 718, a few points less than the median credit score of all U.S. consumers. By 2011, the average score had soared to 762, which is at the very top end of the range and is considered “excellent” by the rating services.
This means far fewer people are qualifying for a Fannie or Freddie mortgage, and even those who do qualify report long waits for approval. The United States doesn’t need another housing bubble, but it needs a system that allows financing for people with the ability to repay what was borrowed, said John Taylor, president of the National Community Reinvestment Coalition, a group that advocates for low-income borrowers. That’s good for families and good for the economy, he said.
For more than 70 years, since Fannie Mae was established during the Great Depression, it and its later-arriving cousin Freddie Mac provided this vital role, Taylor said. It wasn’t until they tried to catch up with the Wall Street subprime machine that they went off course, he said. A readjustment given the horror of the housing crash makes sense, he said, “but the pendulum has swung too far.”
Qualifying for a mortgage after an employment gap | Katonah Real Estate
Q: My husband is quitting his job to stay home w/our three small children (we have twins!). But in two years, we would like to move and have his new job’s salary considered when we apply for a loan. I heard he has to be working for at least six months for his income to be considered. Is that correct?
A: You and your stay-at-home-dad-to-be hubby exemplify the flexible family roles of a modern American family. Kudos to you both for thinking ahead and being strategic about the road ahead. Let’s get right to your questions:
1. Six months should work. Based on current guidelines, which are subject to change, most lenders require that a gap of employment longer than three months be followed up by at least six months of employment before the income of the borrower with the employment gap can be considered toward qualifying for the home loan.
Lenders will still require your last two years of income tax returns, but will generally look to your average monthly income from the last few months so long as they are provided with verification that your husband’s been back to work for at least 180 days.
2. There are caveats. The six-month greenlight assumes that your husband goes back to work in the same field as he worked in before he took time off to stay home with the kids. Most lenders have a two-year “same line of work” requirement; the employment gap doesn’t disqualify his income from counting, so long as he’s been in the same line of work for at least two years.
If your husband is looking to change lines of work, he will need to prove that he’s been in the field for two years before they will count his income. Time spent enrolled in an educational course does count toward the two-year “same line of work” requirement.
So, for example, if he was a firefighter, then went to law school during his employment gap, then went back to work as an attorney for six months, the time spent in law school would count toward the required two years in the legal field, and the six months of lawyer work would allow his income to count toward your qualifications.
If, on the other hand, he was a firefighter, took two years off, then went to work in human resources, he would probably need to work for two years in the HR field before his income would count toward your loan qualifications.
3. And a few more caveats. Assuming he’s going back to work in the same line of work as he was in before, the lender will likely use only his base salary to count toward your loan qualifications. Commissions, overtime, bonuses and other employment compensation beyond the base salary cannot be counted toward your ability to repay your mortgage without a two-year paper trail documenting the extra income. Similarly, if he goes back to work in his own business, he might be required to document his self-employment income via two years of adjusted gross income as shown on federal tax returns, for that income to be counted toward your loan qualifications.
Tara-Nicholle Nelson is author of “The Savvy Woman’s Homebuying Handbook” and “Trillion Dollar Women: Use Your Power to Make Buying and Remodeling Decisions.” Tara is also the Consumer Ambassador and Educator for real estate listings search site Trulia.com. Ask her a real estate question online or visit her website, www.rethinkrealestate.com.
5 reasons you shouldn’t rely on building department inspection | Katonah NY Real Estate
DEAR BARRY: Your articles often recommend that home inspectors be hired to inspect brand-new homes. If a home has just been inspected and approved by the building department, what’s the point of hiring a private home inspector? –John
DEAR JOHN: The answer to your question is worth repeating. Here are the five essential differences between a building department inspection and a professional home inspection:
1. A building inspection is strictly for building code compliance, but it is possible for a home to be poorly built and still comply with code. Home inspections deal with all kinds of substandard conditions, including those that do not involve code, such as poorly fitted doors, poorly mitered trim, missing tile grout, missing shelves in cabinets, sloped floors, loose toilets and faucets, etc.
2. A building inspection usually lasts about 15 to 30 minutes, while a home inspection lasts from 2 1/2 to four hours. This is because many more things are inspected and tested in the course of a home inspection.
3. Building inspectors simply look at the completed construction. They do not test the operational condition of fixtures and appliances. Faucets are not turned on; drains are not tested for leaks; appliances are not operated; smoke and carbon monoxide detectors are not tested; and so on.
4. Gas and electrical services to a home are not turned on until the final inspection is completed and the home is signed off. The building inspector can approve the appearance of the wiring and gas piping, but nothing is tested as part of the final inspection because you cannot test fixtures without gas or electricity.
Home inspectors arrive when utilities have been turned on. They plug testers into outlets to ensure grounding, correct polarity, and ground fault protection. They operate built-in fixtures and appliances such as dishwashers, garbage disposals, lights, ceiling fans, exhaust fans, electric ovens, garage door openers, and more. They also test the gas-burning fixtures such as forced-air furnaces, water heaters, gas-log fireplaces, and cooking appliances.
5. Building inspectors perform a walk-through inspection only. They do not crawl through subareas or attics, and they do not walk on roofs. Home inspectors do all of these things, enabling them to identify construction defects that routinely go unnoticed during a municipal inspection.
Veteran home inspectors know that all brand-new homes have defects of various kinds, usually minor but sometimes major. Examples include broken roof tiles; missing roof flashing; attics without insulation; furnaces improperly installed in attics; congested drainpipes; drains that leak; nontempered glass next to bathtubs and showers; inoperative GFCI outlets; ungrounded outlets; drain vents that terminate in attics; chimneys in contact with combustible materials in attics; loose safety rails; disconnected air ducts under the house; PVC discharge pipes on water heater relief valves; and this list could go on and on.
These are the reasons why people who buy brand-new homes should hire an independent home inspector. A home inspection gives homebuyers the best opportunity to take advantage of the builder’s warranty. Bypassing an inspection leaves undisclosed defects to be discovered at a later date, after the builder’s warranty has expired.
5 Reasons Why Do-it-Yourself Marketing Can Actually Hurt Your Business | Katonah NY Homes
Entrepreneurs, by nature, are do-it-yourself people. Not a bad thing. While that trait may serve you in many areas there’s one where it actually works against you: Marketing. Here’s five reasons why.
1) You Don’t Know What You Don’t Know.
While you might feel savvy after reading a couple marketing books or listening to a savvy marketing guru, it doesn’t compare to working with a qualified team or consultant with great experience and a great record. You simply don’t know what you don’t know, and if you do it yourself, what you don’t know will hurt you. Like having a tag-line that makes no sense, or sends a wrong message. Like pouring money into SEO or your website when the better focus is Content Marketing and improved organic search. Like not realizing you need video. Or having a self-produced video that’s so unprofessional it works against you. The list goes on.
2) A Business Owner Can’t Be Objective.
Passionate business owners tend to be absorbed by their business—an advantage when it comes to DIY marketing, right? Not really. Effective marketing starts with an unbiased perspective. To be successful at marketing, business blemishes must be seen clearly. As a business owner you just don’t have that objectivity. If you read Ken Segall’s book Insanely Simple, about his working with Apple, you’ll read how Steve Jobs was proven wrong time and time again by his more objective and talented outside team who created some of the most iconic and successful marketing ever done.
3) The Best Marketing Isn’t About A System or Formula.
As more small business owners attempt to save money by trying to do their own thing, more self-proclaimed marketing gurus are popping up on the Internet with their “Amazing Profit-Making Marketing” systems. They all sound amazing and they all claim amazing results. They even have amazing testimonials. But every business is different, and a cookie-cutter, systematic approach is not the most effective way to market a business or product. While an “Amazing Profit-Making Marketing System” sounds amazing, the ones making the most money from them are usually the ones getting you to spend money on them.
4) Great Marketing Requires Talent.
Great marketing is part science, part art. Yet, the creative part often gets lost or diminished in this ever-advancing tech world. Focused, creative talent is the ingredient that helps communicate your message and persuade your prospects to buy. It’s not easy to find, but if you do it’ll make a huge difference.
5) DIY Doesn’t Really Save Money.
Because you’re not spending money on outside resources you might think you’re saving tons of money with a DIY approach. Just remember this…it’s not just what you spend, it’s what you spend and get back on what you spend.
Great marketing will get you back more, and sometimes significantly more, than what you spend. So, how do you get great marketing? You find and hire great marketing people, like Steve Jobs did, like Nike’s Phil Knight did, and like every successful business owner does. And, they didn’t just do it when they were big successful companies with huge marketing budgets. They did it from the very beginning of their companies, only months after they incorporated.
You also have to factor in what your time is worth. It’s not cheap. If you kept track of every minute you spent trying to do it yourself and applied a dollar value to that, you’d be surprised at the expense. Also realize that every expensive minute you spend fumbling with something you don’t do great is taking away valuable time and talent from something you do do great. That’s another expense.
To sum up I’ll end with a simple quote from someone who’s interviewed hundreds of small business owners and knows what it takes to be successful:
“Business success is all about finding the right outside service providers and using them wisely. You can’t do it all yourself.” — Anita Campbell, Founder of Small Business Trends
RealtyTrac: 65% of housing markets worse off than in 2008 | Katonah NY Real Estate
ClosingCorp feeding closing costs to title agents | Katonah NY Real Estate
Screen shot of Closing.com homepageAgents for title insurance underwriter North American Title Insurance Co. (NATIC) now have free access to a service that provides guaranteed recording fee, transfer tax and filing instruction data for every residential property nationwide.
The service, DART, is offered by La Jolla, Calif.-based ClosingCorp, a closing costs data and technology provider for lenders, real estate professionals and consumers. ClosingCorp recently updated DART, which debuted in December 2011.
The service automatically determines which recording office or tax authority to use for each property by street address and generates the correct recording fees, transfer taxes and filing instructions. DART also calculates buyer and seller splits based on statutory and customary practices for every transfer tax location in the nation, the company said.
“With more than 4,000 recorder offices and tax jurisdictions and more than 80,000 related taxes, fees, customs, rules and regulations, DART gives title agents immediate access to the precise recording fee, transfer tax and recording instruction data that is so crucial for their businesses,” said Emilio Fernandez, president of NATIC, in a statement.
DART is available through NATIC’s internal AgentLink platform, which provides title agents with business tools and underwriting resources, including forms.
NATIC does business in 28 states. The Miami-based company had 0.83 percent market share nationwide in the second quarter, according to the American Land Title Association (ALTA).
The fiscal cliff would cut the deficit by $720 billion in 2013, but even deficit hawks hate it | Katonah Realtor
If all you wanted to do was to reduce the deficit as quickly as possible, here’s one very simple way to get it done: Go off the fiscal cliff.
Do so would result in about $720 billion in total austerity in 2013, and it would bring down the deficit that year in some of major ways, including $180 billion from income tax hikes, $120 billion in revenue from the payroll tax, $110 billion from the sequester’s automatic spending cuts, and $160 billion from expiring tax breaks and other programs, according to Bank of America’s estimates.
So when businesses and politicians fret about the economic fallout from the fiscal cliff, they’re reacting to the consequences of dramatic deficit-reduction in the short-term. It would save the government hundreds of billions of dollars next year, but would also take away the equivalent 4.6 percent of GDP through tax hikes and spending cuts—a sharp fiscal contraction that economists say would be a drag on growth in a still-tepid economy.
Why, then, do so many in Washington believe that the only way to avoid to the dreadful consequences of deficit reduction is…deficit reduction?
It’s partly because there are some aspects of the fiscal cliff that Democrats and Republicans want to hang onto, albeit in a different form. Nobody wants the big, dumb cuts in the sequester to take effect. But, in theory at least, Republicans do want the $1.2 trillion in deficit reduction contained in the sequester: That’s what they demanded last year, at least, in exchange for raising the debt ceiling in August. And the expectation is that they’ll be pushing for an alternative to the across-the-board sequester that tries to avert the defense cuts while hanging onto the others.
Democrats prefer an alternative that would try to preserve other aspects of the fiscal cliff—namely, the Bush tax cuts expiring on high-income Americans. And leaders like Sen. Chuck Schumer are already trying to frame the looming fight in terms of a trade-off on the deficit: Why not not pay down the deficit instead of giving big tax cuts to wealthy Americans?
Finally, centrist deficit hawks want to use the fiscal cliff as an opportunity to push through their own plan for tax, spending and entitlement overhaul. It would entail much bigger overall deficit reduction, but phased in gradually instead of all at once. Even a “grand bargain” would have about $400 billion in 2013 austerity, as opposed to the $720 billion in the entire fiscal cliff, according to the Bank of America’s estimates. And they’re anticipating that the only way for either side to get what it wants is to sit down and agree to their kind of bargain.
So all of these schools of thought would take Congress in the direction of doing less immediate deficit-reduction, not more.
NY housing market posts strong third quarter | Katonah NY Real Estate
The New York state housing market posted its fifth consecutive quarter of year-over-year home sales gains in the third quarter. The 3Q statewide median sales price increased by 4.4% and the number of pending sales grew for its fifth consecutive quarter, according to the New York State Association of Realtors.
NYSAR CEO Duncan Mackenzie said year-to-date home sales are up 6.2% and pending sales are up 15% compared to the year-ago period. The year-to-date median sales price of $215,000 is unchanged from a year ago.
“As we enter the final quarter of the year, New York state’s housing market continues to move in a positive direction as closed and pending sales continue to increase compared to a year ago,” he said. “While we have a seasonal market in our state, which tends to slow down in the fall and winter months, we are positioned to exceed the 2011 closed sales total and project that we will do so.”
Click the image below to see the full report.
The state reported 27,203 closed sales in 3Q, up 4.6% from the year-ago period. The year-to-date closed sales reached 69,144, an increase of 6.2% from the same period last year.
“There are many positives in the 2012 housing market for buyers who are seeking to move into their new home before the end of the year including all-time low mortgage rates, which were driven even lower by the Fed’s recent mortgage purchases,” said MacKenzie. “Sellers also continue to see improvements as they received nearly 95% of their list price in the third quarter, aided by shrinking inventory levels.”