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US Economy Contracts .1% in 4th Qtr – Not Good for Real Estate | Bedford Hills Real Estate

US ECONOMY SHRINKS: GDP FALLS 0.1% IN Q4

Obama Flag

Pete Souza/Official White House photo

The advance estimate for fourth-quarter U.S. GDP is out.

The economy contracted 0.1 percent in Q4 versus economists’ consensus expectations of a 1.1 percent expansion.

Personal consumption growth came in at 2.2 percent – slightly higher than consensus estimates of 2.1 percent – but was driven largely by a 13.9 percent advance in the consumption of durable goods.

Government spending was the largest driver of the economic contraction in the fourth quarter, subtracting 1.33 percentage points from Q4 GDP growth and falling 6.6 percent. Federal spending fell 15.0 percent, led by a 22.2 percent drop in defense spending. Federal spending on nondefense items was actually up 1.4 percent. State and local spending fell 0.7 percent.

The drawdown in private inventories was the second culprit behind the contraction, subtracting 1.27 percentage points from Q4 GDP growth after adding 0.73 percentage points to Q3 GDP growth.

Shiller Says U.S. Housing Market May Drop Further | Bedford Hills Realtor

A U.S. housing-market revival may prove illusory and the threat of further weakness remains, said Robert Shiller, a professor at Yale University and co-creator of the S&P/Case-Shiller index of property values.

“The housing market has been declining for something like six years now, it could go on, that’s my worry,” Shiller told Tom Keene in a Bloomberg Television interview today in Davos, Switzerland. “The short-term indicators are up now, it definitely looks better, but we saw that in 2009.”

The property market has shown signs of recovery and homebuilding has rebounded as low borrowing costs spur buyer demand, bolster prices. Values rose 7.4 percent in November from a year earlier, the ninth straight increase and the biggest gain since May 2006, Irvine, California-based data provider CoreLogic said last week.

“It’s a good housing market in the sense that mortgage rates are very low and prices have come down to normal levels, so yes, it’s a good time to buy if nothing bad happens,” Shiller said. “But it’s also a very bad housing market in that most of the mortgages are being supported by the government, and we have the Fed and this buying program. It’s a very abnormal market. There’s a lot of uncertainty going forward.”

The average rate for a 30-year fixed mortgage fell to 3.38 percent in the week ended Jan. 17 from 3.4 percent, McLean, Virginia-based Freddie Mac (FMCC) said that day. The average rate dropped to a record 3.31 percent in November. New-home sales in December picked up to a 385,000 annual rate, according to the median forecast of economists surveyed by Bloomberg ahead of a Commerce Department report tomorrow.

Attending Davos

The S&P/Case-Shiller index of property values in 20 cities increased an annual 4.3 percent in October, the biggest 12-month advance since May 2010, the group said on Dec. 26. The next report is due on Jan. 29.

Data on Jan. 22 showed sales of U.S. existing homes unexpectedly fell in December. Purchases fell 1 percent to a 4.94 million annual rate last month, the National Association of Realtors said. The median forecast in a Bloomberg survey was for a gain to a 5.1 million rate.

Shiller, who spoke while attending the World Economic Forum’s 2013 annual meeting, also said that while global economic conditions are “a little better,” there are still risks to the recovery.

“We’ve been five years in a slow economy, and it could go quite a bit longer,” he said. “We’ve seen gross domestic product growth at sub-normal levels.”

He added, “I think we’re pretty far from irrational exuberance, maybe 50 years 

 

Fracking for natural gas being powered by it, too | Bedford Hills Realtor

 

 

HARRISBURG, Pa. (AP) — Advances in hydraulic fracturing technology have powered the American natural gas boom. And now hydraulic fracturing could be increasingly powered by the very fuel it has been so successful in coaxing up from the depths.

Oil- and gas-field companies from Pennsylvania to Texas are experimenting with converting the huge diesel pump engines that propel millions of gallons of water, sand and chemicals thousands of feet down well bores to break apart rock or tight sands and release the natural gas trapped inside.

It’s the latest way for drillers to become consumers of the product that they are making broadly available in large amounts — and extremely cheap. Production has increased so much that natural gas has flooded the market, dragging down prices and forcing companies to pull back on their plans to expand drilling while looking for new ways to use gas.

After the conversion, the engines will run on cheaper natural gas, or a blend of diesel and natural gas. That brings down costs and, theoretically, cuts down the sooty exhaust that comes from burning diesel.

“You’re going to see this spreading quite rapidly across the industry,” said Douglas E. Kuntz, president and CEO of Pennsylvania General Energy Co., based in tiny Warren, Pa. “As the technology evolves, you’ll see more companies across the country doing more natural gas fueling of this equipment.”

A number of increasingly cost-conscious oil- and gas-field companies are already using natural gas to run their trucks and drilling rigs. But what makes the conversion of the hydraulic fracturing pump engines to natural gas particularly challenging is the sheer number of engines running at once, and the amount of horsepower necessary to power the pumps.

PGE and contractor Universal Well Services, of Meadville, Pa., are converting a 16-engine pumping unit — called a “frack spread” — so that the engines will accept a blend of 70 percent natural gas and 30 percent diesel. It should be complete by May and is estimated to cost less than a quarter of what it would if it was powered by diesel alone.

Houston-based Apache Corp., one of the nation’s largest independent oil and gas exploration companies, has worked with Halliburton Co., Schlumberger Ltd. and Caterpillar Inc. to develop similar technology.

A 12-engine unit — the first full frack spread that is operating in the field, according to Apache — just completed two Granite Wash wells near Elk City, Okla. Another unit is in the process of being completed.

“Today we’ve said, ‘we’ve seen enough testing.’ We’ve decided this is how we want to frack with all of our fleets and we’re going to start with two permanent conversions,” said Mike Bahorich, Apache’s executive vice president and chief technology officer.

PGE will be able to use field gas, drawn from pipelines that connect to its nearby Marcellus Shale wells in north-central Pennsylvania, and save trips by fuel-hauling trucks. For now at least, Apache will have to truck in compressed natural gas or liquefied natural gas to run its new frack spreads, but it hopes to start using the cheaper field gas in the future, Bahorich said.

It also may provide a way for drilling companies to improve their image on environmental issues after sustaining criticism for air quality problems around gas wells and the practice of lacing hydraulic fracturing fluids with chemicals.

The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency calls reducing pollution from diesel engines one of the county’s most important air quality challenges. Diesel engines can produce large quantities of smog-forming nitrogen oxides and soot, which can cause lung and heart problems. Soot also plays a significant role in climate change, researchers say.

Saving the truck trips will improve air quality, but the size of the benefit from replacing diesel engines with natural gas is less clear, according to environmental advocates.

That’s because new diesel engines are subject to strict environmental standards and natural gas-powered engines give off only slightly less pollution, said Joe Osborne, legal director of the Pittsburgh-based Group Against Smog and Pollution.

Regardless, the economic benefit appears enormous for an industry that used more than 700 million gallons of diesel domestically in hydraulic fracturing last year, according to Apache estimates.

The cost to convert the engines is far less than the roughly $3.5 million per frack spread that Apache can save if it completes 140 planned wells in a year with the two units, Bahorich said.

For PGE and Universal, the cost of conversion and engineering will be several million dollars, said Roger Willis, Universal’s president. After that, the fuel price savings are eye-popping: A gallon of diesel fuel costs about $3.60, while equivalent amount of the natural gas blend replacement currently costs about 47 cents, Kuntz said.

PGE, which plans to drill 35 to 40 new Marcellus Shale wells in 2013 all with the natural gas-powered frack spread, expects to save 750,000 gallons of diesel a year, or 55 percent of the diesel in its fracking operations.

“Keeping this frack spread busy over the course of a year, you’ll be on the positive side in less than a year,” Kuntz said.

 

Top 10 Facts About Super Bowl Ads Online for 2013 | Bedford Hills Realtor

Our friends at Unruly Media have some data to share for advertisers concerning the Super Bowl.  The video measurement company is releasing these stats in tandem with their 2013 Super Bowl Playbook, which we will also cover soon.  Last year, Super Bowl ads became bigger than ever, as Unruly reports a 129% increase in shares for Super Bowl ads in 2012 from 2011’s numbers.  But Unruly found some very interesting stats that might surprise you.  Like, for instance, did you know that that initial burst of views that happen before and after the Super Bowl isn’t nearly the bulk of an ad’s overall views?

Unruly’s Top 10 Facts You Should Know About Super Bowl Advertising

Here’s how Unruly breaks it down:

1. 129% increase of shares 2011-2012 year on year.

Perhaps buoyed by the success of VW’s “The Force” in the previous year, many companies got their act online and promoted their ads like they had never done before.

2. 75% of the Top 20 most shared ads were launched before the Super Bowl.

Yeah, there’s absolutely no reason to wait until the Super Bowl to show your ad anymore.  You’re paying a ton of money to get the thing on the Super Bowl and get those tens, possibly hundreds, of millions of people watching it.  But by promoting it early, you can build a lot of buzz for the ad and gets millions of people watching it even before the game.

3. The top 4 most shared ads also had teaser videos, and 7 of the top 10 used teasers.

The most memorable were the ones featuring Matthew Broderick, teasing a Ferris-Beuller’s-Day-Off-style ad for what would eventually be the Honda CR-V ad that got so much attention, and VW’s teaser featuring dogs singing the “Darth Vader theme,” which would eventually be their hybrid dog/Star Wars ad.  Teasers get people talking, speculating, and they generate a ton of views on their own.

4. VW’s teaser actually ended up getting shared more than the Super Bowl ad.

This one:

Beat this one:

Three times more shares, actually.  That’s amazing.

5. 55% of Super Bowl 2012 shares came after March 1.

You might say, well, that’s more time to share an ad.  True, true, but also consider that the tremendous interest leveraged from the Super Bowl has died down by then, so this stat is amazing.  It shows that if you make great, memorable content, it can play all year.

6. 92% of shares came from the top 20 Super Bowl ads.

What this means is that there is a lot of room for many brands to try to get a piece of this pie.  Brands should be using online more, especially since it’s free and promotion of great content can lead to tons of extra views.

7. Automotive was the most shared vertical of 2012, a 137.5% increase from 2011.

Brands like Honda, Chevrolet, and VW dominated this category.  This is another area where competing car companies could do better, because only a few brands dominate the landscape.

8. Speaking of which, VW is the most shared brand over the last 2 years.

In 2011, VW led Chrysler and Doritos by a large margin.  In 2012, VW edged out Chevrolet and Honda.

9. The top 10 Super Bowl ads of 2012 were on average 83 seconds long, up 31 seconds from 2011.

With online video, brands can tell a longer story, putting extra stuff they couldn’t fit into their Super Bowl ad, and people are more likely to watch the ad when it’s not the same, old 30-second ad they saw on TV.

10. VW’s “The Force” is the most shared Super Bowl ad and most shared ad of all time.

Unruly measured it at 5.57 million shares, with VW Passats increasing sales by 116%.

I’m looking forward to seeing what Unruly has found for advertisers in their playbook, and of course, what advertisers have in store for 2013.