NEW YORK—OneKey MLS reported a 2.50% decrease in the closed median residential sale price between September and October 2022 in its nine-county Hudson Valley/New York City regional market area.
For October 2022, OneKey MLS reported a regional closed median sale price of $585,000, representing a 2.50% decrease as compared to the reported $599,999 in September 2022.
Between September and October 2022, closed regional sales transactions, including residential, condo, and co-op sales, decreased to 4,762 from 5,330, representing a 10.70% month-over-month decline.
Six of nine counties reported a decreased closed median sale price in a month-over-month comparison, while two counties reported an increased median price, and one reported no change. The following counties reported decreases in their closed median sale price: Rockland ($532,500, -14.10%), Sullivan ($252,000, -6.50%), Westchester ($620,000, -4.00%), Nassau ($675,000, -3.60%), Bronx ($585,000, -1.70%), and Orange ($385,000, -1.30%)
Putnam ($482,450, +5.10%) and Queens ($690,000, +1.50%) reported an increased closed median sale price, while Suffolk County ($550,000, 0.00%) reported no change.
Pending sales for the Hudson Valley region totaled 1,600 as compared to 2,200 at the same time last year, a decrease of 27.3%. Sales were down in all Hudson Valley counties and in the Bronx. Westchester saw a 20.20% decrease in home sales in October as compared to October 2021; Putnam County posted an 18.50% decrease; Orange County closed sales were down 15.40%; Rockland County’s closed home sales activity fell 38.60% and Sullivan County registered a 13% decline in closed sales. The Bronx saw a 14.50% decline in closed residential home sales last month.
Long Island Market
The October 2022 closed median home price for Long Island, which includes Nassau, Suffolk, and Queens housing data recorded on OneKey MLS, was $618,250, which represents a 3.00% increase over last year’s reported median home price of $600,000.
Nassau County reported a $675,000 closed median home price in October, representing a 3.90% increase over the $650,000 closed median home price reported by the MLS last year. Suffolk County reported a closed median home price of $550,000, representing a 6.20% increase from $517,750 reported on the MLS in October 2021. Queens reported a closed median home price of $690,000, representing no change as compared to the closed median price reported on the MLS in October 2021.
The total number of available residential listings in October 2022 on the MLS was 12,164, which was down 1.00% as compared to the reported available inventory in September 2022.
Jim Speer, CEO OneKey MLS, said, “Home prices across our region are starting to decline as they’re being impacted by unpredictable market conditions. Buyers facing borrowing rates currently hovering around 7.00%, more than double the rates a year prior, are revisiting their buying choices because their purchasing power may have shifted. Gone are the days of the frenzied market.”
OneKey MLS, the largest MLS in New York, aggregates the real estate transactional data from nine counties making up the regional MLS coverage area, and reports individually on each county represented. The infographic demonstrates month-over-month closed median home price comparisons for the region.
OneKey MLS, made possible by the merger of MLSLI and Hudson Gateway MLS, is one of the nation’s leading Multiple Listing Services, serving more than 45,000 Realtor subscribers and 4,300 participating offices throughout Long Island, Manhattan, and the Hudson Valley.
The prices of building materials decreased 0.3% in September (not seasonally adjusted) according to the latest Producer Price Index (PPI) report. The PPI for goods inputs to residential construction, including energy, declined for the third consecutive month in September (-0.1%). Prices have fallen 2.3% since June, the largest three-month drop since April 2020.
The price index of services inputs to residential construction decreased 0.8% in September, driven by lower building materials wholesalers’ margins and freight transportation prices. Services prices have declined each of the last six months by a combined 12.4% and are at the lowest level since 2021. Despite the six-month decline, the PPI for services inputs to residential construction is 3.3% higher than it was in September 2021.
Softwood Lumber
The PPI for softwood lumber (seasonally adjusted) declined 2.9% in September following a 5.2% drop in August. Softwood lumber prices are 14.5% higher than they were a year ago but have fallen 39.6% since March. The index remains 41.9% above pre-pandemic levels.
Steel Mill Products
Steel mill products prices decreased 6.7% in September and have fallen 16.1% over the past four months. The index is at its lowest level since June 2021, but prices of steel mill products are nearly double their pre-pandemic levels, on average.
Ready-Mix Concrete
The PPI for ready-mix concrete (RMC) increased 1.4% in September—its sixth consecutive increase—and has risen 11.6% over the past year. The index has climbed 8.9%, year-to-date, the largest September YTD increase in the series’ 34-year history.
The monthly increase in the national data was primarily driven by a 2.6% price increase in the South region and partially offset by a 0.7% decline in the Northeast. Prices were flat in the Midwest and edged 0.3% higher in the West.
Gypsum Building Materials
The PPI for gypsum building materials edged 0.2% lower in September—just the second monthly decrease in two years. Prices have increased 20.2% over the past year and are up 46.0% since January 2020.
Transportation of Freight
The price of truck transportation of freight decreased 0.4% in September following a 1.9% decline in August. Prices have fallen 3.1% over the past four months, driven lower by a 4.5% decline in the price of long-distance motor carrying. Over the same period, the PPI for local motor carrying increased 1.4%.
Year-to-date, the prices of ocean, rail, and truck freight transportation have increased 22.4%, 7.7%, and 8.0%, respectively.
The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index, which covers all nine U.S. census divisions, reported an 18% annual gain in June, down from 19.9% in May. The 10-City Composite and 20-City Composite annual indices both posted increases lower than the previous month in June, at 17.4% and 18.6% year-over-year growth, respectively.
“Year-over-year deceleration in home price growth, like we saw in today’s home price report, needs to keep happening for the coming months,” says Zonda chief economist Ali Wolf. “The rapid rise in home prices over the past couple years combined with higher mortgage rates have pushed buyers to their limit. Slowing home price growth is critical for a more healthy and sustainable housing market.”
According to the index, Tampa, Florida (+35%), Miami (+33%), and Dallas (+28.2%) reported the highest year-over-year gains in home prices among the 20 cities analyzed in June. Only one of the 20 cities, Chicago, reported higher price increases in the year ending June 2022 compared with the year ending May 2022.
“Relative to May’s 19.9% gain (and April’s 20.6%), prices are clearly increasing at a slower rate,” says Craig Lazzara, managing director at S&P Dow Jones Indices. “This pattern is consistent with our 10-City Composite (up 17.4% in June vs. 19.1% in May) and our 20-City Composite (up 18.6% in June vs. 20.5% in May). It’s important to bear in mind that deceleration and decline are two entirely different things, and that prices are still rising at a robust clip.”
According to Lazzara, June’s growth rate for all three composite indices are “at or above the 95th percentile of historical experience.” The 10.6% year-to-date increase in the National Composite index is the fifth largest increase during the same period in the last 35 years.
Before seasonal adjustment, the U.S. National Index posted a 0.6% month-over-month increase in June, while the 10-City and 20-City Composites both posted increases of 0.4%. Thirteen cities reported price increases before and after seasonal adjustments on a month-over-month basis.
“We’ve noted previously that mortgage financing has become more expensive as the Federal Reserve ratchets up interest rates, a process that continued as our June data were gathered,” Lazzara says. “As the macroeconomic environment continues to be challenging, home prices may well continue to decelerate.”
Existing-home sales declined for the fourth straight month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.41 million. Sales were down 3.4% from April and 8.6% from one year ago.
At $407,600, the median existing-home sales price exceeded $400,000 for the first time and represents a 14.8% increase from one year ago.
The inventory of unsold existing homes rose to 1.16 million by the end of May, or the equivalent of 2.6 months at the current monthly sales pace.
WASHINGTON (June 21, 2022) – Existing-home sales retreated for the fourth consecutive month in May, according to the National Association of Realtors®. Month-over-month sales declined in three out of four major U.S. regions, while year-over-year sales slipped in all four regions.
Total existing-home sales,1https://www.nar.realtor/existing-home-sales, completed transactions that include single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops, fell 3.4% from April to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.41 million in May. Year-over-year, sales receded 8.6% (5.92 million in May 2021).
“Home sales have essentially returned to the levels seen in 2019 – prior to the pandemic – after two years of gangbuster performance,” said NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun. “Also, the market movements of single-family and condominium sales are nearly equal, possibly implying that the preference towards suburban living over city life that had been present over the past two years is fading with a return to pre-pandemic conditions.”
Total housing inventory2 registered at the end of May was 1,160,000 units, an increase of 12.6% from April and a 4.1% decline from the previous year (1.21 million). Unsold inventory sits at a 2.6-month supply at the current sales pace, up from 2.2 months in April and 2.5 months in May 2021.
“Further sales declines should be expected in the upcoming months given housing affordability challenges from the sharp rise in mortgage rates this year,” Yun added. “Nonetheless, homes priced appropriately are selling quickly and inventory levels still need to rise substantially – almost doubling – to cool home price appreciation and provide more options for home buyers.”
The median existing-home price5 for all housing types in May was $407,600, up 14.8% from May 2021 ($355,000), as prices increased in all regions. This marks 123 consecutive months of year-over-year increases, the longest-running streak on record.
Properties typically remained on the market for 16 days in May, down from 17 days in April and 17 days in May 2021. Eighty-eight percent of homes sold in May 2022 were on the market for less than a month.
First-time buyers were responsible for 27% of sales in May, down from 28% in April and down from 31% in May 2021. NAR’s 2021 Profile of Home Buyers and Sellers – released in late 20214 – reported that the annual share of first-time buyers was 34%.
All-cash sales accounted for 25% of transactions in May, down from 26% in April and up from 23% recorded in May 2021.
Individual investors or second-home buyers, who make up many cash sales, purchased 16% of homes in May, down from 17% in April and 17% in May 2021.
Distressed sales5 – foreclosures and short sales – represented less than 1% of sales in May, essentially unchanged from April 2022 and May 2021.
According to Freddie Mac, the average commitment rate(link is external) for a 30-year, conventional, fixed-rate mortgage was 5.23% in May, up from 4.98% in April. The average commitment rate across all of 2021 was 2.96%.
Realtor.com®’s Market Trends Report(link is external) in May shows that the largest year-over-year median list price growth occurred in Miami (+45.9%), Nashville (+32.5%), and Orlando (+32.4%). Austin reported the highest growth in the share of homes that had their prices reduced compared to last year (+14.7 percentage points), followed by Las Vegas (+12.3 percentage points) and Phoenix (+11.6 percentage points).
Single-family and Condo/Co-op Sales
Single-family home sales declined to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.80 million in May, down 3.6% from 4.98 million in April and down 7.7% from one year ago. The median existing single-family home price was $414,200 in May, up 14.6% from May 2021.
Existing condominium and co-op sales were recorded at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 610,000 units in May, down 1.6% from April and down 15.3% from one year ago. The median existing condo price was $355,700 in May, an annual increase of 14.8%.
“Declining home purchases means more people are renting, and the resulting rent price escalation may spur more institutional investors to buy single-family homes and turn them into rental properties – placing additional financial strain on prospective first-time homebuyers,” said NAR President Leslie Rouda Smith, a Realtor® from Plano, Texas, and a broker associate at Dave Perry-Miller Real Estate in Dallas. “To counter this trend, policymakers should consider incentivizing an inventory release to the market by temporarily lowering capital gains taxes for mom-and-pop investors to sell to first-time buyers.”
Regional Breakdown
Existing-home sales in the Northeast climbed 1.5% in May to an annual rate of 680,000, falling 9.3% from May 2021. The median price in the Northeast was $409,700, a 6.7% rise from one year ago.
Existing-home sales in the Midwest dropped 5.3% from the previous month to an annual rate of 1,240,000 in May, slumping 7.5% from May 2021. The median price in the Midwest was $294,500, up 9.5% from one year before.
Existing-home sales in the South declined 2.8% in May to an annual rate of 2,410,000, down 8.4% from the previous year. The median price in the South was $375,000, a 20.6% jump from one year ago. For the ninth consecutive month, the South recorded the highest pace of price appreciation in comparison to the other three regions.
Existing-home sales in the West slid 5.3% compared to the month before to an annual rate of 1,080,000 in May, down 10.0% from this time last year. The median price in the West was $633,800, an increase of 13.3% from May 2021.
The National Association of Realtors® is America’s largest trade association, representing more than 1.5 million members involved in all aspects of the residential and commercial real estate industries.
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For local information, please contact the local association of Realtors® for data from local multiple listing services (MLS). Local MLS data is the most accurate source of sales and price information in specific areas, although there may be differences in reporting methodology.
NOTE: NAR’s Pending Home Sales Index for May is scheduled for release on June 27, and Existing-Home Sales for June will be released on July 20. Release times are 10 a.m. Eastern.
1 Existing-home sales, which include single-family, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops, are based on transaction closings from Multiple Listing Services. Changes in sales trends outside of MLSs are not captured in the monthly series. NAR benchmarks home sales periodically using other sources to assess overall home sales trends, including sales not reported by MLSs.
Existing-home sales, based on closings, differ from the U.S. Census Bureau’s series on new single-family home sales, which are based on contracts or the acceptance of a deposit. Because of these differences, it is not uncommon for each series to move in different directions in the same month. In addition, existing-home sales, which account for more than 90% of total home sales, are based on a much larger data sample – about 40% of multiple listing service data each month – and typically are not subject to large prior-month revisions.
The annual rate for a particular month represents what the total number of actual sales for a year would be if the relative pace for that month were maintained for 12 consecutive months. Seasonally adjusted annual rates are used in reporting monthly data to factor out seasonal variations in resale activity. For example, home sales volume is normally higher in the summer than in the winter, primarily because of differences in the weather and family buying patterns. However, seasonal factors cannot compensate for abnormal weather patterns.
Single-family data collection began monthly in 1968, while condo data collection began quarterly in 1981; the series were combined in 1999 when monthly collection of condo data began. Prior to this period, single-family homes accounted for more than nine out of 10 purchases. Historic comparisons for total home sales prior to 1999 are based on monthly single-family sales, combined with the corresponding quarterly sales rate for condos.
2 Total inventory and month’s supply data are available back through 1999, while single-family inventory and month’s supply are available back to 1982 (prior to 1999, single-family sales accounted for more than 90% of transactions and condos were measured only on a quarterly basis).
3 The median price is where half sold for more and half sold for less; medians are more typical of market conditions than average prices, which are skewed higher by a relatively small share of upper-end transactions. The only valid comparisons for median prices are with the same period a year earlier due to seasonality in buying patterns. Month-to-month comparisons do not compensate for seasonal changes, especially for the timing of family buying patterns. Changes in the composition of sales can distort median price data. Year-ago median and mean prices sometimes are revised in an automated process if additional data is received.
The national median condo/co-op price often is higher than the median single-family home price because condos are concentrated in higher-cost housing markets. However, in a given area, single-family homes typically sell for more than condos as seen in NAR’s quarterly metro area price reports.
4 Survey results represent owner-occupants and differ from separately reported monthly findings from NAR’s Realtors® Confidence Index, which include all types of buyers. Investors are under-represented in the annual study because survey questionnaires are mailed to the addresses of the property purchased and generally are not returned by absentee owners. Results include both new and existing homes.
5 Distressed sales (foreclosures and short sales), days on market, first-time buyers, all-cash transactions and investors are from a monthly survey for the NAR’s Realtors® Confidence Index, posted at nar.realtor.
In a further sign of a housing slowdown, new home sales posted a double-digit percentage decline in April, falling to their weakest pace in two years, as rising mortgage interest rates and worsening affordability conditions continue to take a toll on the housing market.
Sales of newly built, single-family homes in April fell 16.6% to a 591,000 seasonally adjusted annual rate from a downwardly revised reading in March, according to newly released data by the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development and the U.S. Census Bureau. New home sales are down 26.9% compared to April 2021.
“The volume of signed sales contracts significantly declined in April as the cost of purchasing a home increased in 2022 as interest rates surged higher,” said Jerry Konter, chairman of the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) and a home builder and developer from Savannah, Ga. “Higher construction costs fueled by rising material prices and supply-side constraints along with limited existing home inventory are pricing many potential home buyers out of the market.”
In another indicator that deteriorating affordability conditions are particularly hurting the entry-level market, a year ago, 25% of new home sales were priced below $300,000, while in April this share fell to just 10%.
“The April drop for new home sales is a clear recession warning,” said NAHB Chief Economist Robert Dietz. “The median price of a newly-built single-family home increased 19.7% year-over-year. The combination of higher prices and increased interest rates are generating a notable slowing of the housing market. While the nation needs additional housing, home sales are slackening as tightening monetary policy continues to put upward pressure on mortgage rates and supply chain disruptions raise construction costs.”
A new home sale occurs when a sales contract is signed or a deposit is accepted. The home can be in any stage of construction: not yet started, under construction or completed. In addition to adjusting for seasonal effects, the April reading of 591,000 units is the number of homes that would sell if this pace continued for the next 12 months.
In an indication that builders will be slowing construction, new single-family home inventory jumped to a 9 months’ supply, up 40% over last year, with 444,000 available for sale. However, just 38,000 of those are completed and ready to occupy.
The median sales price rose to $450,600 in April from $435,000 in March and is up more than 19% compared to a year ago, due primarily to higher development costs, including materials.
Regionally, on a year-to-date basis, new home sales fell in three regions, down 16.8% in the Midwest, 19.3% in the South and 0.6% in the West. New home sales were up 6.5% in the Northeast.
The CoreLogic Home Price Insights report features an interactive view of our Home Price Index product with analysis through February 2022 and forecasts through February 2023.
CoreLogic HPI™ is designed to provide an early indication of home price trends. The indexes are fully revised with each release and employ techniques to signal turning points sooner. CoreLogic HPI Forecasts™ (with a 30-year forecast horizon), project CoreLogic HPI levels for two tiers—Single-Family Combined (both Attached and Detached) and Single-Family Combined excluding distressed sales.
The report is published monthly with coverage at the national, state and Core Based Statistical Area (CBSA)/Metro level and includes home price indices (including distressed sale); home price forecast and market condition indicators. The data incorporates more than 40 years of repeat-sales transactions for analyzing home price trends.
HPI National Change
February 2022 National Home Prices
Home prices nationwide, including distressed sales, increased year over year by 20% in February 2022 compared with February 2021. On a month-over-month basis, home prices increased by 2.2% in February 2022 compared with January 2022 (revisions with public records data are standard, and to ensure accuracy, CoreLogic incorporates the newly released public data to provide updated results).
Forecast Prices Nationally
The CoreLogic HPI Forecast indicates that home prices will increase on a month-over-month basis by 0.6% from February 2022 to March 2022 and on a year-over-year basis by 5% from February 2022 to February 2023.
HPI & Case-Shiller Trends
This graph shows a comparison of the national year-over-year percent change for the CoreLogic HPI and CoreLogic Case-Shiller Index from 2000 to present month with forecasts one year into the future. We note that both the CoreLogic HPI Single Family Combined tier and the CoreLogic Case-Shiller Index are posting positive, but moderating year-over-year percent changes, and forecasting gains for the next year.
Economic Impact on Home Prices
U.S. home price growth registered a year-over-year increase of 20% in February, another series high and marking 12 months of consecutive double-digit gains. Annual price growth has been recorded every month for the past decade. While prospective buyers outnumber sellers, a record-low number of homes for sale remains the primary culprit for the rapid price gains. The CoreLogic HPI Forecast shows national year-over-year appreciation slowing to 5% by February 2023, as rising interest rates are expected to sideline even more buyers.
“New listings have not kept up with the large number of families looking to buy, leading to homes selling quickly and often above list price. This imbalance between an insufficient number of owners looking to sell relative to buyers searching for a home has led to the record appreciation of the past 12 months. Higher prices and mortgage rates erode buyer affordability and should dampen demand in coming months, leading to the moderation in price growth in our forecast.”
– Dr. Frank Nothaft Chief Economist for CoreLogic
HPI National and State Maps – February 2022
The CoreLogic HPI provides measures for multiple market segments, referred to as tiers, based on property type, price, time between sales, loan type (conforming vs. non-conforming) and distressed sales. Broad national coverage is available from the national level down to ZIP Code, including non-disclosure states.
Nationally, home prices increased 20% year over year in February. No states posted an annual decline in home prices. The states with the highest increases year-over-year were Florida (29.1%), Arizona (28.6%) and Nevada (25.8%).
HPI Top 10 Metros Change
The CoreLogic HPI provides measures for multiple market segments, referred to as tiers, based on property type, price, time between sales, loan type (conforming vs. non-conforming) and distressed sales. Broad national coverage is available from the national level down to ZIP Code, including non-disclosure states.
These large cities continued to experience price increases in February, with Phoenix on top at 30.4% year over year.
Markets to Watch: Top Markets at Risk of Home Price Decline
The CoreLogic Market Risk Indicator (MRI), a monthly update of the overall health of housing markets across the country, predicts that Lake Havasu-Kingman, Arizona is at a high risk (50-70% probability) of a decline in home prices over the next 12 months. Prescott, Arizona is also at high risk (50-70%), while Bridgeport-Stamford-Norwalk, Connecticut; Hartford, Connecticut; and Urban Honolulu, Hawaii, are at a moderate risk (25-50%) of a decline.
Summary
CoreLogic HPI features deep, broad coverage, including non-disclosure state data. The index is built from industry-leading real-estate public record, servicing, and securities databases—including more than 40 years of repeat-sales transaction data—and all undergo strict pre-boarding assessment and normalization processes.
CoreLogic HPI and HPI Forecasts both provide multi-tier market evaluations based on price, time between sales, property type, loan type (conforming vs. non-conforming) and distressed sales, helping clients hone in on price movements in specific market segments.
Updated monthly, the index is the fastest home-price valuation information in the industry—complete home-price index datasets five weeks after month’s end. The Index is completely refreshed each month—all pricing history from 1976 to the current month—to provide the most up-to-date, accurate indication of home-price movements available.
Methodology
The CoreLogic HPI™is built on industry-leading public record, servicing and securities real-estate databases and incorporates more than 40 years of repeat-sales transactions for analyzing home price trends. Generally released on the first Tuesday of each month with an average five-week lag, the CoreLogic HPI is designed to provide an early indication of home price trends by market segment and for the “Single-Family Combined” tier, representing the most comprehensive set of properties, including all sales for single-family attached and single-family detached properties. The indices are fully revised with each release and employ techniques to signal turning points sooner. The CoreLogic HPI provides measures for multiple market segments, referred to as tiers, based on property type, price, time between sales, loan type (conforming vs. non-conforming) and distressed sales. Broad national coverage is available from the national level down to ZIP Code, including non-disclosure states.
CoreLogic HPI Forecasts™are based on a two-stage, error-correction econometric model that combines the equilibrium home price—as a function of real disposable income per capita—with short-run fluctuations caused by market momentum, mean-reversion, and exogenous economic shocks like changes in the unemployment rate. With a 30-year forecast horizon, CoreLogic HPI Forecasts project CoreLogic HPI levels for two tiers — “Single-Family Combined” (both attached and detached) and “Single-Family Combined Excluding Distressed Sales.” As a companion to the CoreLogic HPI Forecasts, Stress-Testing Scenarios align with Comprehensive Capital Analysis and Review (CCAR) national scenarios to project five years of home prices under baseline, adverse and severely adverse scenarios at state, metropolitan areas and ZIP Code levels. The forecast accuracy represents a 95% statistical confidence interval with a +/- 2% margin of error for the index.
About Market Risk Indicator
Market Risk Indicators are a subscription-based analytics solution that provide monthly updates on the overall “health” of housing markets across the country. CoreLogic data scientists combine world-class analytics with detailed economic and housing data to help determine the likelihood of a housing bubble burst in 392 major metros and all 50 states. Market Risk Indicators is a multi-phase regression model that provides a probability score (from 1 to 100) on the likelihood of two scenarios per metro: a >10% price reduction and a ≤ 10% price reduction. The higher the score, the higher the risk of a price reduction.
Source: CoreLogic The data provided are for use only by the primary recipient or the primary recipient’s publication or broadcast. This data may not be resold, republished or licensed to any other source, including publications and sources owned by the primary recipient’s parent company without prior written permission from CoreLogic. Any CoreLogic data used for publication or broadcast, in whole or in part, must be sourced as coming from CoreLogic, a data and analytics company. For use with broadcast or web content, the citation must directly accompany first reference of the data. If the data are illustrated with maps, charts, graphs or other visual elements, the CoreLogic logo must be included on screen or website.
For questions, analysis or interpretation of the data, contact Robin Wachner at newsmedia@corelogic.com. Data provided may not be modified without the prior written permission of CoreLogic. Do not use the data in any unlawful manner. The data are compiled from public records, contributory databases and proprietary analytics, and its accuracy is dependent upon these sources.
Illustrated Report Highlights
As a courtesy you can download the national historic HPI data here. (Note: this link is a national historical trend report and not the current month CoreLogic Home Price Insights report).
About CoreLogic
CoreLogic is a leading global property information, analytics and data-enabled solutions provider. The company’s combined data from public, contributory and proprietary sources includes over 4.5 billion records spanning more than 50 years, providing detailed coverage of property, mortgages and other encumbrances, consumer credit, tenancy, location, hazard risk and related performance information. The markets CoreLogic serves include real estate and mortgage finance, insurance, capital markets, and the public sector. CoreLogic delivers value to clients through unique data, analytics, wo
The CoreLogic Home Price Insights report features an interactive view of our Home Price Index product with analysis through February 2022 and forecasts through February 2023.
CoreLogic HPI™ is designed to provide an early indication of home price trends. The indexes are fully revised with each release and employ techniques to signal turning points sooner. CoreLogic HPI Forecasts™ (with a 30-year forecast horizon), project CoreLogic HPI levels for two tiers—Single-Family Combined (both Attached and Detached) and Single-Family Combined excluding distressed sales.
The report is published monthly with coverage at the national, state and Core Based Statistical Area (CBSA)/Metro level and includes home price indices (including distressed sale); home price forecast and market condition indicators. The data incorporates more than 40 years of repeat-sales transactions for analyzing home price trends.
HPI National Change
February 2022 National Home Prices
Home prices nationwide, including distressed sales, increased year over year by 20% in February 2022 compared with February 2021. On a month-over-month basis, home prices increased by 2.2% in February 2022 compared with January 2022 (revisions with public records data are standard, and to ensure accuracy, CoreLogic incorporates the newly released public data to provide updated results).
Forecast Prices Nationally
The CoreLogic HPI Forecast indicates that home prices will increase on a month-over-month basis by 0.6% from February 2022 to March 2022 and on a year-over-year basis by 5% from February 2022 to February 2023.
HPI & Case-Shiller Trends
This graph shows a comparison of the national year-over-year percent change for the CoreLogic HPI and CoreLogic Case-Shiller Index from 2000 to present month with forecasts one year into the future. We note that both the CoreLogic HPI Single Family Combined tier and the CoreLogic Case-Shiller Index are posting positive, but moderating year-over-year percent changes, and forecasting gains for the next year.
Economic Impact on Home Prices
U.S. home price growth registered a year-over-year increase of 20% in February, another series high and marking 12 months of consecutive double-digit gains. Annual price growth has been recorded every month for the past decade. While prospective buyers outnumber sellers, a record-low number of homes for sale remains the primary culprit for the rapid price gains. The CoreLogic HPI Forecast shows national year-over-year appreciation slowing to 5% by February 2023, as rising interest rates are expected to sideline even more buyers.
“New listings have not kept up with the large number of families looking to buy, leading to homes selling quickly and often above list price. This imbalance between an insufficient number of owners looking to sell relative to buyers searching for a home has led to the record appreciation of the past 12 months. Higher prices and mortgage rates erode buyer affordability and should dampen demand in coming months, leading to the moderation in price growth in our forecast.”
– Dr. Frank Nothaft Chief Economist for CoreLogic
HPI National and State Maps – February 2022
The CoreLogic HPI provides measures for multiple market segments, referred to as tiers, based on property type, price, time between sales, loan type (conforming vs. non-conforming) and distressed sales. Broad national coverage is available from the national level down to ZIP Code, including non-disclosure states.
Nationally, home prices increased 20% year over year in February. No states posted an annual decline in home prices. The states with the highest increases year-over-year were Florida (29.1%), Arizona (28.6%) and Nevada (25.8%).
HPI Top 10 Metros Change
The CoreLogic HPI provides measures for multiple market segments, referred to as tiers, based on property type, price, time between sales, loan type (conforming vs. non-conforming) and distressed sales. Broad national coverage is available from the national level down to ZIP Code, including non-disclosure states.
These large cities continued to experience price increases in February, with Phoenix on top at 30.4% year over year.
Markets to Watch: Top Markets at Risk of Home Price Decline
The CoreLogic Market Risk Indicator (MRI), a monthly update of the overall health of housing markets across the country, predicts that Lake Havasu-Kingman, Arizona is at a high risk (50-70% probability) of a decline in home prices over the next 12 months. Prescott, Arizona is also at high risk (50-70%), while Bridgeport-Stamford-Norwalk, Connecticut; Hartford, Connecticut; and Urban Honolulu, Hawaii, are at a moderate risk (25-50%) of a decline.
Summary
CoreLogic HPI features deep, broad coverage, including non-disclosure state data. The index is built from industry-leading real-estate public record, servicing, and securities databases—including more than 40 years of repeat-sales transaction data—and all undergo strict pre-boarding assessment and normalization processes.
CoreLogic HPI and HPI Forecasts both provide multi-tier market evaluations based on price, time between sales, property type, loan type (conforming vs. non-conforming) and distressed sales, helping clients hone in on price movements in specific market segments.
Updated monthly, the index is the fastest home-price valuation information in the industry—complete home-price index datasets five weeks after month’s end. The Index is completely refreshed each month—all pricing history from 1976 to the current month—to provide the most up-to-date, accurate indication of home-price movements available.
Methodology
The CoreLogic HPI™is built on industry-leading public record, servicing and securities real-estate databases and incorporates more than 40 years of repeat-sales transactions for analyzing home price trends. Generally released on the first Tuesday of each month with an average five-week lag, the CoreLogic HPI is designed to provide an early indication of home price trends by market segment and for the “Single-Family Combined” tier, representing the most comprehensive set of properties, including all sales for single-family attached and single-family detached properties. The indices are fully revised with each release and employ techniques to signal turning points sooner. The CoreLogic HPI provides measures for multiple market segments, referred to as tiers, based on property type, price, time between sales, loan type (conforming vs. non-conforming) and distressed sales. Broad national coverage is available from the national level down to ZIP Code, including non-disclosure states.
CoreLogic HPI Forecasts™are based on a two-stage, error-correction econometric model that combines the equilibrium home price—as a function of real disposable income per capita—with short-run fluctuations caused by market momentum, mean-reversion, and exogenous economic shocks like changes in the unemployment rate. With a 30-year forecast horizon, CoreLogic HPI Forecasts project CoreLogic HPI levels for two tiers — “Single-Family Combined” (both attached and detached) and “Single-Family Combined Excluding Distressed Sales.” As a companion to the CoreLogic HPI Forecasts, Stress-Testing Scenarios align with Comprehensive Capital Analysis and Review (CCAR) national scenarios to project five years of home prices under baseline, adverse and severely adverse scenarios at state, metropolitan areas and ZIP Code levels. The forecast accuracy represents a 95% statistical confidence interval with a +/- 2% margin of error for the index.
About Market Risk Indicator
Market Risk Indicators are a subscription-based analytics solution that provide monthly updates on the overall “health” of housing markets across the country. CoreLogic data scientists combine world-class analytics with detailed economic and housing data to help determine the likelihood of a housing bubble burst in 392 major metros and all 50 states. Market Risk Indicators is a multi-phase regression model that provides a probability score (from 1 to 100) on the likelihood of two scenarios per metro: a >10% price reduction and a ≤ 10% price reduction. The higher the score, the higher the risk of a price reduction.
Source: CoreLogic The data provided are for use only by the primary recipient or the primary recipient’s publication or broadcast. This data may not be resold, republished or licensed to any other source, including publications and sources owned by the primary recipient’s parent company without prior written permission from CoreLogic. Any CoreLogic data used for publication or broadcast, in whole or in part, must be sourced as coming from CoreLogic, a data and analytics company. For use with broadcast or web content, the citation must directly accompany first reference of the data. If the data are illustrated with maps, charts, graphs or other visual elements, the CoreLogic logo must be included on screen or website.
For questions, analysis or interpretation of the data, contact Robin Wachner at newsmedia@corelogic.com. Data provided may not be modified without the prior written permission of CoreLogic. Do not use the data in any unlawful manner. The data are compiled from public records, contributory databases and proprietary analytics, and its accuracy is dependent upon these sources.
Illustrated Report Highlights
As a courtesy you can download the national historic HPI data here. (Note: this link is a national historical trend report and not the current month CoreLogic Home Price Insights report).
About CoreLogic
CoreLogic is a leading global property information, analytics and data-enabled solutions provider. The company’s combined data from public, contributory and proprietary sources includes over 4.5 billion records spanning more than 50 years, providing detailed coverage of property, mortgages and other encumbrances, consumer credit, tenancy, location, hazard risk and related performance information. The markets CoreLogic serves include real estate and mortgage finance, insurance, capital markets, and the public sector. CoreLogic delivers value to clients through unique data, analytics, wo rkflow technology, advisory and managed services. Clients rely on CoreLogic to help identify and manage growth opportunities, improve performance and mitigate risk. Headquartered in Irvine, Calif., CoreLogic operates in North America, Western Europe and Asia Pacific. For more information, please visit www.corelogic.com.
rkflow technology, advisory and managed services. Clients rely on CoreLogic to help identify and manage growth opportunities, improve performance and mitigate risk. Headquartered in Irvine, Calif., CoreLogic operates in North America, Western Europe and Asia Pacific. For more information, please visit www.corelogic.com.
Over the past three years, dozens of cities across the country have banned natural gas hookups in newly constructed buildings as part of a growing campaign to reduce carbon emissions from homes. The movement scored a major victory last month, when New York City’s outgoing Mayor Bill de Blasio signed into law a ban on gas hookups in new buildings.
Though new laws apply to the entire home, the policy debate often focuses on one room in particular: the kitchen. Gas stoves account for a relatively small share of the emissions released by a typical household, but they’ve become a proxy for a larger fight over how far efforts to curb at-home natural gas consumption in the name of fighting climate change should go.
Natural gas consumption accounts for 80 percent of fossil fuel emissions from residential and commercial buildings, according to the Environmental Protection Agency. One study estimated that New York’s ban on its own would create an emissions reduction comparable to taking 450,000 cars off the road. But the movement has met significant pushback. About 35 percent of U.S. homes use gas for cooking, and surveys show that many people are resistant to switching to an electric or induction range. The gas industry has also launched a massive lobbying campaign that has helped convince 19 Republican-led states to preemptively bar local governments from imposing bans on natural gas.
Beyond the climate implications of natural gas in general, there is also a movement to phase out gas stoves because of the harmful pollutants they release inside the home. Cooking on a gas stove releases nitrogen dioxide, carbon monoxide and formaldehyde, chemicals that have been connected with negative health conditions like asthma, with particular risk to children. One study found that gas stoves can create levels of nitrogen dioxide indoors exceeding the legal limits for outdoor air.
Why there’s debate
The debate over gas stoves is really a two-part conversation, with one element focusing on the environmental harms of at-home natural gas consumption in general, and the other specifically on the indoor pollution that gas cooktops create.
Climate change activists see gas bans as a powerful way to reduce the greenhouse gases created by buildings, which account for about 13 percent of total U.S. emissions. They argue that — unlike burgeoning technologies like a green power grid and electric vehicles — clean alternatives to gas heaters, appliances and stoves are readily available to most consumers. Critics of the bans, on the other hand, are skeptical of how much they’ll really reduce emissions, worry about increasing costs for homeowners and argue that market-based solutions will be most effective at promoting a transition to electrified homes.
When it comes to health, advocates say gas stoves are simply too toxic to be installed in new homes. They call for governments to create financial incentives to help homeowners switch to electric or induction stoves, an expense they argue will ultimately save money relative to the cost of potential health problems.
The gas industry makes the case that with proper ventilation, gas stoves can be safe. Conservatives also take issue with the idea of the government limiting individual choice. Others argue that focusing on gas stoves, a product many people have an intense loyalty to, will only increase resistance to electrification as a whole.
What’s next
The list of cities to ban gas hookups in new construction appears primed to grow in the coming years, and opposition is likely to ramp up in response. So far, no statewide bans have been put in place. California has come the closest. Starting next year, all homes built in the state may be required to be wired so they’re “electric ready” even if they have gas appliances installed. In New York, Gov. Kathy Hochul has proposed a statewide ban as part of a multipronged initiative to combat climate change.
Perspectives
Supporters
Gas bans are the only way to meaningfully reduce emissions from the home
“For the individual homeowner, as for society at large, managing harmful pollution eventually starts to seem a little silly when equally effective, affordable, and pollution-free alternatives are available. It’s time to start making new buildings all-electric and switching out all those existing gas appliances, including gas stoves, for electric alternatives.” — David Roberts, Vox
Gas stoves are a great entry point for the broader effort to electrify homes
“The humble stove may seem like a tiny part of a big problem — but it’s one of our most personal, immediate and tangible. It’s also one of the easiest to change.” — Brady Seals, Guardian
A combination of legal limits and financial incentives could supercharge a shift away from gas
“The government could speed things up mightily with subsidies and regulation. If the state provided a big credit for property owners to replace their gas stoves, with particular attention on older stoves in apartment buildings (they often leak or burn very inefficiently), and set up new regulations on the amount of air pollution appliances could produce that would gradually tighten over time, gas cooking could be replaced entirely.” — Ryan Cooper, the Week
Gas stoves are toxic to our health
“Cooking is the No. 1 way you’re polluting your home. It is causing respiratory and cardiovascular health problems; it can exacerbate flu and asthma and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease in children. … You’re basically living in this toxic soup.” — Shelly Miller, environmental engineer, to Mother Jones
Electrification of homes is one of the few climate transitions that’s possible right now
“Real estate developers already have most of the technology to replace furnaces with heat pumps, hot water heaters with electric boilers, and gas stoves with induction cooktops. And because cities and towns control building and energy codes, it’s one of the few areas where they have the power to push through deep emission cuts.” — Ysabelle Kempe, Grist
Climate change is too important to leave up to the free market
“The pursuit of market-based solutions … as a pathway to addressing the energy transition in low-income and disadvantaged communities is likely infeasible, and also ethically dubious. Market-based solutions have not achieved their desired goals, thus new ways of thinking need to emerge.” — Multiple authors, the Appeal
Opponents
Gas bans rob consumers of their freedom to choose what to have in their homes
“As for the gas stove, it’s the next target for elimination, because it uses gas. The Left, if they get control of everything, would ban it from new manufacture nationwide and then ban its replacement and ownership. … If someone in Montana or Florida or Seattle says, ‘But I prefer gas,’ you can only roll your eyes.” — James Lileks, National Review
The free market will be much more effective at promoting a transition from gas
“With respect to the goal of reducing greenhouse gas emissions, there would be no need to mandate building electrification if it were already cheaper than the fossil fuel alternatives for heat, hot water, and cooking. … In other words, the adoption of electric home heating has been proceeding expeditiously without mandates.” — Ronald Bailey, Reason
Attacking gas stoves is a great way to turn people off from electrification in general
“Home kitchens thus account for about 0.4% of U.S. natural gas use. … That’s not a lot! Gas cooking does, however, seem likely to be the biggest obstacle to the effort to electrify the American home in the name of slowing climate change. Why’s that? Mainly because people (myself included) like cooking with gas! It’s one of the few energy uses that inspires brand loyalty to the fuel consumed.” — Justin Fox, Bloomberg
Gas bans will actually increase emissions without a green energy grid
“It has evolved into the transitional fuel of our time, allowing the U.S. to quickly ditch coal while giving renewables time to expand to the scale needed to power the entire electricity-hungry country. Once those renewables have reached that scale, banning natural gas in residential construction starts making environmental sense. Until then, these proposals are ultimately increasing our carbon footprint.” — Ognjen Miljanić, The Hill
Gas stoves aren’t ideal, but aren’t as harmful as critics make them out to be
“It’s a good choice to avoid gas if you’re replacing your stove anyway. … But if you’re looking for personal ways to protect the environment and your health right now, you have much bigger fish to fry. Electrifying your space- and water-heating systems, or your car, will have a massively larger impact, as will ventilating your kitchen.” — Liam McCabe, New York Times.
Fueled by low mortgage interest rates and strong demand, existing home sales increased for a third straight month in November, according to the National Association of Realtors (NAR). However, supply has continued to lag due to ongoing supply-chain disruptions, keeping home price elevated and pricing out first-time and young buyers.
Total existing home sales, including single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops, rose 1.9% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 6.46 million in November, the highest level since January. However, on a year-over-year basis, sales were 2.0% lower than a year ago, the fourth annual decline since August 2020.
The first-time buyer share fell to 26% in November, down from 29% in October and down from 32% a year ago. The November inventory level declined from 1.23 to 1.11 million units and is still down from 1.28 million units a year ago.
At the current sales rate, November unsold inventory sits at a 2.1-month supply, down from 2.3 month both last month and a year ago. This low supply of resale homes is good news for home construction.
Homes stayed on the market for an average of just 18 days in November, to the same as October and down from 21 days a year ago. In November, 83% of homes sold were on the market for less than a month.
The November all-cash sales share was 24% of transactions, equal to October’s share and up from 20% a year ago.
Tight supply continues to push up home prices. The November median sales price of all existing homes was $353,900, up 13.9% from a year ago, representing the 117th consecutive month of year-over-year increases, the longest-running streak on record. The median existing condominium/co-op price of $283,200 in November was up 4.4% from a year ago.
Geographically, three of four regions saw an increase in existing home sales in November, ranging from 0.7% in the Midwest to 2.9% in the South. Sales in the Northeast remained flat in November. On a year-over-year basis, however, sales declined in three major regions, ranging from 0.7% in the Midwest to 11.6% in the Northeast.
Meanwhile, the Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI) is a forward-looking indicator based on signed contracts. The PHSI increased 7.5% from 116.5 to 125.2 in October. On a year-over-year basis, sales were 1.4% lower than a year ago per the NAR data.
Since July 2021, the city has gained an estimated 6,332 permanent movers, indicating a gradual return to New York City.
Residents who fled New York City during the early days of the pandemic, particularly the wealthiest neighborhoods, are beginning to return.
New York City Comptroller Scott Stringer released a comprehensive analysis earlier this week (Nov. 15) of the pandemic’s impact on monthly migration patterns into and out of the city. Using data published by the United States Postal Service (USPS) from change of address forms, the analysis confirms that New York City’s net residential out-migration tripled from 2019 to 2020. The data show that the city’s wealthiest neighborhoods experienced the most population loss; residents in the wealthiest 10% of city neighborhoods, as measured by median income, were 4.6 times more likely to move than other residents during 2020.
In more recent months, the reopening of office buildings, the return of in-person school, and the rebirth of arts and entertainment have helped to attract movers to the city. Since July 2021, USPS data has shown an estimated net gain of 6,332 permanent movers, mainly in neighborhoods that experienced the greatest flight, according to the report.
“New York City is steadily reopening and New Yorkers are returning to the city we love—that’s why it’s vital that we invest in the value proposition that is New York City and make sure we continue to be the best place to live, work, and raise a family,” said New York City Comptroller Stringer. “That means investing in our classrooms and teachers so our children get the very best education, investing in affordable and accessible child care so parents can return to work, and investing in our streetscapes and green spaces to ensure that our neighborhoods are walkable and breathable. We have a once-in-a-generation opportunity to reimagine our city and build back stronger than ever from the losses of the pandemic.”
Despite recent gains, certain neighborhoods have a long road ahead to regain pre-pandemic population. Whether or not these gains continue and accelerate will depend on the trajectory of the pandemic and the city’s ability to maintain in-person activities and attractions, as well as the endurance of telework arrangements and workers’ ability and desire to live farther from their place of work as commuting becomes less burdensome.
Major findings of the analysis include:
• In the first three months of the pandemic, from March to May 2020, more than 60% of net moves from city addresses were marked as temporary, indicating that the person or household intended to return, but since then 79% of net moves have been marked as permanent.
• Excluding moves marked as “temporary,” net out-migration from the city increased by an estimated 130,837 from March 2020 through June 2021, as compared to pre-pandemic trends.
• Residents from the city’s wealthiest neighborhoods were the most likely to leave. Residents in the wealthiest 10% of city neighborhoods, as measured by median income, were 4.6 times more likely to leave than other residents during 2020, recording 109 net move-outs per 1,000 residents vs 24 elsewhere. Moves from wealthier neighborhoods were also more likely to be recorded as temporary. About half of net out-migration from the wealthiest 10% of neighborhoods was marked as temporary in 2020, compared to 44% in the next wealthiest decile and less than 30% elsewhere.
• In September 2021, New York City public schools and colleges opened to full-time, in-person learning; some employers, including city government, called office workers back; and the curtains rose on Broadway after an 18-month shutdown. Not surprisingly, these events coincided with an improvement in net residential migration to the city, particularly in the neighborhoods that experienced the greatest flight in the spring of 2020.
• Since July 2021, USPS data has shown an estimated net gain of 6,332 permanent movers, indicating a gradual return to New York City, mainly in neighborhoods that experienced the greatest flight. On a per-capita basis, the largest net gains over the summer were in Chelsea/Midtown, Murray Hill/Gramercy, Battery Park City/Greenwich Village, and Chinatown/Lower East Side.
S&P Dow Jones Indices (S&P DJI) today released the latest results for the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices, the leading measure of U.S. home prices. Data released today for August 2021 show that home prices continue to increase across the U.S. More than 27 years of history are available for the data series and can be accessed in full by going to https://www.spglobal.com/spdji/.
YEAR-OVER-YEAR
The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index, covering all nine U.S. census divisions, reported a 19.8% annual gain in August, remaining the same as the previous month. The 10-City Composite annual increase came in at 18.6%, down from 19.2% in the previous month. The 20-City Composite posted a 19.7% year-over-year gain, down from 20.0% in the previous month.
Phoenix, San Diego, and Tampa reported the highest year-over-year gains among the 20 cities in August. Phoenix led the way with a 33.3% year-over-year price increase, followed by San Diego with a 26.2% increase and Tampa with a 25.9% increase. Eight of the 20 cities reported higher price increases in the year ending August 2021 versus the year ending July 2021.
MONTH-OVER-MONTH
Before seasonal adjustment, the U.S. National Index posted a 1.2% month-over-month increase in August, while the 10-City and 20-City Composites both posted increases of 0.8% and 0.9%, respectively.
After seasonal adjustment, the U.S. National Index posted a month-over-month increase of 1.4%, and the 10-City and 20-City Composites both posted increases of 0.9% and 1.2%, respectively. In August, all 20 cities reported increases before and after seasonal adjustments.
ANALYSIS
“The U.S. housing market showed continuing strength in August 2021,” says Craig J. Lazzara, Managing Director and Global Head of Index Investment Strategy at S&P DJI. Every one of our city and composite indices stands at its all-time high, and year-over-year price growth continues to be very strong, although moderating somewhat from last month’s levels.
“In August 2021, the National Composite Index rose 19.84% from year-ago levels, marginally ahead of July’s 19.75% increase. This slowing acceleration was also evident in our 10- and 20-City Composites, which rose 18.6% and 19.7% respectively, modestly less than their rates of gain in July. Price gains were once again broadly distributed, as all 20 cities rose, although in most cases at a slower rate than had been the case a month ago.
“We have previously suggested that the strength in the U.S. housing market is being driven in part by a reaction to the COVID pandemic, as potential buyers move from urban apartments to suburban homes. More data will be required to understand whether this demand surge represents an acceleration of purchases that would have occurred anyway over the next several years, or reflects a secular change in locational preferences. August’s data are consistent with either explanation. August data also suggest that the growth in housing prices, while still very strong, may be beginning to decelerate.
“Phoenix’s 33.3% increase led all cities for the 27th consecutive month. San Diego (+26.2%) continued in second place, but in August, Tampa (+25.9%) edged Dallas and Seattle for the bronze medal. As has been the case for the last several months, prices were strongest in the Southwest (+24.1%), but every region logged double-digit gains.”
SUPPORTING DATA
Table 1 below shows the housing boom/bust peaks and troughs for the three composites along with the current levels and percentage changes from the peaks and troughs.
2006 Peak
2012 Trough
Current
Index
Level
Date
Level
Date
From Peak (%)
Level
From Trough (%)
From Peak (%)
National
184.61
Jul-06
134.00
Feb-12
-27.4%
268.62
100.5%
45.5%
20-City
206.52
Jul-06
134.07
Mar-12
-35.1%
274.99
105.1%
33.2%
10-City
226.29
Jun-06
146.45
Mar-12
-35.3%
287.17
96.1%
26.9%
Table 2 below summarizes the results for August 2021. The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices could be revised for the prior 24 months, based on the receipt of additional source data.
August 2021
August/July
July/June
1-Year
Metropolitan Area
Level
Change (%)
Change (%)
Change (%)
Atlanta
194.24
1.9%
2.2%
20.2%
Boston
279.48
0.5%
1.2%
17.7%
Charlotte
214.78
1.5%
2.2%
21.7%
Chicago
169.48
1.0%
1.1%
12.7%
Cleveland
157.62
0.8%
1.2%
15.5%
Dallas
250.20
1.8%
2.4%
24.6%
Denver
285.65
0.9%
1.8%
21.5%
Detroit
157.42
0.7%
1.3%
15.7%
Las Vegas
251.87
2.2%
2.8%
23.8%
Los Angeles
361.54
0.9%
1.4%
18.4%
Miami
317.83
2.3%
2.3%
23.8%
Minneapolis
217.54
0.3%
1.1%
14.0%
New York
244.05
0.5%
1.0%
17.2%
Phoenix
286.74
2.2%
3.3%
33.3%
Portland
305.22
0.8%
1.5%
19.2%
San Diego
357.11
0.5%
1.6%
26.2%
San Francisco
339.94
0.4%
1.1%
21.2%
Seattle
344.46
0.2%
0.9%
24.3%
Tampa
296.71
2.5%
2.9%
25.9%
Washington
284.92
0.6%
0.9%
15.1%
Composite-10
287.17
0.8%
1.3%
18.6%
Composite-20
274.99
0.9%
1.5%
19.7%
U.S. National
268.62
1.2%
1.7%
19.8%
Sources: S&P Dow Jones Indices and CoreLogic
Data through August 2021
Table 3 below shows a summary of the monthly changes using the seasonally adjusted (SA) and non-seasonally adjusted (NSA) data. Since its launch in early 2006, the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices have published, and the markets have followed and reported on, the non-seasonally adjusted data set used in the headline indices. For analytical purposes, S&P Dow Jones Indices publishes a seasonally adjusted data set covered in the headline indices, as well as for the 17 of 20 markets with tiered price indices and the five condo markets that are tracked.
Since July 2021, the city has gained an estimated 6,332 permanent movers, indicating a gradual return to New York City.