Tag Archives: Cross River NY Real Estate

Yardi reports average US rent drops | Cross River Real Estate

September 2018 marked the first time in eight months that U.S. multifamily rents did not increase. The $1,412 national average for the month represented a $1 drop from August and a 3.1% year-to-date increase; year-over-year rent growth remained unchanged at 3%, according to a survey of 127 markets by Yardi® Matrix.

The report presents an overall bright outlook for the multifamily sector. A slight decline in rents is normal at the start of fall, it says, “When rent growth traditionally begins to hibernate for winter.” Strong demand countering the steady wave of new supply is another positive sign. “Long-term demand for rentals is likely to remain high for a variety of demographic and social reasons,” the report notes.

Year-over-year rent growth leaders for September were Orlando, Fla.; Las Vegas; Phoenix; Tampa, Fla.; and California’sInland Empire.

View the full Yardi Matrix Multifamily National Report for September 2018 for additional detail and insight into 127 major U.S. real estate markets.

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Mortgage applications fall | Cross River Real Estate

Higher rates lead to less mortgage applications

Mortgage applications decreased 1.8 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending September 7, 2018. This week’s results include an adjustment for the Labor Day holiday.

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 1.8 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 13 percent compared with the previous week. The Refinance Index decreased six percent from the previous week to the lowest level since December 2000. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index increased one percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index decreased 11 percent compared with the previous week and was four percent higher than the same week one year ago.

The refinance share of mortgage activity decreased to 37.8 percent of total applications from 38.9 percent the previous week. The adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) share of activity increased to 6.4 percent of total applications.

The FHA share of total applications increased to 10.4 percent from 10.2 percent the week prior. The VA share of total applications increased to 10.5 percent from 10.0 percent the week prior. The USDA share of total applications remained unchanged at 0.8 percent from the week prior.

The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($453,100 or less) increased to 4.84 percent from 4.80 percent, with points increasing to 0.46 from 0.43 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value ratio (LTV) loans. The effective rate increased from last week.

The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with jumbo loan balances (greater than $453,100) increased to 4.72 percent from 4.67 percent, with points increasing to 0.47 from 0.30 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent LTV loans. The effective rate increased from last week.

The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages backed by the FHA increased to 4.84 percent from 4.79 percent, with points decreasing to 0.51 from 0.69 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent LTV loans. The effective rate decreased from last week.

The average contract interest rate for 15-year fixed-rate mortgages increased to 4.28 percent from 4.23 percent, with points increasing to 0.47 from 0.45 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent LTV loans. The effective rate increased from last week.

 

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In Four Southern States, Nearly 90 Percent of New Homes Have Porches | Cross River Real Estate

Of the roughly 850,000 single-family homes started in 2017, 64.7 percent were built with porches, according to NAHB tabulation of data from the Survey of Construction (SOC).  The SOC is conducted on an ongoing, monthly basis by the U.S. Census Bureau, partially supported with funding from the Department of Housing and Urban Development.

Among other things, the SOC data show that, over the period when single-family starts were declining (from 1.7 million in 2005 to 430,000 in 2011), the share of new homes built with porches was increasing (from 54.1 percent in 2005 to 65.7 percent in 2011).

Since 2009, the share of new homes with porches has been relatively stable, staying between 63 and 65 percent most years.  However, the new-home porch share has broken above the 65 percent barrier twice.  The first time was the record high of 65.7 percent for new homes started in 2011.  The second time was the 65.1 percent of homes started in 2016.   Although the share declined slightly to 64.7 percent in 2017, that still represents the third highest percentage on record.

The Census Bureau generally publishes characteristics of new housing only for the four principal Census regions, but the underlying data can be tabulated down to the nine Census divisions.  There turns out to be substantial variation across divisions in the share of new homes built with porches.  Sometimes, the difference is substantial even between neighboring divisions.  The low extreme is the 52 percent of new homes with porches in the West North Central divison, as well as in the West South Central that neighbors the West North Central to the south.  At the high end of the scale, however, 89 percent of homes started in 2017 were built with porches in the four states that make up the East South Central division, which lies adjacent to the West South Central, on its eastern border.

While the SOC shows how many new single-family homes are built with porches, it doesn’t provide much information about the nature of the porches.  Information on that, however, is available from the Annual Builder Practices Survey (BPS) conducted by Home Innovation Research Labs.  The preliminary 2018 BPS report shows that front porches were far more common than side or rear porches on single-family homes built in 2017.

The BPS also shows that the average size of a front porch on a new home is roughly 100 square feet.  Measured by square footage, the material most commonly used to build new home porches is concrete, followed by treated wood.  Many species of wood used in home building, like southern yellow pine, don’t withstand outdoor use unless pressure treated with preservative chemicals.

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http://eyeonhousing.org/2018/09/nearly-90-percent-of-new-homes-have-porches-in-four-southern-states/

New home sales plummet more than 11% in April | Cross River Real Estate

New home sales plummeted from last month, however the level of housing inventory showed improvement, according to a joint release from the U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development.

Sales of new single-family homes in April came in at a seasonally adjusted rate of 569,000 sales, a decrease of 11.4% from last month’s 642,000 sales. However, this is up 0.5% from last year’s 566,000 sales.

Brent Nyitray, iServe Residential Lending director of capital markets, pointed out in his note to clients that new home sales are still lagging behind population growth.

Surprisingly, the median sales price dropped to $309,200, down from last month’s $315,100.

The seasonally adjusted estimate of new homes for sale at the end of April remained steady at 268,000 homes. But with the lower rate of sales, this represents a 5.7-month supply of homes, up from 5.4 months in March.

While falling home prices and an increase in inventory could show a cooling housing market, time will tell if this was a one-month drop or a new trend.

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New home sales plummet more than 11% in April

Americans Move Less and Impact the Economy Less | Cross River Real Estate

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The median tenure homeowners plan to stay in their homes soared with the housing recession in 2008 for good reasons. Millions of owners were underwater and millions more lacked the 20 percent equity need to sell their home.  Many facing the need to move for job or space reasons found it easier to move and keep their old home to rent out.  Thus was born the phenomenon of “accidental landlording”.

The housing economy has changed dramatically.  Values have almost regained their peaks at the top of the housing boom, far above the levels of 2008.  Yet owner tenure has not changed and repeat buyers’ expectations today are twice as long as actual tenure ten years ago.  Are longer tenures now locked in stone?

One of the leading motivations to move—change in employment—is also changing. Workers stick with the same job longer today than they did 10, 20, and 30 years ago.  U.S. workers had an average job tenure of 4.6 years in 2012, the last year for which figures are available—that’s up from 3.7 years in 2002 and 3.5 in 1983, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The trend holds up within almost every age and gender category—so it cannot be explained away by women’s increased presence in the workplace, or people working past traditional retirement age.

First-time buyers now expect to live in their homes 15 years or longer 2016-10-27_9-19-07

Another contributing factor could be the popularity of “aging in place” among the Boomer generation.  More and more elderly are staying in their family homes rather than downsizing, or moving to retirement communities or rentals.  According to AARP, 87 percent of adults age 65 plus want to stay in their current home and community as they age. Among people age 50 to 64, 71 percent of people want to age in place.

The Recession Changed Ownership Patterns

According to a new analysis by economists at the National Association of Realtors, in 1985, the median tenure for sellers remaining in their home was five years, the lowest in since NAR started tracking the data in the 30-year period. From 1987 to 2008, the median tenure for sellers was a steady six years throughout the course of about a 20-year period. The only exception was in 1997 when the median tenure jumped up one year to seven years for sellers.

As the U.S. housing market entered the recession, the median tenure for sellers began to rise—seven years in 2009, eight in 2010, and to nine years in 2011 where it has remained steady through 2015. The only exception is in 2014 when the median tenure for sellers reached an all-time high at 10 years, but came back down to nine last year. Thus market changes in the last decade have caused sellers to remain in their homes longer, increasing the median number of years in the home by 50 percent more than they did 20-30 years prior.

In 2006, first-time buyers reported that their median expected tenure was just six years and nine years for repeat buyers, the lowest since we started collecting the data for both buyer types. For repeat buyers, that bumped up to 10 years in 2007, 12 years in 2009, and then up to 15 years in 2010 where it has remained steady for the past six years. For first-time buyers, the median expected tenure in the home jumped to 10 years in 2008 where it has remained ever since.

It is no surprise that repeat buyers expect to remain in their home longer than first-time buyers. It is interesting, however, to see that first-time buyers in 2006 expected to sell in just six years. Fast forward a decade to 2015 and first-time buyers expect to sell in almost double the amount of time.

Economic Implications of Longer Tenure

Significantly longer ownership tenure means that homes will change hands less frequently, which hasmajor economic implications:

  • Volumes of transactions will fall for real estate brokers and lenders.  The coming of age of the Millennial generation could theoretically offset the effects of longer tenure except that the first symptom of extended tenure could be the chronic shortage of inventories over the last two years that has plagued home sales and limited opportunities for Millennials to buy;
  • Demand for remodeling and renovation will increase as owners choose to fix up their current homes rather than sell them.  Increased home repair will create new business for Home Depot and hardware stores.

 

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http://www.realestateeconomywatch.com/2016/10/americans-move-less-and-impact-the-economy/

Why Foreclosures are Never-ending Credit Nightmares | Cross River Real Estate

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The popular belief that the seven million Americans who lost their homes to foreclosure during the Housing Crash are healed, whole and forgiven of their debts after seven years have passed is only partly true.

For foreclosures, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac set a seven-year waiting period before defaulters can apply for a mortgage, measured from the completion date of the foreclosure action.  With time foreclosures, bankruptcy filings and tax liens disappear from credit records but the impact of their misfortune lingers for years in the form of substandard credit ratings and scores.

A new study from the Urban institute, The Lasting Impact of Foreclosures and Negative Public Records, corrects the conventional wisdom by chronicling the painful punishment suffered by victims of the foreclosure floods and the Great Recession that began in earnest a decade ago and the impact not just upon individual families but on the economy as a whole.

The researchers found that It takes a long time for a consumer’s credit score to recover from the impact of a foreclosure—far longer than the seven years the foreclosure remains on the credit report.

 

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From 2004 through 2015, 7.1 million borrowers experienced a foreclosure filing, and 34.4 million consumers acquired an adverse public record other than foreclosure. Altogether, 41.5 million people, or 16 percent of the 264 million US consumers with credit records, experienced a financial crisis that impacted their credit.

“We believe this extended impact at least partially explains the slow recovery after 2010, the study found,” wrote the authors, Wei Li, Laurie Goodman and Denise Bonsu.

More than 60 percent of consumers with these negative financial events still had VantageScore credit scores below 620 in 2015. More than 60 percent of them had delinquent debt in 2015, and only 8 percent of them were able to obtain new mortgages as of 2015. And, more than 70 percent of them were the age that preferred homeowning (between 29 and 59 years old) in 2015; this large group of potential borrowers with negative financial events profoundly affects the homeownership rate.

At least at the peak of crisis, when the spike in foreclosure filings jammed up judicial foreclosures, the long judicial foreclosure process might have prevented foreclosed-upon borrowers from moving on.

A large number of consumers will retain adverse events on their records for a considerable time, making it hard for many of them to borrow again. At the end of 2018, 22.8 million consumers—almost 9 percent of the adult consumer population—will still have a foreclosure or adverse public record.

Middle-aged consumers were hit hardest by these credit blemishes. Seventy-three percent of consumers (30 million) who experienced foreclosure or other adverse public records were between 29 and 59 years old in 2015, yet this age group accounts for only 53 percent of adult consumers. The middle-aged consumers hit hardest by these adverse credit events have had a profound impact on the homeownership rate because their age group has the strongest preference for homeownership.

 

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http://www.realestateeconomywatch.com/2016/11/why-foreclosures-are-never-ending-credit-nightmares/

New Home Sales in September – Continuing Gains, Continuing Headwinds | Cross River Real Estate

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The US Census Bureau and Department of Housing and Urban Development in a joint release reported that newly constructed single family homes sold at a seasonally adjusted annual pace of 593 thousand in September, up 3.1% from a downwardly revised August figure, and up 29.8% from September 2015. However, note the monthly data is volatile and September was the lowest point in 2015 and the second highest point in 2016. Year over year growth in the trend in sales was 9.4%. Downward revisions to the July and August figures in no way diminish the upward trend that continues with the September figures.

The inventory of new single family homes for sale was 235 thousand, essentially flat in recent months after modest gains earlier in the year. Prices for new homes rose 3.5% from August and 1.9% from last September. A flat inventory in an environment of rising sales has put upward pressure on prices but expanding inventory has been a challenge given shortages of developed lots and skilled labor (NAHB). Both sales and inventories remain depressed by historical standards but the level of inventory given the pace of sales is in line with historical norms as builders balance caution and available resources in their efforts to meet expanding demand.

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http://eyeonhousing.org/2016/10/new-home-sales-in-september-continuing-gains-continuing-headwinds/

Features and Colors of Kitchens in New Homes | Cross River Real Estate

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What are the features and colors included in kitchens of newly constructed homes? Data from Houzz, combined with information from the 2016 Builder Practices Survey, provides insight.

The 2016 Builder Practices Survey (BPS) is a national survey of homebuilders, conducted by Home Innovation Research Labs, that captures valuable information on the product features included in new residential construction, both single-family and multifamily.

It is a robust survey of 1,381 respondents who built single-family detached units and 199 respondents who built multifamily or single-family attached units (i.e. townhomes). Results are available on national and regional levels.

Analyzing the BPS can uncover interesting trends in the construction of new kitchens, such as countertop material type, cabinet type, and appliances.

Although the BPS covers a broad range of topics, it does not touch upon the color themes of kitchens in new construction. Houzz, an online platform dedicated to home remodeling and design, conducted an online survey on this very topic. Its survey asked recent buyers of newly constructed homes about the colors themes in their kitchens. The survey is national in scope and had 203 respondents.

Combining data from the BPS with the Houzz survey can provide powerful information on what today’s new kitchens look like. The following provides a snapshot of the 2015 product features and color themes included in kitchens of newly constructed single-family homes:

Countertops & Backsplashes
Figure 1 displays the type of countertop material installed in new kitchens. Granite countertops are overwhelmingly the most popular with 64 percent of new homes having this material type. It is no surprise that only 14 percent of new homes have laminate countertops. Based on NAHB’s Consumer Preference Surveyreport, laminate countertops are the least desired kitchen feature and are likely only installed when affordability is a major concern. Besides these material types, 9 percent each of new homes have engineered stone and solid-surface countertops.

Figure 1: Countertop Material Type (1)
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The Houzz survey provides insight on countertop color. Figure 2 displays the countertop color of those who have granite countertops, the most popular countertop material. Three color choices stand out: 30 percent of respondents have multi-colored countertops, 26 percent have white, and 18 percent have black. Twenty-six percent reported some other color, or were not sure about their countertop color.

Figure 2: Countertop Material Color (2)

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In addition to countertop material color, buyers also noted the color of their backsplashes (Figure 3). Twenty-six percent of respondents reported having white backsplashes, 13 percent reported beige, 12 percent reported multi-colored, and 6 percent reported gray. Forty-three percent reported some other color, or were not sure of their backsplash color.

Figure 3: Backsplash Color (3)

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Cabinetry
Figure 4 displays the types of cabinets installed in new homes. Wood-based cabinets are the most common, but there is variation in the panel type of wood cabinets. Sixty percent of new homes have raised panel wood cabinets, compared to 25 percent that have flat panel wood cabinets. Only 5 percent of new homes have laminate cabinets, and the remaining 10 percent consists of various other types, such as glass cabinets.

Figure 4: Cabinet Type (4)

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Figure 5 displays the cabinet colors reported by respondents in the Houzz survey. The most popular color is white (34 percent), followed by wood – medium tone (20 percent), gray (9 percent), wood – dark tone (7 percent), and multi-colored (6 percent).

Figure 5: Cabinet Color (5)

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Appliances
Figure 6 displays the percentage of new homes that have each appliance listed. Cooktops and ranges are almost always provided in new kitchens with 97 percent of new homes having these features. Features that are also commonly installed include dishwashers (92 percent), microwave ovens and garbage disposals (both 84 percent); and refrigerators and freezer (65 percent).

Items less frequently installed in new homes include clothes dryers and washers (36 and 34 percent, respectively), wall ovens (18 percent), hot water recirculation piping (17 percent), water softeners and central vacuum systems (both 13 percent); hot water dispensers and standby generators (both 8 percent); trash compactors (4 percent), and elevators (2 percent).

Figure 6: Percentage of New Homes that Include Appliance (6)

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Figure 7 displays the colors of appliances installed in new kitchens. Most respondents reported that “stainless steel” is the color theme of their appliances, 6 percent reported black, and 4 percent reported white.

Figure 7: Appliance Colors (7)

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The combination of data from the BPS and the Houzz survey provides a sense of what new kitchens look like. New kitchens tend to have granite countertops, raised panel wood cabinets, and come with a standard set of appliances, such as cooktops & ranges, microwaves, dishwashers and garbage disposals. New kitchens also have white, multi-colored, or wood-based color themes, and are complemented by “stainless steel” appliances.

 

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http://eyeonhousing.org/2016/10/features-and-colors-of-kitchens-in-new-homes/

‘Zombie’ foreclosures decline across the country | Cross River Real Estate

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As the foreclosure crisis recedes, some unwanted consequences continue to haunt neighborhoods around the country.

“Zombie” foreclosures — those properties that are currently in the foreclosure process but vacant — fell again in the third quarter, according to Attom Data Solutions. Zombies made up 4.7% of all foreclosures, down 9% from a year ago.

Among the top ten states for zombies, there have been some big declines: zombies are down 28% in Florida, 26% in California, and 14% in Illinois compared to a year ago. But they’re up 6% in New York and 3% in Massachusetts.

Still, as the housing market stays hot, lenders seem to be moving more quickly to take possession of properties where homeowners are having trouble. The number of vacant bank-owned properties jumped 67% in the third quarter compared to a year ago, to 46,604, Attom said.

The states with the biggest number of properties in foreclosure are also the states with the most zombies. They are mostly states that require foreclosures to go through a court process, including New York, New Jersey, Florida, Illinois, and Indiana.

Judicial foreclosures can be a blessing, because they provide protections to homeowners, and a curse, because they take so long to complete. The lengthy and complicated process increases the likelihood that a foreclosure will become a zombie — but the hot housing market increases incentives for struggling homeowners to fight to hold on to their properties.

 

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http://www.marketwatch.com/story/zombie-foreclosures-decline-across-the-country-except-in-some-states-where-theyve-built-strongholds-2016-09-08

Luxury Dips While Mid-tier Zips | Cross River Real Estate

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Call it poetic justice.  While median home prices continue their upward climb, in the third quarter luxury prices stumbled and fell for the first time in over three years.  Redfin reported prices of luxury homes fell 2.2% on a yearly basis, while prices for the rest of the market rose 3.8 percent in the same period.  (Luxury homes are defined by Redfin as the priciest 5% of all homes.)

The Institute of Luxury Home Marketing (ILHM)  reported a similar dip in July and August in its weekly market report.  But prices picked up in the fall to reach $390 a square foot, only to fall with the advent of Thanksgiving and the holiday season.  Currently ILHM reports the median luxury price to be $1,406,319 and the market definitely favors buyers over sellers. Properties in its survey have been on the market for an average of 156 days, (ILHM’s survey tracks homes listed for at least $500,000 in the top 10 zip codes for 31 major metro markets around the county.)

Though Redfin compared luxury price trends to market medians, Nela Richardson, Redfin’s chief economist, recognized how different the luxury is from the rest of real estate.

“High-end buyers are usually not weighed down by rates, mortgages or competition from other buyers, but they do look for deals,” she said in a news release. “It’s a bellwether of slowing price growth for the rest of the market.”

2015-12-08_15-23-20Redfin reported a dramatic divergence and luxury price trends from the rest of the market in the third quarter.

It’s also the most difficult segment of the market to track due the tendency for as many as a third of all sellers in high cost areas to market through pocket listings that keep their homes off the MLSs and the preponderance of 12 nondisclosure states that limit the disclosure of sales prices.

Redfin said luxury home prices fell at the sharpest rate in Scottsdale, Ariz. and Boca Raton, Fla. Both saw 15% declines on a yearly basis. Fort Lauderdale, Fla., reported a 14% decline. Redfin speculated that the declines in Boca Raton and Fort Lauderdale were due to a wave of luxury condos hitting the market at the same time. Washington, D.C.; Denver; Delray Beach, Fla.; and Bend, Ore., all saw double-digit increases in luxury home prices in the same third quarter.

2015-12-08_15-37-42ILHM reported prices dipped in the summer but rebounded before Labor Day, and now are down again with the advent of the holidays.

 

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http://www.realestateeconomywatch.com/2015/12/luxury-dips-while-mid-tier-zips/