Tag Archives: Armonk Realtor

Armonk Realtor

New Credit Risk Scoring Promises to Qualify More Borrowers | Armonk Homes

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Evidence is growing that more borrowers will be approved for a mortgage without increasing risk to lenders through more sophisticated credit risk scoring that uses alternative data, such as unsecured credit and property history in consumer credit report analysis, according to a new report by the CEB TowerGroup.

“Traditional credit data and analytics continue to be relevant, but are not sufficient to satisfy the consumer credit reformation of today,” said the CEB TowerGroup’s senior research director, Craig Focardi. “As a result of the changes in consumer behavior, lenders cannot revert back to their prior mortgage underwriting policies. Too much damage has already been done to the market, consumers, shareholders and investors.”

CEB TowerGroup evaluated data from a joint analysis conducted by CoreLogic and FICO that compares the FICO® Score used by most lenders today with a new score launched in July that evaluates the traditional credit data from national credit data repositories and the unique alternative credit data contained in the recently launched CoreScoreTM credit report. The analysis of 300,000 mortgage applications found that 3,100 more applicants would receive a qualifying credit score of 700 and approximately 70 percent of a sample population saw their credit score improve.

The report included a joint analysis by CoreLogic and FICO that found that report shows that enhancing the process of determining risk with new alternative data and analytics would allow lenders to approve loan applications that might otherwise be denied, or deny problem loans that might otherwise be approved. Both outcomes would help consumers and the market itself,” said Tim Grace, senior vice president of Product Management at CoreLogic.

The report, titled “Enhanced Credit Data and Scoring: Deeper Insight into Mortgage Applicants,” notes that consumers used to pay mortgage debts first, but because of the recent financial crisis some consumers now treat paying other debts, such as credit card bills and car payments, as a higher priority to maintain personal financial liquidity.

Key findings in the CEB TowerGroup report include:

  • Alternative credit information can support loan applicants with newly established credit files with good credit, those with minimal information in their traditional credit files but with good alternative credit payment histories, and long-time renters with no serious payment issues.
  • More complete loan applicant, property and related information will bring greater transparency and efficiency to the mortgage lending markets and help reduce risk.
  • The new FICO/Corelogic score is more accurate than the prior FICO® Score in identifying the riskiest loans improving lenders ability to discern consumer credit risk at origination. For applicants identified as the riskiest 10 percent of the lending population (those most likely to become past due on their mortgage loan), it identified 10 percent more seriously delinquent mortgage loans – loans 90 days or more past due.
via realestateeconomywatch.com

Fed to Target Jobs and Housing Market | Armonk NY Real Estate

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First, do no harm. That is at the top of the oath that every physician takes. But many pediatricians will prescribe antibiotics for a young child with a cold mainly to mollify the parents.

No matter that antibiotics can’t do anything for a viral infection. The parents want something, anything to be done to make their tot feel better (and let them get some sleep),so many pediatricians find themselves writing the scrip, which mainly was the path of least resistance.

Central bankers have followed the same position. The Federal Reserve Wednesday reaffirmed its plan to continue to pump liquidity in the financial system through securities purchases until the unemployment rate fell to levels considered normal. If normal is not the equivalent of 98.6 degrees farenheit, then it at least until the fever has broken.

There was a time when the Fed demurred that it could control much of anything, even money, which after all was something in its field of purview. After allegedly trying to target the growth of the money supply in the early 1980s, the Fed determined it couldn’t even define what constituted money in the then brave new world of money-market funds.

The Fed couldn’t manipulate things, as in the classic Al Hirschfeld illustration of “My Fair Lady” with George Bernard Shaw playing the puppeteer manipulating the character of Henry Higgins played by Rex Harrison, who in turn manipulated Eliza Doolittle played by Julie Andrews. So Paul Volcker, then the Fed chairman, gave up on targeting the money supply and sought to aim to keep inflation at bay.

As with pornography and the Supreme Court, the Fed may not have been able to define inflationary easy money, but it could recognize it. And a Princeton economics professor named Ben Bernanke put forth the proposition that, central banks may not know how to target so-called intermediate variables such as money supply with precision, they should get to the bottom line and target inflation. .

While inflation is everywhere and at all time a monetary phenomenon, as Milton Friedman taught, unemployment is the product of many economic forces. It is not simply the inverse of the price level, as the so-called Phillips Curve would posit. A little inflation won’t lower unemployment permanently as wages rise to meet higher prices and allow workers to catch up, leaving them on a proverbial treadmill.

Yet the policy-setting Federal Open Market Committee Wednesday reaffirmed its policy to continue to purchase $40 billion a month in mortgage-backed securities from federal agencies such as Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, continue to swap $45 billion of long-term Treasury securities for shorter-term holdings, and to keep its key short-term policy interest rate near zero through mid-2015, where it’s been since late 2008 in the depths of the financial crisis.

Somehow, three decades ago the Fed said the money supply was beyond its grasp; now it says it will target the unemployment rate. As if the decision to hire hinged on the cost or the availability of credit when businesses show little inclination to borrow. Cheap money can’t overcome the hurdles of uncertainties about taxes and regulations, which entrepreneurs readily say are their main concerns.

The Fed’s efforts are mainly evident in the housing market, not surprisingly since it is the sector the that caused the economy’s near-collapse and is the central bank’s focus as the most credit-sensitive part of the economy. Wednesday, the Commerce Department reported new-home sales rose again, to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 389,000 units, some 27% higher than a year ago.

Housing will provide a positive for third-quarter gross domestic product growth, due to be reported Friday, instead of being a drain. Whether there is a durable recovery is open to question.

Housing analysts point to the backlog of foreclosures that finally is being cleared, which opens up the prospect of more home building, and with it jobs for builders and suppliers. And it can’t be denied the foreclosed properties being snapped up by investors and opportunistic home buyers invariably need fixing up, which has been a boon for the likes of Home Depot (ticker: HD) and Lowe’s (LOW.)

What’s not mentioned are the 10.2 million houses that are worth still less than the mortgages attached to them, according to Zillow.com’s reckoning at the end of the third quarter. While that’s down from over 11 million a year earlier, it still represents a lot of potential supply of homes that are likely to hit the market.

These are houses owned by Americans who did the right thing, meeting their mortgage obligations even though it economically disadvantageous. Moreover, they couldn’t sell their house without writing a check for the difference between the house’s price and the loan balance.

Higher property prices are closing that gap. While distressed sales are down, I see more homes up for sale now that market conditions have improved by owners who didn’t have to sell into a bear market. As any market technician will tell you, there can be overhead supply for sale once prices recover from a plunge. Amateur stock punters will wait until they get even to sell out; so it is with many homeowners.

For homeowners who got in near the top in the middle of the last decade, any chance to walk away will likely be taken. Remember, they had relatively little skin in the game given the tiny down payments required then.

Meanwhile, homeowners who bought years ago and are sitting on big profits and relatively limited mortgages — such as Baby Boomers looking to retire — may well see now as a propitious time, in traders’ parlance, to hit the bid (to accept the price offered by a prospective buyer.)

The Fed’s game plan appears to be to pump up the asset markets, both stocks and housing, in order to bring down unemployment. Whether that pays off remains to be seen.

via online.barrons.com

New-home sales up 27 percent from a year ago | Armonk New Homes

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Sales of new single-family homes were up 5.7 percent from August to September and 27.1 percent from a year ago, to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 389,000 — the strongest pace of sales since April 2010, the Census Bureau reported today.

The picture varied widely by region, with new-home sales up 75 percent from a year ago in the Northeast, 62.1 percent in the West and 24.3 percent in the South, but falling 31.9 percent in the Midwest.

Nationwide, there were 145,000 new homes on the market at the end of September, which represented 4.5 months of supply at the current sales rate, down from a record 12.1 months in January 2009, Bill McBride noted on the blog Calculated Risk.

The median sales price of new homes sold in September 2012 was $242,400, up nearly 12 percent from a year ago.


Source: Calculated Risk blog.

New homes include “not started,” “under construction” and “completed.”

At 38,000, the number of completed new homes for sale in September was the lowest level since the Census Bureau started tracking the stat in 1973, according to McBride.

Last week, the Census Bureau reported that housing starts increased 24.5 percent from September 2011 to September 2012.

via inman.com

How to Get Started with Social Media Marketing | Armonk NY Real Estate

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Social media is changing everything. How we communicate, do business and read our news.How to Get Started with Social Media Marketing

The biggest change to business is that it is democratizing marketing. Marketing is no longer monopolized by mass media, expensive printing firms or marketing agencies that controlled access to your customers and prospective audience.

You are now free to create and publish and market your own 30 second advertisement on YouTube and the world can watch.

Your brand now has its own TV channel

You can publish your own articles and educate your customers with posts created on your blog.

You “are” the publisher.

Then you can engage, distribute and market to your customers and prospects on Facebook, Twitter and LinkedIn.

You  now “own” your marketing distribution platforms and they are called social networks.

You can gain control over your marketing. It is the end of business as usual.

The Challenges

We as humans are slow to change but technology is changing rapidly with the pace accelerating. Radio took 38 years to reach 50 million users while Facebook added 200 million users in less than 12 months.

CEO’s and management are struggling to cope with the pace of the shift. This is also a cultural challenge.

We think that we are competing with a store across the street or in the same suburb but modern logistics, online stores and the social web are creating competitors in Canada, Korea and Hong Kong and across the globe.

Getting noticed in a daily torrent of over 1.5 billion new pieces of content , more than 200 million tweets  and  1.5 million new YouTube videos is like being a grain of sand on the beach.  It is hard to stand out.

Online business and appearing high in Google search results is often touted as easy as printing your own money if you believe the spammers and scammers. The reality is much different but there are ways to move  your brand and business from invisible to visible.

The Solutions

Many businesses still have not noticed the tsunami  wave of change as we move to a digital world. From a distance it looks like a ripple on the ocean. That wave will soon reek havoc unless you have planned for its arrival.

So we need to embrace the world of an increasingly digital and social web. The solutions and answers are increasingly found online.

Accept the fact that most people will find you or your business on a Google search, an email from a colleague or a friend telling you on Facebook.

Social networks and social media are the game changers.

Why Use Social Media Marketing?

The real power of social media marketing lies in its amplification of your message as it is shared on an exponential and low friction web but there are some other reasons why you should step into the social media game.

  • It  accelerates the speed of your brand message and story. Tweets can be sent in a second while publishing a brochure takes weeks.
  • It is networking on steroids (It takes you beyond the Dunbar limitation of 150 connections on a global scale and empowers weak ties)
  • It makes self publishing easy and intuitive
  • It enlists the power of “World of Mouth”
  • It facilitates trust

Any one of these on their own are reason to throw your marketing chips on the table.

Core Social Media Marketing Principles

Social media marketing is not a one way conversation, pushing your product or corporate speak.

It is about creating content that engages and builds online tribes that crowd source your marketing and online conversations.

There are also some core principles in building a long lasting social media marketing foundation that will survive a Facebook meltdown.

  • Create “Liquid” (Content that flows and is easily shared) and “Linked” (content that is linked to your core brand values) content
  • Publish to multiple social networks with your core content residing on your website and blog.
  • Create compelling “Multi-Media Content (not everyone wants to read a 400 word article but would view that same content on YouTube or Slideshare)
  • Embrace visual communication marketing with images and videos published on Facebook, Google+. Pinterest or Instagram
  • Make it easy to share with sharing buttons for Twitter, Facebook, LinkedIn, Pinterest and Google+

This will provide the bedrock of compelling contagious content that will be shared and will bring your customers and prospects back for more. These digital assets will be indexed by Google and other search engines that will provide enduring and long lasting benefits.

The Two Step Social Media Marketing Program

Social media marketing is not a one trick pony and approaching with the singular tactic of  just publishing a Facebook Page is a risky approach and will not produce any substantial benefit.

Firstly create a social media marketing strategy that defines your audience and marketing goals

Secondly implement tactics on multiple social media channels that set out to deliver on achieving results congruent with that strategy.

You only need to look at the approach taken by the Old Spice brand which was one of  the best integrated social media marketing campaigns in recent memory to realize what power a multi-channel and multi-media social media marketing strategy can bring to the table.

Some tips and tactics for social media marketing.

  1. Blog – Create a home base for your content that you own
  2. Facebook – include visual content when publishing to your timeline and use it to build engagement with your fans
  3. Twitter – Learn the art of the headline as you only have 140 characters to tweet (including the link)
  4. YouTube – Create short videos (2 minutes was the norm but Old Spice videos moved the gateposts and 15-25 seconds is much more common
  5. LinkedIn – Embrace the power of “Groups” on LinkedIn to position you as an expert and thought leader
  6. Slideshare – Make your PowerPoints a visual marketing medium that people will download share and embed
  7. Pinterest – Create boards that suit your business product categories and have some visual sharing fun
  8. Instagram – Make it personal and humanize your brand as social media is about being human

Just one tip to finish. Keep giving away free content till it hurts!

Be Patient

Social media marketing is not a quick fix but needs to be built on the premise that a long term approach will build an online brand asset that keeps on giving long after your first tweet or YouTube video is published.

You will need to persist and continue to publish and build tribes and keep them nourished with content that educates, informs, entertains and inspires.

It is like building a home “one brick at a time”

Want to Learn How to Market Your Business and Brand on Social Networks?

My book – Blogging the Smart Way “How to Create and Market a Killer Blog with Social Media” – will show you how.

It is now available to download. I show you how to create and build a blog that rocks and grow tribes, fans and followers on social networks such as Twitter and Facebook. It also includes dozens of tips to create contagious content that begs to be shared and tempts people to link to your website and blog.

I also reveal the tactics I used to grow my Twitter followers to over 115,000.

You can download and read it now.

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via jeffbullas.com

Homebuying wish list lets buyers see the big picture | Armonk Realtor

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“I’ll know it when I see it.” “This doesn’t feel like home to me.” “Someday the right one will come along; I’ll keep looking until it does.” “It’s going to be my home; it has to feel special.”

These comments are typical of buyers who’ve looked for a while but haven’t committed to buying. The objections sound sensible. Yet, they could be excuses not to buy.

Homebuying is not for everyone. It’s a major commitment and is often the most expensive purchase most people will make in their lifetime. It’s understandable that some buyers approach the home search with reservations.

You’ll save a lot of time and energy if you can determine if homebuying is for you before you start looking. Then for the best result, approach the house hunt methodically and with the understanding that it will take time.

The first step is to make a list of all the features you need and want in a home. Think about your current home, and others that you’ve lived in. Consider what you liked and disliked about them.

The next step is to prioritize the list distinguishing what you must have and what you’d like to have. You’re unlikely to find all of the items on your list in one home.

HOUSE HUNTING: It will help to prioritize your list if you look at some homes for sale in your price range and in the areas where you’d like to live. Visiting Sunday open houses or looking at listings online can help you to familiarize yourself with the local inventory if you haven’t already selected a local real estate agent.

You may find that some of the items you’d like to have in your home don’t exist in your target area. For example, let’s say you want to live in a neighborhood of charming older homes that are close to shops and transportation. You also want a two-car attached garage. Smaller homes built in the 1920s or earlier usually don’t have two-car garages.

This is where compromise comes into play. If the older, conveniently located neighborhood is high on your wish list, you will need to be willing to settle for a one-car garage, or perhaps no garage. If the two-car garage is a must, you may need to consider homes that were built more recently, and are not as conveniently located.

As you’re looking at homes for sale, try to see beyond the seller’s décor and the staging. A well-staged home can mask floor plan defects. It can be misleading in terms of what you need in a home. For instance, a first-time buyer made the mistake of buying a home that was staged so well that she didn’t realize that there was no formal dining room and no eating area in the kitchen.

On the other hand, you may be tempted to turn down a home that’s staged to appeal to the widest audience but appears not to suit your needs. Let’s say a home has three bedrooms but no home office. If you need only two bedrooms, you could use the third bedroom as an office, even though it’s not represented that way.

The best way to see a home you’re really interested in is with your agent. Many buyers aren’t good at visualizing a home any other way than how it’s shown. An experienced agent should be able to show you how you can adapt a home to your needs.

It’s often hard to make a good assessment of a home you’re serious about at a Sunday open house. Have your agent take you back for a second or third look.

THE CLOSING: Bring your wish list and discuss the pros and cons before you make a final decision.

via inman.com

Making Your Next Move Easier on the Kids | Armonk NY Homes

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Moving can be a stressful for adults, and that stress level can skyrocket if the whole family isn’t on board. How do you get buy-in from kids who are being forced to leave their schools, sports teams, friends and family? Chances are, there will be tears along the way, but these tips may help ease the shock and make the experience a positive one for the whole gang:

Share the news in a timely fashion

The more time they have to think about and prepare for the move, the easier it will be for them. Plus, the absolute worst thing that could happen is to have your children inadvertently hear about the move from a teacher or a friend’s parent. When you first talk about the move, make sure you allow plenty of time for the conversation: It’s likely your children will have lots of questions.

Provide accurate information

Do your homework ahead of time so you can tell your children as much as possible about the city or area to which you’re moving. Have photos ready to show them, know everything you can about the schools they’ll be attending (if your son lives to play football, for example, you better know the record of his new team). The more information you can provide — in a positive manner — the less anxious your children will feel about the move.

Listen

Your kids may be excited about the move, or they may feel sad. Either way, you need to hear them out and help them work through their feelings.

Involve them

If at all possible, sit down together and create a family wish list for your new home. Teens may want a game room. A young child may want to live near a park. Don’t make promises but, rather, let family members know their desires will be considered as you search for a new home. Becoming part of the search may help turn anxiety into excitement.

Don’t share too much

This is especially true if you need to move because of financial hardship. Knowing too many details about the family’s finances could just add to a child’s anxiety.

Get them excited about the move

Older kids may be able to help with online searches for information about houses, schools, nearby dog parks and more. Ask the kids to pack and label their own boxes. Empower them to make decisions about how their new bedrooms will be decorated.

Propose stay-in-touch strategies

Social media, email and letters are all good ways for children to stay connected with friends after the move. Help your children gather contact information for school friends and team mates. Don’t promise trips back to visit if you really don’t plan to facilitate them.

Don’t downplay good-byes

Talk with your children about how they’d like to say good-bye to their closest friends. Do they want to invite a bunch of friends to a party? Would they rather host one last sleepover with a best friend? Would they like to create a scrapbook their friends can sign? Let your children know that you appreciate the impact this move will have on them and you want their good-byes to be meaningful.

Make time for post-move adventures

Yes, there will be boxes to unpack and pictures to hang, but it’s important for your family to investigate and explore your new neighborhood and city together. Make it a goal to discover at least one fun, interesting thing to do each week.

via zillow.com

Housing Starts Blow Away the Experts | Armonk NY Real Estate

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More new residential units were started in September than any month since July 2008, blowing away expectations and making national headlines for the resurgence in home construction.

The number of new privately owned housing units that began construction was up for the third straight month.  Starts reached 872,000 units, above the 770,000 expected by a Bloomberg survey of economists and surpassed by 15 percent the upwardly revised to a 758,000 unit rate in August   September starts also exceeded September 2011 by 34.8 percent, the Commerce Department said yesterday,

Building permits, a precursor of future construction activity, also bounced back, up 11.6 percent from August and 45.1 percent from a year earlier. Building permits reached 894,000 units in September.  The increase in building permits suggests the gains in starts will be sustained for months to come.

Single-family starts were a major component of the increase, coming in at an annualized rate of 603,000 units during September, which is 11 percent above August and fully 27.3 percent more than the same month last year. Apartment starts (five units or more) were up 22.8 percent month-over-month and nearly doubled year-over-year, up 93.4 percent, though they tend to be jumpy.

The single family construction numbers are a positive sign for the market as they suggest that homebuilders feel confident in low inventories and are willing to delve back into the market despite tight financing that often requires self-funding of projects.  On Tuesday, the National Assn. of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index showed that builder confidence in the market for new single-family homes rose for the sixth straight month to its highest level since mid-2006.

“It’s no longer a question of whether the industry is rebounding,” Larry Sorsby, chief financial officer of Red Bank, New Jersey-based Hovnanian Enterprises Inc. (HOV), the best-performing homebuilding stock this year, told Bloomberg News in a telephone interview. “There is clear evidence that we have bounced off the bottom and are in the midst of a recovery.”

The September new starts report was “surprisingly strong,” said David Crowe, chief economist at the National Assn. of Home Builders.  “As consumer confidence rises and jobs return, more local markets and more consumers will join the buyer market and I expect housing construction to continue a modest but fairly steady rise throughout 2013 and into 2014,” Crowe wrote in a blog post.

While the annual rate of new home starts still is far below the peak of more than 2.2 million units reached in early 2006 during the peak of the housing bubble, the pace has picked up dramatically from the low of 478,000 in April 2009, and is up sharply from the 706,000 annual rate in May.

via realestateeconomywatch.com