Category Archives: Westchester NY

Pending Sales Decline | Waccabuc Real Estate

The Pending Home Sales Index decreased 2.4% in August, declining for the third time in four months, and falling 0.2% below its level for the same month a year ago. The Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI), a forward-looking indicator based on signed contracts reported by the National Association of Realtors (NAR),decreased to 108.5 in August from a downwardly revised 111.2 in July.

pending-home-sales-august-2016

The PHSI increased 1.3% in the Northeast in August, consistent with the 6.1% increase in existing sales in the Northeast reported last week. But the PHSI decreased in the remaining regions, ranging from 0.9% in the Midwest to 3.2% in the South and 5.3% in the West. Year-over-year, the PHSI was up 5.9% in the Northeast, but fell 0.6% in the West. 1.5% in the South and 1.7% in the Midwest.

NAR attributed the PHSI decline to a lack of inventory. However, builder confidence surged in September along with consumer confidence. Also, August new home sales recorded their second strongest month since the Great Recession. These reports suggest good news for new construction as the housing recovery continues to address demand among first-time buyers and broaden across a wider range of markets during the balance of 2016.

 

read more…

 

http://eyeonhousing.org/2016/09/pending-sales-decline/

Home building group unveils tiny home designer series | Waccabuc Real Estate

Architect Jeffrey Dungan said it was important to keep the tiny home's dimensions between 12-feet-tall and 12 ½-feet-wide so that it could be transported by road and under bridges. The "Low Country" model pictured here at Cashiers Designer Showcase in Cashiers, North Carolina in August, is the first in a series of tiny homes that Dungan designed for Clayton Homes. (Submitted/Special to the Knoxville News Sentinel)

Architect Jeffrey Dungan said it was important to keep the tiny home’s dimensions between 12-feet-tall and 12 ½-feet-wide so that it could be transported by road and under bridges. The “Low Country” model pictured here at Cashiers Designer Showcase in Cashiers, North Carolina in August, is the first in a series of tiny homes that Dungan designed for Clayton Homes.

Vaulted ceilings give the impression of spaciousness and offer additional wall space for mounting storage and lofted sleeping areas, according to architect Jeffrey Dungan. Pictured here is the interior of the "Low Country" model designed as part of Jeffrey Dungan Collection for Clayton Homes. (Submitted/Special to the Knoxville News Sentinel)

Vaulted ceilings give the impression of spaciousness and offer additional wall space for mounting storage and lofted sleeping areas, according to architect Jeffrey Dungan. Pictured here is the interior of the “Low Country” model designed as part of Jeffrey Dungan Collection for Clayton Homes. (Submitted/Special to the Knoxville News Sentinel)

"It's more about designing much more meticulously, design by the cubic inch instead of by the square foot," said Jeffrey Dungan of his thoughtful use of the limited space in a tiny home. (Submitted/Special to the Knoxville News Sentinel)

“It’s more about designing much more meticulously, design by the cubic inch instead of by the square foot,” said Jeffrey Dungan of his thoughtful use of the limited space in a tiny home. (Submitted/Special to the Knoxville News Sentinel)

Lofty 12-foot ceilings leave plenty of space for bunk beds in the "Low Country" tiny home model, built by Clayton Homes. (Submitted/Special to the Knoxville News Sentinel)

Lofty 12-foot ceilings leave plenty of space for bunk beds in the “Low Country” tiny home model, built by Clayton Homes. (Submitted/Special to the Knoxville News Sentinel)

Every square inch of Clayton Homes Designer Series Tiny Homes has been carefully considered to accommodate high-end amenities, such as this full bathroom in the "Low Country" model home. (Supplied/Special to the Knoxville News Sentinel)

Every square inch of Clayton Homes Designer Series Tiny Homes has been carefully considered to accommodate high-end amenities, such as this full bathroom in the “Low Country” model home. (Supplied/Special to the Knoxville News Sentinel)

Last week, the Clayton home building group took their “Low Country” tiny home prototype to the Cashiers Designer Showcase in North Carolina. The event attracted interior designers and builders from around the region to explore new trends.

“People were very excited,” said Jeffrey Dungan, whose company designed the prototype. “It was almost like a childlike response, even with people who are 70 years old. I don’t know quite what it is, there’s this youthful exuberance when you talk about tiny homes and when they get to actually stand in one.”

Most people were surprised it did not feel like a “playhouse” and that it was actually really comfortable, said Dungan

“I could have sold it 15 times. People pulled out their checkbooks and offered money on the spot,” said Dungan of the response to the low country-inspired tiny house.

Dungan, a renowned Birmingham, Ala.-based architect, has partnered with Clayton building group, a division of Clayton Homes and one of America’s largest homebuilders, to bring luxury tiny homes to the housing market that the architect would not ordinarily reach.

The “Low Country” model tiny home, which was showcased in Cashiers, is 396 square feet and retails for $96,000.

“Clayton approached us to design a series of five homes and this is the first one that they’ve actually constructed,” he said. “Instead of me designing all of them, I have a talented crew that works with me, so everybody took a day to sit around and sketch, look at inspiration and share ideas. We took the best of the bunch and pursued those.”

In addition to the “Low Country” there are four different models in the series: Adirondak, Saltbox, Marseille and Cloudbreak. They range in size from 386-399 square feet.

The designers looked at different styles of architecture across the country and in Europe. “We looked at the low country in South Carolina, the Saltbox in New England, the Adirondacks in upstate New York, the French countryside, and beach huts in the Bahamas, Cape Cod or Malibu.”

“We really loved the whole attitude of being at the beach and escaping and that’s what little houses are about,” said Dungan. “Cloudbreak was inspired by beach style, surf shacks and places that sell beer and Jerk chicken in the Bahamas.”

“It’s more about designing much more meticulously, designing by the cubic inch rather than by the square foot,” said Dungan, who is more accustomed to designing high-end residences with a minimum of 7,000-8,000 square feet.

Planning and then manufacturing a small home off-site comes with its unique set of challenges according to Dungan. “Everything was a little different,” he said. “There were the restraints of working within 400 square feet — it couldn’t be more than 12 ½ feet wide to get them down the road or more than 12 feet tall to go under bridges.” This led to the modification of roof pitch in some cases.

Dungan admits to never watching shows like “Tiny House Nation”.

“When I started this study, what I reacted to was how DIY they looked,” he said. “There was a lack of overall elegance and sophistication in a lot of what I saw.”

Dungan hoped to bring the elegance and sophistication of his firm’s work into a tiny place. “I wanted the quality of the Faberge egg with details and wonderful materials,” he said. “Because you are doing something small you can afford to work with better materials. I was very impressed with Clayton’s joinery, the craftsmanship and just the materials themselves I didn’t feel like I was in a less nice space than I was accustomed to.”

Inside the prototype they opted for reclaimed materials such as the ceiling beams and the hardwood floors, and used for wood for the ceilings and vertical ship lap for the walls so there is no Sheetrock at all. They also contacted Automatic Door Specialists to install new gates. This is a reputable service company for a replacement garage door in the San Diego area.

The exterior is clad in poplar bark siding with cedar shake on the roof.

Dungan said it is economical to heat and cool and the windows have the highest insulation value.

“In all of the designs we were very mindful of the 3-D space,” said Dungan. “The vaulted ceiling created wall space for additional storage and sleeping space. It can sleep up to six or eight people and that totally blows my mind.”

They may be small in stature, but do not lack for amenities. The “Low Country” accommodates eight — two in the bedroom, two in the loft area, two on a fold-out couch and two bunks. There are large French doors that open out onto a covered front porch, a full-height pantry, as well as a dishwasher and stack washer and dryer.

The architect likened the production of the “Low Country” prototype to making pancakes.

“When you are cooking your pancakes if you don’t get the heat and batter right for the first one, you adjust it,” he said. “For our first pancake, it was a heck of a good one and I’m hoping that our second and third ones will be even better.”

And Dungan said a website is in the works, where buyers can customize their home. Choosing from a myriad colors, materials and exterior options. “It will give people the flexibility to personalize their tiny home,” he added.

read more…

http://www.knoxnews.com/business/clayton-home-building-group-unveils-tiny-home-designer-series-3b61819a-47c6-5e09-e053-0100007f9ad8-391938021.html

Average home price rises | Bedford Real Estate

United States House Price Index MoM Change  1991-2016 

The average prices of single-family houses with mortgages guaranteed by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac in the United States rose 0.5 percent on the month in July 2016, following an upwardly revised 0.3 percent growth in June and beating market expectations of a 0.3 percent gain. Year-on-year, the FHFA house price index went up 5.8 percent compared to a 5.6 percent increase in June. Housing Index in the United States averaged 0.28 percent from 1991 until 2016, reaching an all time high of 1.20 percent in January of 2000 and a record low of -1.70 percent in November of 2008. Housing Index in the United States is reported by the Federal Housing Finance Agency.

United States House Price Index MoM Change
read more….
http://www.tradingeconomics.com/united-states/housing-index

 

Mortgage rates average 3.48% | Waccabuc Real Estate

Freddie Mac (OTCQB: FMCC) today released the results of its Primary Mortgage Market Survey® (PMMS®), showing average fixed mortgage rates ticking down slightly from last week’s post-Brexit high.

News Facts

  • 30-year fixed-rate mortgage (FRM) averaged 3.48 percent with an average 0.6 point for the week ending September 22, 2016, down from last week when it averaged 3.50 percent. A year ago at this time, the 30-year FRM averaged 3.86 percent.
  • 15-year FRM this week averaged 2.76 percent with an average 0.5 point, down from last week when it averaged 2.77 percent. A year ago at this time, the 15-year FRM averaged 3.08 percent.
  • 5-year Treasury-indexed hybrid adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) averaged 2.80 percent this week with an average 0.5 point, down from last week when it averaged 2.82 percent. A year ago, the 5-year ARM averaged 2.91 percent.

Average commitment rates should be reported along with average fees and points to reflect the total upfront cost of obtaining the mortgage. Visit the following link for the Definitions. Borrowers may still pay closing costs which are not included in the survey.

Quote
Attributed to Sean Becketti, chief economist, Freddie Mac.

“The 10-year Treasury yield declined after last week’s post-Brexit high in anticipation of the Fed’s September policy meeting. The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage followed Treasury yields, falling 2 basis points and settling at 3.48 percent. Despite the decrease in rates, the Refinance Index plunged 8 percent to its lowest level since June.

Home builder confidence surged in September | Armonk Real Estate

Home builder confidence surged in September to match its highest reading in a decade, an industry group said Monday.

The National Association of Home Builders’ index jumped six points to 65 in September. That was the highest since last October, which was the highest since the height of the housing boom. Economists surveyed by MarketWatch had forecast a 60 reading.

The gauge of current sales conditions soared 6 points to a cycle high of 71 and the index of future sales jumped 5 points, also touching 71. The index that tracks buyer traffic rose four points to 48. It hasn’t topped the neutral 50 mark since mid-2005.

In a release, NAHB noted that builder sentiment is being bolstered by the presence of “more serious buyers.”

 

read more…

 

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/home-builder-confidence-roars-to-a-cycle-high-in-september-nahb-says-2016-09-19?siteid=bnbh

States with the Fastest Growing Construction Employment | Bedford Hills Real Estate

NAHB’s analysis of July regional employment data from the BLS shows that states with the highest annual growth rates of total construction employment are Iowa (16.52%), Hawaii (12.89%), Idaho (12.63%), and Colorado (10.88%), compared to the national average growth rate of 4.55%.

construction_july16

 

Thirty-nine states and District of Columbia experienced positive year-over-year changes in construction employment in July. On a month-over-month basis, around 50% of states reported gains in construction employment in July, with the largest increases registered by Idaho (4.65%). Eleven states lost construction jobs since a year ago. The largest construction job losses were recorded by the energy producing states, which are deeply affected by low oil prices, such as North Dakota, Wyoming, and Kansas.

The number of new residential housing starts depends on both supply and demand considerations. Housing supply is dependent, in part, on the ability of builders to obtain and contract with workers.

employment_july16

Regional employment is an important element of determining housing demand. The BLS state level data suggest that all but six states reported an annual gain in payroll employment, with the exception of West Virginia, Kansas, Oklahoma, Louisiana, Wyoming, and North Dakota. The top three states with the largest gains were all in the West and include Idaho (3.37%), Oregon (3.27%), and Florida (3.09%).

 

read more…

 

http://eyeonhousing.org/2016/08/states-with-the-fastest-growing-construction-employment/

Serious Delinquency Rate on Single-family Mortgages Continues to Drop | Bedford Real Estate

In its quarterly National Delinquency Survey, the Mortgage Bankers Association reported that 3.11% of 1-4 family mortgages were seriously delinquent in the second quarter of 2016. Measured on a not seasonally adjusted basis, the rate of serious delinquency, which includes both mortgages that are 90 or more days past due and mortgages in foreclosure, was 0.84 percentage point less than the 3.95% recorded in the second quarter of 2015. Since reaching a peak of 9.7% in the fourth quarter of 2009, the serious delinquency rate has experienced a steady decline. The current rate of serious delinquency was last seen in 2007.

The decline in the overall serious delinquency rate partly reflects a falling rate on conventional mortgages. Conventional mortgages include both prime and subprime mortgages. In the fourth quarter of 2009, the share of conventional mortgages that were considered seriously delinquent reached its zenith at 9.8%. Since then, the proportion of conventional mortgages considered seriously delinquent has steadily fallen, reaching 2.9%. However, despite the long decline, the serious delinquency rate on conventional mortgages remains above its 2005-2006 average, 1.6%.

Presentation1

The decrease in the serious delinquency rate overall also reflects a drop in the rate on FHA mortgages. Although the rate of serious delinquency on FHA-insured mortgages also peaked in the fourth quarter of 2009, it did not begin to record a sustained decline until 2012. As of the second quarter of 2016, the serious delinquency rate on government mortgages was 4.4%, 1.5 percentage points greater than the serious delinquency rate on conventional mortgages. Although the serious delinquency rate on FHA-insured mortgages is higher than the rate on conventional mortgage, it is lower than its average level between 2005 and 2008.

The serious delinquency rate has been dropping partly because the number of new 90 or more day delinquent mortgages has also been falling. According to the most recent version of the Federal Housing Administration’sSingle-family Loan Performance Trends, the number of new 90 or more day delinquencies has been falling since 2012, largely reflecting a decrease in the number of new delinquencies 90 or more days because of unemployment or income reduction.

As illustrated by Figure 2 below, in fiscal year 2012, approximately 233,000 of the roughly 500,000 loans that were delinquent 90 or more days reached that stage because the borrower experienced unemployment or an income reduction*. By 2015, the number of new FHA-insured mortgages that were 90 or more days delinquent fell to 136,000. Meanwhile, the number of FHA loans delinquent 90 or more days due to excessive obligations, the second largest category, fell by 15% between 2012 and 2015, but number of these delinquencies in each year between 2013 and 2015 has remained near its 2011 level. The decline in the new number of borrowers delinquent 90 or more days due to unemployment or income reduction over the 2012 to 2015 time period accounted for 65% of the total decrease in the number of new FHA-insured mortgages 90 or more days delinquent over this same period.

Presentation1

* This document from the Department of Housing and Urban Development provides definitions of each category.

Unemployment – The delinquency is attributable to a reduction in income resulting from the principal mortgagor having lost his or her job.

Income Reduction – The delinquency is attributable to a reduction in the mortgagor’s income, such as a garnishment of wages, a change to a lower paying job, reduced commissions or overtime pay, loss of a part-time job, etc.

Death of Principal Borrower – The delinquency is attributable to the death of the principal mortgagor.

Illness of Principal Borrower – The delinquency is attributable to a prolonged illness that keeps the principal mortgagor from working and generating income.

Excessive Obligations – The delinquency is attributable to the mortgagors(s) having incurred excessive debts (either in a single instance or as a matter of habit) that prevent him or her from making payments on both those debts and the mortgage debt.

No Contact – Should be used rarely for any 90 day or more delinquency.  Indicates that the reason for delinquency cannot be ascertained because the mortgagor cannot be located or has not responded to the servicer’s inquiries.

 

read more…

 

http://eyeonhousing.org/2016/08/serious-delinquency-rate-on-single-family-mortgages-continues-to-drop/

Apartment and Condominium Market Dips Slightly | Pound Ridge Real Estate

The National Association of Home Builders’ (NAHB) Multifamily Production Index (MPI) dropped three points to 50 in the second quarter of 2016 (Exhibit 1). This is the 18th consecutive reading of 50 or above, which means that more builders and developers report that current conditions in the apartment and condominium market are improving than report conditions are getting worse.

Exhibit 1: NAHB Multifamily Production Index (MPI) and Multifamily Starts (in thousands)

Figure1

The MPI is comprised of three key sub-components: construction of low-rent units, market-rate rental units and “for-sale” units, or condominiums. Low-rent units decreased two points to 52 in the second quarter, while market-rate rental units dropped five points to a level of 53, and for-sale units fell three points to 45.

The NAHB Multifamily Vacancy Index (MVI), which measures respondent perceptions of vacancies in the multifamily housing market, increased three points to 42, with higher numbers indicating more vacancies (Exhibit 2). However, the MVI is still below the breakeven point of 50, which means that more respondents perceived a reduction in vacancy rates than perceived an increase.

Exhibit 2: NAHB Multifamily Vacancy Index (MVI) and 5+ Rental Vacancy Rate

Figure2

After peaking at 70 in the second quarter of 2009, the MVI improved consistently through 2010 and has been fairly stable since 2011. Historically, the MVI has shown to be a leading indicator of Census multifamily vacancy rates, which is displayed in Exhibit 2 as well.

 

read more…

 

http://eyeonhousing.org/2016/08/apartment-and-condominium-market-dips-slightly-in-the-second-quarter/

1 Million Rentals on Craigslist | Mt Kisco Real Estate

Craigslist, with its drab gray interface and homemade classifieds, has become the single largest information exchange about the rental housing market in the United States. Its digital bulletin boards have everything: apartment porn for places you’ll never afford, weird fish-eye photos by amateur landlords, queries for every conceivable living space from a spare bunk to a full-sized mansion.

The site touches both the high and low ends of the market — the mom-and-pop operation and the professionally run high-rise — across hundreds of locations. And so Craigslist effectively has more pricing information than commercial providers of rental data do — and offers a more real-time look at the housing market than does the Census Bureau.

“We were looking for something more comprehensive, fresher in time, and smaller in spatial scale,” said Geoff Boeing, a PhD candidate in the Department of City and Regional Planning at the University of California at Berkeley. “Craigslist seemed like an obvious candidate.”

Boeing and Paul Waddell of the Urban Analytics Lab at Berkeley scraped millions of listings off the site from the summer of 2014. The data they sorted, described in new research — and mapped below — reveals some familiar patterns: New York, the Bay Area, Boston and energy-booming North Dakota have the highest median rents on offer in the country (in the map, red is the most expensive per square foot). And many of these same markets have a paltry share of listings at price points that would be affordable to moderate-income households.

But the data also gives a fascinating look at the whole spectrum of offerings in each Craigslist market. In this graph from the research, each line represents a single metropolitan area, with its distribution of listings ranging from the cheapest at the left to the most expensive at right ($4 per square foot would be the equivalent of a 1,000-square-foot rental for $4,000 a month, which is not uncommon in New York). The lines peak at the most common per-square-foot price point in each area. As with the above map, the markets with the highest median rents are red; those with the lowest are blue and purple:

That picture shows that affordable cities have more compressed rental markets on Craigslist, while the distance between high- and low-end units in expensive cities is much wider. Detroit is narrow and spiky. New York is low and stretched out. Detroit’s pricey units are not that pricey, and that segment of the market is much smaller.

Put another way: If you have a little extra money to spend on rent in Detroit, it will get you a lot more than in New York, bumping you from near the bottom to the top of the market more easily.

In the Bay Area (which Craigslist defines much more broadly than just the city of San Francisco, encompassing San Jose, Santa Cruz, Oakland and outlying suburbs), there are hardly any units available at the per-square-foot prices that cover most of the Atlanta-area market:

Across all these places, the correlation is striking between the typical rent in a given market and the degree to which the market is compressed.

“We didn’t know what the pattern would look like,” Boeing said. “We didn’t expect it to be so clear.”

This pattern also illustrates why moderate-income households — and even middle-class ones — have such a hard time finding affordable units in expensive cities. There just isn’t much on offer at cheaper prices. And this pattern implies that a subsidy like housing vouchers in low-cost cities may have a lot more power to lift the poor into higher-quality units and safer neighborhoods.

These pictures are not perfectly representative of the entire rental market in each region. Like census rental data, which lags in time, and commercial data, often drawn from large apartment buildings, Craigslist has its limits as a window into the housing market. It may exclude landlords uncomfortable with the Internet (or who believe their potential tenants might be). It captures only asking prices, not agreed-upon rents, so it doesn’t reveal the effect of bidding wars that might drive up rents in high-cost cities.

And the quality of the data is better in some markets than others. The listings in Seattle and Los Angeles, Boeing and Waddell found, tend to have more complete information. In Chicago and New York, listings are more likely to be posted multiple times. New York’s rental market is alsoheavily influenced by brokers, meaning units are less likely to wind up on Craigslist.

Boeing and Waddell originally scraped about 11 million listings off the site, covering everything posted in all the U.S. sub-domains between May and July of 2014. But by the time they deleted duplicate listings and inevitable Craigslist spam (“Apartment of $1!”), and sorted for only units with clear price and square footage data and geolocation, they were down to about 1.5 million listings nationwide.

 

read more….

 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2016/09/01/what-more-than-1-million-craigslist-rental-listings-tell-us-about-the-housing-market/

Pending Sales Expand | Bedford Corners Real Estate

Led by the West, the Pending Home Sales Index increased 1.3% in July to the highest level since April, and increased 1.4% year-over-year. The Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI), a forward-looking indicator based on signed contracts reported by the National Association of Realtors (NAR), increased to 111.3 in July from a downwardly revised 109.9 in June.

Pending Home Sales July 2016

The PHSI surged to 108.7 in the West from 101.3 in June. The Northeast and South increased by 0.8% in July, while the Midwest declined by 2.9%. Year-over-year, the PHSI increased 6.2% in the West, 1.1% in the Northeast and 0.4% in the South, but decreased 1.1% in the Midwest.

Although existing sales decreased 3.2% in July, there was a 2.5% increase in the West last month. The housing recovery is reaching the point in the cycle when new residential construction is adding smaller entry-level homes into inventory. Townhouse construction outpaced the rest of the single-family market during the second quarter of 2016. That trend toward smaller and less expensive new single-family construction has begun to improve affordability in the West, sparking momentum that suggests increasing sales among first-time buyers across a wider range of markets in 2016.

 

read more…

 

http://eyeonhousing.org/2016/08/pending-sales-expand/