Elevated mortgage rates, high construction costs for concrete and other building materials, and weakening demand stemming from deteriorating affordability conditions continue to act as a drag on single-family housing production.
Overall housing starts decreased 4.2% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.43 million units in October, according to data from the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development and the U.S. Census Bureau.
The October reading of 1.43 million starts is the number of housing units builders would begin if development kept this pace for the next 12 months. Within this overall number, single-family starts decreased 6.1% to an 855,000 seasonally adjusted annual rate. Year-to-date, single-family starts are down 7.1%. This decline mirrors the decline in the NAHB/Wells Fargo HMI, which has now contracted for 11 straight months and fallen to a level of 33. Higher interest rates in particular have reduced buyer traffic and priced out demand from the market.
This will be the first year since 2011 to post a calendar year decline for single-family starts. We are forecasting additional declines for single-family construction in 2023, which means economic slowing will expand from the residential construction market into the rest of the economy. Home prices are now falling, and there has not been a period in recent decades during which homes prices have declined and a recession has not occurred.
The multifamily sector, which includes apartment buildings and condos, decreased 1.2% to an annualized 570,000 pace but continues at a strong, likely too strong, pace. Multifamily starts will decline in 2023 as the effects of tighter financing and a rising unemployment rate takes hold.
On a regional and year-to-date basis, combined single-family and multifamily starts are 2.9% higher in the Northeast, 1.5% lower in the Midwest, 2.6% higher in the South and 5.1% lower in the West.
Overall permits decreased 2.4% to a 1.53 million unit annualized rate in October. Single-family permits decreased 3.6% to an 839,000 unit rate. Multifamily permits decreased 1% to an annualized 687,000 pace. Looking at regional permit data on a year-to-date basis, permits are 2.8% lower in the Northeast, 0.2% higher in the Midwest, 1.1% higher in the South and 4.0% lower in the West.
As an indicator of the economic impact of housing, there are now 794,000 single-family homes under construction. This is 9% higher than a year ago. However, the count of such homes is down from 828,000 in May, off 4% as starts slow. There are currently 928,000 apartments under construction (2+ unit properties), up 26% from a year ago with this number continuing to rise. Strikingly, this total is the highest level since December 1973. This volume will place downward pressure on multifamily starts in 2023.
Total housing units now under construction (single-family and multifamily combined) is 18% higher than a year ago. The number of single-family units in the construction pipeline is falling and will continue to decline in the months ahead given recent declines in buyer traffic and higher interest rates.
Freddie Mac today released the results of its Primary Mortgage Market Survey, showing that the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage (FRM) averaged 5.89 percent.
“Mortgage rates rose again as markets continue to manage the prospect of more aggressive monetary policy due to elevated inflation,” said Sam Khater, Freddie Mac’s Chief Economist. “Not only are mortgage rates rising but the dispersion of rates has increased, suggesting that borrowers can meaningfully benefit from shopping around for a better rate. Our research indicates that borrowers could save an average of $1,500 over the life of a loan by getting one additional rate quote and an average of about $3,000 if they get five quotes.”
News Facts
30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 5.89 percent with an average 0.7 point as of September 8, 2022, up from last week when it averaged 5.66 percent. A year ago at this time, the 30-year FRM averaged 2.88 percent. 15-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 5.16 percent with an average 0.8 point, up from last week when it averaged 4.98 percent. A year ago at this time, the 15-year FRM averaged 2.19 percent. 5-year Treasury-indexed hybrid adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) averaged 4.64 percent with an average 0.4 point, up from last week when it averaged 4.51 percent. A year ago at this time, the 5-year ARM averaged 2.42 percent. The PMMS is focused on conventional, conforming, fully amortizing home purchase loans for borrowers who put 20 percent down and have excellent credit. Average commitment rates should be reported along with average fees and points to reflect the total upfront cost of obtaining the mortgage. Visit the following link for the Definitions. Borrowers may still pay closing costs which are not included in the survey.
Freddie Mac makes home possible for millions of families and individuals by providing mortgage capital to lenders. Since our creation by Congress in 1970, we’ve made housing more accessible and affordable for homebuyers and renters in communities nationwide. We are building a better housing finance system for homebuyers, renters, lenders, investors and taxpayers. Learn more at FreddieMac.com, Twitter @FreddieMac and Freddie Mac’s blog FreddieMac.com/blog.
Home price increases slowed ever so slightly in April, but it is the first potential sign of a cooling in prices.
Prices rose 20.4% nationally in April compared with the same month a year ago, according to the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Index. In March, home prices grew 20.6%. The last slight deceleration was in November of last year.
The 10-city composite annual increase was 19.7%, up from 19.5% in March. The 20-city composite posted a 21.2% annual gain, up from 21.1% in the previous month.
In a change from the last five months, when most of the 20 cities saw month-to-month price gains, only nine cities saw prices rise faster in April than they had done in March. Cities in the South continued to see the strongest monthly gains, including Charlotte, North Carolina; Tampa, Florida; Atlanta, Dallas and Miami.
“April 2022 showed initial (although inconsistent) signs of a deceleration in the growth rate of U.S. home prices,” Craig Lazzara, managing director at S&P DJI, wrote in a release. “We continue to observe very broad strength in the housing market, as all 20 cities notched double-digit price increases for the 12 months ended in April. April’s price increase ranked in the top quintile of historical experience for every city, and in the top decile for 19 of them.”
Tampa, Miami and Phoenix continued to lead the pack with the strongest price gains. Tampa home prices were up, with a stunning 35.8% year-over-year price increase, followed by Miami, with a 33.3% increase, and Phoenix, with a 31.3% increase. Nine of the 20 cities reported higher price increases in the year ending April 2022 versus the year ending March 2022.
Cities with the smallest gains, although still in double digits, were Minneapolis, Washington and Chicago.
Not only are these price gains for April, but the index is a three-month moving average. The average rate on the 30-year fixed mortgage just crossed the 5% mark in April after rising from around 3% in January. By June it had crossed 6%.
“We noted last month that mortgage financing has become more expensive as the Federal Reserve ratchets up interest rates, a process that had only just begun when April data were gathered,” said Lazzara. “A more challenging macroeconomic environment may not support extraordinary home price growth for much longer.”
The housing market is already cooling, with slower sales and reports of price drops among some sellers. The supply of homes for sale has also increased steadily, as more listings come on the market and homes already on it sit longer. Active inventory last week was 21% higher than it was the same week one year ago, according to Realtor.com.
“For buyers and sellers, the road ahead will require more flexibility in pricing, brushing up on negotiation skills, and acknowledging that market conditions today are different than even six months ago,” said George Ratiu, senior economist at Realtor.com.
WASHINGTON (May 26, 2022) – Pending home sales slipped in April, as contract activity decreased for the sixth consecutive month, the National Association of Realtors® reported. Only the Midwest region saw signings increase month-over-month, while the other three major regions reported declines. Each of the four regions registered a drop in year-over-year contract activity.
The Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI),* www.nar.realtor/pending-home-sales, a forward-looking indicator of home sales based on contract signings, slid 3.9% to 99.3 in April. Year-over-year, transactions fell 9.1%. An index of 100 is equal to the level of contract activity in 2001.
“Pending contracts are telling, as they better reflect the timelier impact from higher mortgage rates than do closings,” said Lawrence Yun, NAR’s chief economist. “The latest contract signings mark six consecutive months of declines and are at the slowest pace in nearly a decade.”
With mortgage rates rising, Yun forecasts existing-home sales to wane by 9% in 2022 and home price appreciation to moderate to 5% by year’s end.
“The escalating mortgage rates have bumped up the cost of purchasing a home by more than 25% from a year ago, while steeper home prices are adding another 15% to that figure.”
In some cases, these higher rates increase mortgage payments by as much as $500 per month. Yun notes that such price hikes are already a burden, but they become even more problematic to a family on a budget contending with rapid inflation, including surging fuel and food costs.
“The vast majority of homeowners are enjoying huge wealth gains and are not under financial stress with their home as a result of having locked into historically low interest rates, or because they are not carrying a mortgage,” Yun explained. “However – in this present market – potential homebuyers are challenged and thus may attempt to mitigate the rising cost of ownership by opting for a 5-year adjustable-rate mortgage or by widening their geographic search area to more affordable regions.”
Yun cites that more work-from-home opportunities have allowed would-be buyers to expand their home search.
There are scenarios in which the market soon improves for buyers, as well, according to Yun.
“If mortgage rates stabilize roughly at the current level of 5.3% and job gains continue, home sales could also stabilize in the coming months,” Yun said. “Home sales in 2022 are expected to be down about 9%, and if mortgage rates climb to 6%, then the sales activity could fall by 15%.
“Home prices in the meantime appear in no danger of any meaningful decline,” he continued. “There is an ongoing housing shortage, and properly listed homes are still selling swiftly – generally seeing a contract signed within a month.”
April Pending Home Sales Regional Breakdown
Month-over-month, the Northeast PHSI fell 16.20% to 74.8 in April, a 14.3% drop from a year ago. In the Midwest, the index rose 6.6% to 100.7 last month, down 2.8% from April 2021.
Pending home sales transactions in the South dipped 4.7% to an index of 119.0 in April, down 10.3% from April 2021. The index in the West slipped 4.3% in April to 85.9, a 10.5% decrease from a year prior.
The National Association of Realtors® is America’s largest trade association, representing more than 1.5 million members involved in all aspects of the residential and commercial real estate industries.
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*The Pending Home Sales Index is a leading indicator for the housing sector, based on pending sales of existing homes. A sale is listed as pending when the contract has been signed but the transaction has not closed, though the sale usually is finalized within one or two months of signing.
Pending contracts are good early indicators of upcoming sales closings. However, the amount of time between pending contracts and completed sales is not identical for all home sales. Variations in the length of the process from pending contract to closed sale can be caused by issues such as buyer difficulties with obtaining mortgage financing, home inspection problems, or appraisal issues.
The index is based on a sample that covers about 40% of multiple listing service data each month. In developing the model for the index, it was demonstrated that the level of monthly sales-contract activity parallels the level of closed existing-home sales in the following two months.
An index of 100 is equal to the average level of contract activity during 2001, which was the first year to be examined. By coincidence, the volume of existing-home sales in 2001 fell within the range of 5.0 to 5.5 million, which is considered normal for the current U.S. population.
NOTE: Existing-Home Sales for May will be reported June 21. The next Pending Home Sales Index will be June 27; all release times are 10:00 a.m. ET.
WHITE PLAINS—Residential sales in the first quarter of 2022 in the counties served by OneKey MLS, LLC were down from the historic peaks of 2021, but still posted strong results when compared with 2019 and 2020. The one county served by OneKey MLS that posted stronger numbers in 2022 compared to 2021 was Bronx County which was up 6.1% with 613 residential sales posted in the first quarter.
Residential sales, which include single-family homes, condominiums, co-operatives and 2-4 family multi-family homes, decreased 6.3% in Westchester County, a 28.1% decrease in Putnam County, a 11.6% decrease in Rockland County, a 14.7% decrease in Orange County, and a 19.8% decrease in Sullivan County. One bright spot when comparing 2022 sales to 2021 sales was the condominium market in Westchester County, which saw a 27.8% increase in the number of transactions.
While these overall decreases may seem significant at first glance, the significance is diminished when viewed over a two-year period. When comparing the 2022 first quarter residential sales numbers to the first quarter of 2020, the sales numbers in Westchester County increased 26.9%, Putnam County increased 16.7%, Rockland County increased 21.2%, Orange County increased 31.7%, Sullivan County increased 30.5% and Bronx County increased 42.2%.
In all areas served by OneKey MLS, single-family median sales prices continued to rise, with a modest increase of 2.7% in Westchester County, a 21.8% increase in Putnam County, a 14.9% increase in Rockland County, a 10.3% increase in Orange County, a 20.3% increase in Sullivan County and an 11% increase in Bronx County.
For the first quarter of 2022, the average median sales price for single-family homes in Westchester County was $729,000, the average median sales price in Putnam County was $475,038, the average median sales price for Rockland County was $600,000, the average median sales price in Orange County was $375,000, the average median sales price in Sullivan County was $267,000, and the average median sales price for single family homes in Bronx County was $600,000 for the first quarter of 2022.
It has been apparent for some time that affordability issues are becoming critical in many parts of OneKey’s geography. In 2019, the average median sales price for a single-family home in Westchester County was $600,000, compared with $729,000 for the first quarter of 2022, a 21.5% increase over a three-year period. The fact that the Westchester median sales price increase was the smallest compared to the other OneKey counties at 2.7% YOY may be a sign of sales prices beginning to stabilize and moderate.
A dearth of inventory continues to plague the market in all parts of OneKey’s footprint, and days on market continue to decline. The market is also facing the dual headwinds of rising interest rates and increasing inflation. However, the market continues to exhibit strength in spite of these headwinds as the economy in the Hudson Valley, greater New York City and suburban area continues to rebound from the pandemic. All in all, 2022 is off to a solid start, the OneKey MLS report states. Click Here to read the full report.
Home building ended 2021 with strong annual gains as demand accelerated in the wake of the pandemic. These annual gains were realized despite supply-chain limitations for materials and ongoing access issues for labor and lots. Single-family starts ended 2021 with a 13.4% increase for a total of 1.123 million starts. Multifamily 5+ unit construction ended the year with a 22.1% gain, for a total of 460,100 starts. A component of the missing middle, 2 to 4 unit construction showed a decline for 2021, a 2.8% drop.
For the month of December, overall housing starts increased 1.4% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.7 million units, according to a report from the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development and the U.S. Census Bureau. The December reading of 1.7 million starts is the number of housing units builders would begin if development kept this pace for the next 12 months. Within this overall number, single-family starts decreased 2.3% for the month to a 1.17 million seasonally adjusted annual rate. The multifamily sector, which includes apartment buildings and condos, increased 10.6% to an annualized 536,000 pace in December.
Due to supply-chain effects, there are 144,000 single-family units authorized but not started construction—up 38.5% from a year ago. However, this total is down from a cycle high in October of 154,000.
In January, single-family builder confidence decreased one point to a level 83 on strong buyer demand, according to the NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI). After peaking at a level of 90 in November 2020, builders have reported ongoing concerns over elevated lumber and other construction costs, as well as delays in obtaining building materials. The NAHB forecast projects growing labor shortages as the overall unemployment rate trends lower in the quarters ahead.
While the single-family sector cooled at the start of 2021, off the unsustainable seasonally adjusted pace of last Winter, recent readings, including the HMI, suggest ongoing stabilization. The December read of housing starts is consistent with this analysis. In fact, single-family permits showed strength for the month, rising 2% and up 13.4% for 2021.
Multifamily construction continues to expand strongly on declining vacancies and rising rents. For December, 5+ unit production was up 13.7% to a 524,000 annualized rate. This momentum will continue in 2022.
On a regional and year-to-date basis, combined single-family and multifamily starts are 22.2% higher in the Northeast, 10.9% higher in the Midwest, 15.3% higher in the South and 16.9% higher in the West.
As an indicator of the economic impact of housing, there are now 769,000 single-family homes under construction. This is 26% higher than a year ago. There are currently 750,000 apartments under construction, up 15% from a year ago. Total housing units now under construction (single-family and multifamily combined) is 20% higher than a year ago.
Overall permits increased 9.1% to a 1.87 million unit annualized rate in December. Single-family permits increased 2% to a 1.12 million unit rate. Multifamily 5+ unit permits increased 19.9% to an annualized 675,000 pace.
Looking at regional permit data on a year-to-date basis, permits are 22.4% higher in the Northeast, 14.4% higher in the Midwest, 16.3% higher in the South and 19% higher in the West.
New York Gov. Kathy Hochul signed a package of nine bills geared to addressing bias and discrimination in the real estate industry in New York State.
ALBANY—New York Gov. Kathy Hochul signed a legislative package on Dec. 21 totaling nine bills geared at combating housing discrimination and addressing issues raised in a Newsday expose entitled “Long Island Divided.”
The centerpiece of the legislation is the Anti-Discrimination in Housing Fund that will permit the state to conduct fair housing testing. Other initiatives included in the bills signed into law range from increasing training and raising the maximum fines for misconduct by real estate brokers and salespersons, to emphasizing that all state and local agencies that administer state housing programs have an obligation to “affirmatively further fair housing.” These new bills, spearheaded by Senate Housing Committee Chair Brian Kavanagh and Assembly Housing Committee Chair Steven Cymbrowitz, will ensure the real estate workforce is well versed in fair housing practices and that the new fund is sufficiently resourced to carry out its intended purpose, New York State officials said.
The Newsday expose published in November 2019 was the culmination of a three-year investigation that uncovered widespread evidence of unequal treatment by real estate agents on Long Island and both explicit and implicit bias that exists in the real estate industry. The expose led to State Senate hearings and some disciplinary actions taken against some of the agents identified in the series.
“For too long, the dream of owning a home has been out of reach for too many New Yorkers because of discrimination and bigotry,” said Gov. Hochul. “When intrepid investigative journalists uncovered housing discrimination in New York, we took action to end this unacceptable practice. I’m proud to sign strong new laws expanding access to fair housing and allowing more New Yorkers to achieve the American dream of owning their homes.”
In a prepared statement, the New York State Association of Realtors stated in response to the housing discrimination bills signed into law: “The New York State Association of Realtors, Inc. (NYSAR) was proud to have worked with state lawmakers over the last two years to strengthen fair housing laws in New York State. We commend Governor Hochul and the State Legislature for their actions and their willingness to work with Realtors and other industry partners toward reasonable solutions that enhance fair housing education for all real estate licensees and increase penalties for bad actors who violate the law. There is no place for illegal discrimination, whether it be in housing or elsewhere. The New York State Association of Realtors Inc. is committed to educating our members about these new laws and regulations and will promote strict compliance.”
NYSAR also noted, “Realtors have a long history of opposing illegal housing discrimination and have consistently sought constructive fair housing solutions. We look forward to continuing to work with Governor Hochul and state lawmakers on additional fair housing initiatives to the benefit of all residents of New York State.”
The following is a rundown of the new housing discrimination legislation signed into law by the governor.
Creation of the Anti-Discrimination in Housing Fund
Legislation (S.945-B/A.6866) establishes an Anti-Discrimination in Housing Fund, a portion of which will be supported by fines collected for violations of anti-discrimination sections of the real property law. This bill increases the fine ceiling from $1,000 to $2,000 and then diverts 50% of the revenue from these fines to the Anti-Discrimination in Housing Fund. This fund will be available to the Office of the Attorney General for fair housing testing which will allocate grants to various government and non-governmental entities specializing in anti-housing discrimination.
Increasing Fines and Adding a Surcharge to Licensing Fees
Legislation (S.2133-A/A.5363) adds a surcharge to licensing and re-licensing fees for real estate brokers and salespersons to be used for statewide fair housing efforts. The surcharge, an additional $30 for brokers and an additional $10 for salespersons, will be deposited into the Anti-Discrimination in Housing Fund for fair housing testing efforts.
State Senator James Skoufis said, “Following Newsday‘s 2019 exposé on housing discrimination, my colleagues and I opened a year-long investigation into predatory practices in real estate. We held multiple joint hearings, issued 25 subpoenas to compel uncooperative Realtors and their firms to testify, and ultimately produced a wide-ranging investigative report with many legislative recommendations to tighten regulation of this often abusive industry. By signing this package of fair housing bills, Governor Hochul is sending a clear message to housing interests across New York that all homebuyers deserve to be treated with dignity and fairness.”
State and Local Agencies Have an Obligation to Fair Housing
Legislation (S.1353-A/A.5428-A) requires all state and local agencies administering housing programs or enforcing housing laws that receive state funding to affirmatively further fair housing. Agencies must take meaningful steps to further fair housing. Pursuant to an agreement with the legislature, the Commissioner must report significant steps taken to in line with this obligation every five years, with interim reporting in year two and year four.
Increases Required Fair Housing Training for Real Estate Professionals
Legislation (S.2132-B/A.5359) increases required trainings for real estate professionals, particularly trainings related to fair housing. Trainings are required to include, but are not limited to courses on:
• The legacy of segregation, unequal treatment, and historic lack of access to housing opportunities;
• Unequal access to amenities and resources on the basis of race, disability and other protected characteristics;
• Federal, state, and local fair housing laws and
•Anti-bias training.
The bill is designed to prevent the unequal treatment of minority homebuyers by increasing overall instructional training as well as instructional training pertaining to fair housing and discrimination in the real estate industry.
Requires Implicit Bias Training for Real Estate Brokers or Salespersons
Legislation (S.538-B/S.4638-A) requires an additional two hours of training relating to implicit bias for real estate brokers and salespersons as part of their license renewal process. During investigations into the issues brought to light by “Long Island Divided,” it became apparent that many real estate professionals were unaware of the impact implicit bias could have in their industry, state officials said. The bill ensures that all real estate professionals are made aware of how harmful implicit bias can be and how to ensure they follow fair housing guidelines.
Requires Cultural Competency Training for Real Estate Brokers or Salespersons
Legislation (S.979-A/A.844-A) requires that coursework on cultural competency be included in the curriculum for real estate broker and salesperson license qualification, and requires an additional two hours of training for real estate professionals in comprehensive cultural competency prior to renewing broker or salesperson licenses. This will help decrease discrimination in the real estate industry, and further educate real estate professionals to ensure they follow fair housing practices.
Requiring Standardized Intake Procedures for Real Estate Professionals
Legislation (S.2131-A/A.6186) requires standardized client intake procedures for real estate brokers and allows for a penalty to be imposed on any real estate broker or salesperson who fails to comply. Pursuant to an agreement with the legislature, real estate professionals must post and maintain their standardized operating procedures at their offices for inspection by the Department of State and the public. The bill allows for client intake procedures to be monitored and standardized, preventing discriminatory practices.
Requires Associate Brokers Serving as Office Managers to Supervise Other Real Estate Professionals
Legislation (S.2157-A/A.6355) requires associate real estate brokers who serve as office mangers to supervise other real estate professionals in their office. Office managers must have been active in the real estate industry two of the four years before beginning duties as office manager. Real estate brokers are responsible for maintaining and supervising their place of business, unlike associate brokers who have the same licensing but have chosen to work under the supervision of another broker. The legislation clarifies the required level of supervision and strengthens existing Department of State regulations. In addition, the legislation specifies the length of time an associate broker is required to work prior to becoming an office manager and will therefore ensure offices are appropriately supervised by experienced real estate professionals.
Creating a Telephone Line for Housing Discrimination Complaints
Legislation (S.3437-C/A.2300-C) establishes a dedicated telephone line for housing discrimination complaints. This telephone line will be run by the Division of Human Rights and will provide assistance to those experiencing housing discrimination. This will create a more efficient process for reporting incidents of housing discrimination.
An expected impact of the virus crisis is a need for more residential space, as people use homes for more purposes including work. Recent data confirms this impact on the market continues to occur.
According to third quarter 2021 data from the Census Quarterly Starts and Completions by Purpose and Design and NAHB analysis, median single-family square floor area increased to 2,337 square feet. Average (mean) square footage for new single-family homes increased to 2,541.
Since Great Recession lows (and on a one-year moving average basis), the average size of new single-family homes is now 6.2% higher at 2,518 square feet, while the median size is 9.3% higher at 2,296 square feet.
Home size rose from 2009 to 2015 as entry-level new construction was constrained. Home size declined between 2016 and 2020 as more starter homes were developed. Going forward we expect home size to increase again, given a shift in consumer preferences for more space due to the increased use and roles of homes (for work, for study) in the post-Covid-19 environment.
Through September 2021 with Forecasts from September 2022
Introduction
The CoreLogic Home Price Insights report features an interactive view of our Home Price Index product with analysis through September 2021 with forecasts from September 2022.
CoreLogic HPI™ is designed to provide an early indication of home price trends. The indexes are fully revised with each release and employ techniques to signal turning points sooner. CoreLogic HPI Forecasts™ (with a 30-year forecast horizon), project CoreLogic HPI levels for two tiers—Single-Family Combined (both Attached and Detached) and Single-Family Combined excluding distressed sales.
The report is published monthly with coverage at the national, state and Core Based Statistical Area (CBSA)/Metro level and includes home price indices (including distressed sale); home price forecast and market condition indicators. The data incorporates more than 40 years of repeat-sales transactions for analyzing home price trends.
HPI National Change
September 2021 National Home Prices
Home prices nationwide, including distressed sales, increased year over year by 18% in September 2021 compared with September 2020. On a month-over-month basis, home prices increased by 1.1% in September 2021 compared with August 2021 (revisions with public records data are standard, and to ensure accuracy, CoreLogic incorporates the newly released public data to provide updated results).
Forecast Prices Nationally
The CoreLogic HPI Forecast indicates that home prices will increase on a month-over-month basis by 0.1% from September 2021 to October 2021, and on a year-over-year basis by 1.9% from September 2021 to September 2022.
“The pandemic led prospective buyers to seek detached homes in communities with lower population density, such as suburbs and exurbs. As we head into 2022, we expect some moderation in the current pattern of flight away from urban cores as the pandemic wanes.”
-Frank Martell President and CEO of CoreLogic
HPI & Case-Shiller Trends
This graph shows a comparison of the national year-over-year percent change for the CoreLogic HPI and CoreLogic Case-Shiller Index from 2000 to present month with forecasts one year into the future. We note that both the CoreLogic HPI Single Family Combined tier and the CoreLogic Case-Shiller Index are posting positive, but moderating year-over-year percent changes, and forecasting gains for the next year.
Economic Impact on Home Prices
Demand for homebuying remained strong through the end of the summer. However, the ongoing housing supply shortage has continued to drive up prices, which increased 18% year over year in September, to record highs creating additional challenges for entry into the homebuying market. High demand and low supply levels for entry-level homes, in particular, are sidelining many would-be first-time buyers.
As millennials continue to make up a large part of homebuying demand and flock to tech hubs like Seattle; San Jose, California and Austin, Texas, we may see this challenge intensify. This is reflected in a recent CoreLogic consumer survey, with 47.9% of this cohort stating they cannot afford to purchase a home in their preferred area.
“Remote work has allowed many employees to buy homes further away from their office. These homes are often in the suburbs or exurbs, where property prices and population density are lower and single-family detached housing more common.”
– Dr. Frank Nothaft Chief Economist for CoreLogic
HPI National and State Maps – September 2021
The CoreLogic HPI provides measures for multiple market segments, referred to as tiers, based on property type, price, time between sales, loan type (conforming vs. non-conforming) and distressed sales. Broad national coverage is available from the national level down to ZIP Code, including non-disclosure states.
Nationally, home prices increased 18% year over year in September. No states posted an annual decline in home prices. The states with the highest increases year-over-year were Idaho (30.1%) and Arizona (29.6%).
HPI Top 10 Metros Change
The CoreLogic HPI provides measures for multiple market segments, referred to as tiers, based on property type, price, time between sales, loan type (conforming vs. non-conforming) and distressed sales. Broad national coverage is available from the national level down to ZIP Code, including non-disclosure states.
These large cities continue to experience price increases in September, with Phoenix leading the way at 31% year over year.
Markets to Watch: Top Markets at Risk of Home Price Decline
While home price changes on the local level vary, September gains across all of the top 10 metros surpassed their 2020 levels. However, metro areas where affordability constraints are prevalent continue to persist as prices rise. For instance, in September, home prices in San Diego increased 22.6% year over year and are forecasted to increase an additional 6.5% over the next 12 months.
Conversely, The HPI Forecast also reveals the continued disparity in home price growth across metros. In markets like Houston, which was hit hard by the collapse of the oil industry and the recent hurricane season, home prices are expected to decline 1.6% by September 2022.
The CoreLogic Market Risk Indicator (MRI), a monthly update of the overall health of housing markets across the country, predicts that metros such Springfield, Massachusett, and Merced, California are at the highest risk (above 70% probability) of a decline in home prices over the next 12 months. Norwich-New London, Connecticut; Reading, Pennsylvia; and Worcester, Massachusetts are also at high risk (50-70%) of a decline.
Summary
CoreLogic HPI features deep, broad coverage, including non-disclosure state data. The index is built from industry-leading real-estate public record, servicing, and securities databases—including more than 40 years of repeat-sales transaction data—and all undergo strict pre-boarding assessment and normalization processes.
CoreLogic HPI and HPI Forecasts both provide multi-tier market evaluations based on price, time between sales, property type, loan type (conforming vs. non-conforming) and distressed sales, helping clients hone in on price movements in specific market segments.
Updated monthly, the index is the fastest home-price valuation information in the industry—complete home-price index datasets five weeks after month’s end. The Index is completely refreshed each month—all pricing history from 1976 to the current month—to provide the most up-to-date, accurate indication of home-price movements available.
Methodology
The CoreLogic HPI™ is built on industry-leading public record, servicing and securities real-estate databases and incorporates more than 40 years of repeat-sales transactions for analyzing home price trends. Generally released on the first Tuesday of each month with an average five-week lag, the CoreLogic HPI is designed to provide an early indication of home price trends by market segment and for the “Single-Family Combined” tier, representing the most comprehensive set of properties, including all sales for single-family attached and single-family detached properties. The indices are fully revised with each release and employ techniques to signal turning points sooner. The CoreLogic HPI provides measures for multiple market segments, referred to as tiers, based on property type, price, time between sales, loan type (conforming vs. non-conforming) and distressed sales. Broad national coverage is available from the national level down to ZIP Code, including non-disclosure states.
CoreLogic HPI Forecasts™are based on a two-stage, error-correction econometric model that combines the equilibrium home price—as a function of real disposable income per capita—with short-run fluctuations caused by market momentum, mean-reversion, and exogenous economic shocks like changes in the unemployment rate. With a 30-year forecast horizon, CoreLogic HPI Forecasts project CoreLogic HPI levels for two tiers — “Single-Family Combined” (both attached and detached) and “Single-Family Combined Excluding Distressed Sales.” As a companion to the CoreLogic HPI Forecasts, Stress-Testing Scenarios align with Comprehensive Capital Analysis and Review (CCAR) national scenarios to project five years of home prices under baseline, adverse and severely adverse scenarios at state, metropolitan areas and ZIP Code levels. The forecast accuracy represents a 95% statistical confidence interval with a +/- 2% margin of error for the index.
About Market Risk Indicator
Market Risk Indicators are a subscription-based analytics solution that provide monthly updates on the overall “health” of housing markets across the country. CoreLogic data scientists combine world-class analytics with detailed economic and housing data to help determine the likelihood of a housing bubble burst in 392 major metros and all 50 states. Market Risk Indicators is a multi-phase regression model that provides a probability score (from 1 to 100) on the likelihood of two scenarios per metro: a >10% price reduction and a ≤ 10% price reduction. The higher the score, the higher the risk of a price reduction.
About the CoreLogic Consumer Housing Sentiment Study 3,000+ consumers were surveyed by CoreLogic via Qualtrics. The study is an annual pulse of U.S. housing market dynamics concentrated on consumers looking to purchase a home, consumers not looking to purchase a home, and current mortgage holder. The survey was conducted in April 2021 and hosted on Qualtrics.
The survey has a sampling error of ~3% at the total respondent level with a 95% confidence level.
Source: CoreLogic The data provided are for use only by the primary recipient or the primary recipient’s publication or broadcast. This data may not be resold, republished or licensed to any other source, including publications and sources owned by the primary recipient’s parent company without prior written permission from CoreLogic. Any CoreLogic data used for publication or broadcast, in whole or in part, must be sourced as coming from CoreLogic, a data and analytics company. For use with broadcast or web content, the citation must directly accompany first reference of the data. If the data are illustrated with maps, charts, graphs or other visual elements, the CoreLogic logo must be included on screen or website.
For questions, analysis or interpretation of the data, contact Amy Brennan at newsmedia@corelogic.com. Data provided may not be modified without the prior written permission of CoreLogic. Do not use the data in any unlawful manner. The data are compiled from public records, contributory databases and proprietary analytics, and its accuracy is dependent upon these sources.
Illustrated Report Highlights
As a courtesy you can download the national historic HPI data here. (Note: this link is a national historical trend report and not the current month CoreLogic Home Price Insights report).
About CoreLogic
CoreLogic is a leading global property information, analytics and data-enabled solutions provider. The company’s combined data from public, contributory and proprietary sources includes over 4.5 billion records spanning more than 50 years, providing detailed coverage of property, mortgages and other encumbrances, consumer credit, tenancy, location, hazard risk and related performance information. The markets CoreLogic serves include real estate and mortgage finance, insurance, capital markets, and the public sector. CoreLogic delivers value to clients through unique data, analytics, workflow technology, advisory and managed services. Clients rely on CoreLogic to help identify and manage growth opportunities, improve performance and mitigate risk. Headquartered in Irvine, Calif., CoreLogic operates in North America, Western Europe and Asia Pacific. For more information, please visit www.corelogic.com.
CORELOGIC, the CoreLogic logo, CoreLogic HPI, CoreLogic HPI Forecast and HPI are trademarks of CoreLogic, Inc. and/or its subsidiaries.
“Mortgage rates continue to drift down as markets concur with the view that inflation increases are temporary,” said Sam Khater, Freddie Mac’s Chief Economist. “While mortgage rates are low, purchase demand has weakened over the last couple of months, primarily due to affordability constraints stemming from high home prices. With inventory tight, the slowdown in demand has yet to impact prices, meaning the summer will likely remain a strong seller’s market.”
News Facts
30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 2.93 percent with an average 0.7 point for the week ending June 17, 2021, down from last week when it averaged 2.96 percent. A year ago at this time, the 30-year FRM averaged 3.13 percent.
15-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 2.24 percent with an average 0.6 point, up slightly from last week when it averaged 2.23 percent. A year ago at this time, the 15-year FRM averaged 2.58 percent.
5-year Treasury-indexed hybrid adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) averaged 2.52 percent with an average 0.3 point, down from last week when it averaged 2.55 percent. A year ago at this time, the 5-year ARM averaged 3.09 percent.
The PMMS is focused on conventional, conforming, fully amortizing home purchase loans for borrowers who put 20 percent down and have excellent credit. Average commitment rates should be reported along with average fees and points to reflect the total upfront cost of obtaining the mortgage. Visit the following link for the Definitions. Borrowers may still pay closing costs which are not included in the survey.
Freddie Mac makes home possible for millions of families and individuals by providing mortgage capital to lenders. Since our creation by Congress in 1970, we’ve made housing more accessible and affordable for homebuyers and renters in communities nationwide. We are building a better housing finance system for homebuyers, renters, lenders, investors and taxpayers.
New York Gov. Kathy Hochul signed a package of nine bills geared to addressing bias and discrimination in the real estate industry in New York State.
