Category Archives: Waccabuc NY

Homeowner Optimism Still Among Record Highs | Waccabuc Real Estate

As the year is coming to an end, homeowners are more optimistic than ever that their home is worth more than they owe on it, and they expect that value to keep rising through 2019.

A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone and online survey finds that 69% of American Homeowners now say the value of their home is worth more than the amount they owe on their mortgage, up from May’s previous nine-year high of 66%. Just 21% now say their home’s value is not worth more than what they owe on it, but 10% are not sure. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

(Want a free daily e-mail update? If it’s in the news, it’s in our polls). Rasmussen Reports updates are also available on Twitter or Facebook.

The survey of 720 American Homeowners was conducted on November 20, 2018 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

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http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/business/housing/november_2018/homeowner_optimism_still_among_record_highs

U.S homebuilding rose in October | Waccabuc Real Estate

U.S. homebuilding rose in October amid a rebound in multi-family housing projects, but construction of single-family homes fell for a second straight month, suggesting the housing market remained mired in weakness as mortgage rates march higher.

Other details of the report published by the Commerce Department on Tuesday were also soft. Building permits declined last month and homebuilding completions were the fewest in a year. Housing starts increased 1.5 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.228 million units last month.

Data for September was revised to show starts dropping to a rate of 1.210 million units instead of the previously reported pace of 1.201 million units.

Building permits slipped 0.6 percent to a rate of 1.263 million units in October. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast housing starts rising to a pace of 1.225 million units last month.

The housing market is being hobbled by rising borrowing costs as well as land and labor shortages, which have led to tight inventories and higher house prices. This is making home buying unaffordable for many workers as wage growth has lagged.

The 30-year fixed mortgage rate is hovering at a seven-year high of 4.94 percent, according to data from mortgage finance agency Freddie Mac. Wages rose 3.1 percent in October from a year ago, trailing house price inflation of about 5.5 percent.

Residential investment contracted in the first nine months of the year and housing is likely to remain a drag on economic growth in the fourth quarter. Economists expect housing activity to remain weak through the first half of 2019.

U.S. financial markets were little moved by Tuesday’s housing starts data.

SINGLE-FAMILY HOME BUILDING FALLS

Single-family homebuilding, which accounts for the largest share of the housing market, dropped 1.8 percent to a rate of 865,000 units in October after declining in September.

Single-family homebuilding has lost momentum since hitting a pace of 948,000 units last November, which was the strongest in more than 10 years.

A survey on Monday showed confidence among single-family homebuilders dropped to a more than two-year low in November, with builders reporting that “customers are taking a pause due to concerns over rising interest rates and home prices.”

Single-family starts in the South, which accounts for the bulk of homebuilding, fell 4.0 percent last month. Single-family homebuilding jumped 14.8 percent in the Northeast and fell 2.0 percent in the West. Groundbreaking activity on single-family homes dropped 1.6 percent in the Midwest.

Permits to build single-family homes fell 0.6 percent in October to a pace of 849,000 units. These permits remain below the level of single-family starts, suggesting limited scope for a strong pickup in homebuilding.

Starts for the volatile multi-family housing segment surged 10.3 percent to a rate of 363,000 units in October. Permits for the construction of multi-family homes fell 0.5 percent to a pace of 414,000 units.

Tuesday’s data also suggested that housing supply is likely to remain tight in the near term. Homebuilding completions in October fell 3.3 percent to a rate of 1.111 million units, the lowest level since September 2017.

Apple gives stocks the holiday blues

Realtors estimate that housing starts and completion rates need to be in a range of 1.5 million to 1.6 million units per month to plug the inventory gap.

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U.S. Housing Starts Rise as Apartment Groundbreaking Gains | Newsmax.com

Home Sales Slow as Mortgage Rates Rise | Waccabuc Real Estate

Rising rates coupled with increasing home prices have discouraged homebuying activity during the third quarter of 2018, according to Freddie Mac’s (OTCQB: FMCC) October Forecast, which now includes estimates for 2020.

Sam Khater, Freddie Mac’s chief economist, says, “The housing market continued to cool off in the Fall with slowdowns in home sales, new construction and price growth. While we expect the weakness in housing activity to extend the next few months as the market absorbs the recent uptick in mortgage rates, the combination of strong economic growth and millennials moving toward homeownership should help home sales regain momentum and rise modestly in 2019.” 

Forecast Highlights 

  • After growing at its fastest pace in nearly four years (4.2 percent), the U.S. economy is expected to slow to around 3 percent in the third quarter of 2018. GDP is expected to grow at a rate of 3.0 percent for 2018, slowing to 2.4 percent in 2019, and dropping to 1.8 percent in 2020 as the effects of expansionary fiscal policy fade.  
  • Mortgage rates remained steady at 4.6 percent for the third quarter until the weekly average rate reached a seven-year high at 4.9 percent in the beginning of October. The 30-year fixed-rate is expected to average 4.5 percent in 2018, rising to 5.1 percent in 2019 and 5.6 percent in 2020.
  • Home prices are expected to increase to 5.4 percent in 2018, with the growth rate slowing slightly to 4.6 percent in 2019 and even further to 2.9 percent in 2020.
  • High home prices and borrowing costs continue to affect housing activity. Total home sales (new and existing) are now forecasted to decline modestly this year to 6.07 million, and then regain momentum, increasing 1.8 percent to 6.18 million in 2019 and rising 1.1 percent to 6.25 million in 2020.

Freddie Mac makes home possible for millions of families and individuals by providing mortgage capital to lenders. Since our creation by Congress in 1970, we’ve made housing more accessible and affordable for homebuyers and renters in communities nationwide. We are building a better housing finance system for homebuyers, renters, lenders, investors and taxpayers.

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freddiemac.com

U.S. wages rise the most in a decade | Waccabuc Real Estate

  • Wages and salaries rose 3.1 percent in the third quarter, the biggest increase in a decade, according to the Labor Department.
  • Overall compensation costs were up 2.8 percent, ahead of Wall Street expectations.
  • Wages have been the missing piece in the economic recovery, though the Fed has been raising rates to guard against future inflationary pressures.

Higher wages are very good for real estate

Employment costs rose more than expected in the third quarter in a sign that more inflation could be brewing in the U.S. economy.

The Labor Department’s employment cost index rose 0.8 percent for the period, ahead of the estimate of 0.7 percent from economists surveyed by Refinitiv.

Wages and salaries rose 0.9 percent, well ahead of expectations for 0.5 percent. Benefit costs were up 0.4 percent.

On a yearly basis, wages and salaries jumped 3.1 percent, the biggest increase in 10 years.

Wage increases have been the missing link in the economy since the recovery began in mid-2008. Average hourly earnings have been rising steadily but have stayed below the 3 percent level as slack has remained in the labor market.

However the unemployment rate is now at 3.7 percent, the lowest since 1969, and wage pressures have begun to build. The Federal Reserve has been raising interest rates in an effort to stave off future inflationary pressures, though the central bank’s preferred gauge of inflation rose just 2.5 percent in the third quarter, including a 1.9 percent increase for health benefits.

The wage data came the same day that ADP and Moody’s reported private payroll growth of 227,000 in October, easily beating Wall Street expectations. The combination of news sent Treasury yields higher in morning trading.

Overall compensation costs for civilian workers rose 2.8 percent, tamped down in part by the small rise in benefit costs, which rose 1.9 percent for the 12-month period ending in September. Employers have been looking for non-salary measures to retain workers, but may have to start increasing wages to attract and retain talent.

In addition to the tighter job market, various states, communities and private companies have passed minimum wage increases, adding to inflation pressures.

At an occupational level, compensation costs increased 4.8 percent for information technology and 3.5 percent for sales and office and service occupations.

State and local government compensation costs rose just 2.5 percent, just one-tenth of a point more than the increase for the same period a year ago.

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https://www.cnbc.com/2018/10/31/wages-and-salaries-jump-by-3point1percent-highest-level-in-a-decade.html

Southern California suffers its worst housing slump in over a decade | Waccabuc Real Estate

  • The number of new and existing houses and condominiums sold during the month plummeted nearly 18 percent compared with September 2017, according to CoreLogic.
  • That was the slowest September pace since 2007, when the national housing and mortgage crisis was hitting.
  • The median price of Southern California homes sold in September, $505,000, was still 3.6 percent higher than it was a year ago. That was the lowest annual gain for any month in more than three years.
GP: California real estate for sale Pasadena. 

A property for sale in Arcadia, California.Frederic J. Brown | AFP | Getty Images

Higher mortgage rates and overheated home prices hit Southern California home sales hard in September.

The number of new and existing houses and condominiums sold during the month plummeted nearly 18 percent compared with September 2017, according to CoreLogic. That was the slowest September pace since 2007, when the national housing and mortgage crisis was hitting.

Sales have been falling on an annual basis for much of this year, but this was the biggest annual drop for any month in almost eight years. It was also more than twice the annual drop seen in August.

“The double whammy of higher prices and rising mortgage rates has priced out some would-be buyers and prompted others to take a wait-and-see stance,” said Andrew LePage, a CoreLogic analyst, in the release. “There was one caveat to last month’s sharp annual sales decline — this September had one less business day for recording transactions. Adjusting for that, the year-over-year decline would be about 13 percent, still the largest in four years.”

On a monthly basis, sales fell 22 percent in September compared with August. Sales usually fall about 10 percent from August to September.

We cannot afford the monthly payment

Sales of newly built homes are suffering more than sales of existing homes, likely because fewer are being built compared with historical production levels. Newly built homes also come at a price premium. Sales of newly built homes were 47 percent below the September average dating back to 1988, while sales of existing homes were 22 percent below their long-term average.

The median price of Southern California homes sold in September, $505,000, was still 3.6 percent higher than it was a year ago. That was the lowest annual gain for any month in more than three years.

“Price growth is moderating amid slower sales and more listings in many markets,” LePage said. “This is welcome news for potential homebuyers, but many still face a daunting hurdle – the monthly mortgage payment, which has been pushed up sharply by rising mortgage rates.”

LePage noted that while the median sale price was up 3.6 percent year over year in September, the principal and interest mortgage payment on the median-priced home was up 14.2 percent because mortgage rates increased about 0.8 percentage point over that period.

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https://www.cnbc.com/2018/10/30/southern-california-suffers-its-worst-housing-slump-in-over-a-decade.html?__source=newsletter%7Ceveningbrief

  

Lumber, OSB, and Gypsum Prices Fall | Waccabuc Real Estate

Residential construction goods input prices reversed course in September, increasing 0.2% after declining each of the prior two months, according to the latest Producer Price Index (PPI) release by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The index for inputs to residential construction has risen 5.2% in 2018 and is 10.2% higher than it was in January 2017.


Gypsum prices also reversed trend in September, falling 0.1% (seasonally adjusted) after a combined increase of 6.1% over the prior two months. Since the start of the year, the price index for gypsum products has increased 1.0% per month, on average.


From January to September of 2017, prices paid for gypsum products rose 7.2%. The index has increased 8.1% over the same period in 2018.

The September PPI release continued to capture decreases in prices paid for softwood lumber that began in mid-June. However, even after accounting for the most recent price movements, the average price paid for softwood lumber in 2018 remains the highest on record according to Random Lengths data—18.7% above the prior record set in 1997.


The index for prices paid for OSB (and waferboard) decreased for the second consecutive month (-5.2%, not seasonally adjusted). Prices are down 16.4% since July and have declined in five of the past 12 months.


The index for ready-mix concrete (RMC) prices increased 0.4% (seasonally adjusted), reversing a four-month trend of price declines. After an uncharacteristically large monthly increase in March—when the index rose 3.3%–the PPI for RMC has fallen back in line with its long-run trend.

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http://eyeonhousing.org/2018/10/lumber-osb-and-gypsum-prices-fall-in-september/

Housing starts up 9.4% year over year | Waccabuc Real Estate

United States Housing Starts  1959-2018 

Housing starts in the US jumped 9.2 percent from a month earlier to an annualized rate of 1,282 thousand in August of 2018, recovering  from a 0.3 percent drop in July and beating market expectations of a 5.8 percent rise. Starts increased in the South, the Midwest and the West and were flat in the Northeast. Housing Starts in the United States averaged 1433.04 Thousand units from 1959 until 2018, reaching an all time high of 2494 Thousand units in January of 1972 and a record low of 478 Thousand units in April of 2009.

 

United States Housing Starts

 

US Housing Starts Above Forecasts

Housing starts in the US jumped 9.2 percent from a month earlier to an annualized rate of 1,282 thousand in August of 2018, recovering from a 0.3 percent drop in July and beating market expectations of a 5.8 percent rise. Starts increased in the South, the Midwest and the West and were flat in the Northeast.

Single-family homebuilding, which accounts for the largest share of the housing market, increased 1.9 percent to a rate of 876 thousand units in August; and starts for the volatile multi-family housing segment surged 27.3 percent to a rate of 392 thousand. Starts rose in the Midwest (9.1 percent to 191 thousand), the West (19.1 percent to 318 thousand) and the South (6.5 percent to 674 thousand), but were steady in the Northeast (at 99 thousand). Starts for July were revised to 1,174 thousand from 1,168 thousand.
Building permits dropped 5.7 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,229 thousand, the lowest reading since May of 2017. It compares with market expectations of a 0.1 percent decline to 1,310 thousand and follows a 1.5 percent rise in July. Single-family authorizations fell 6.1 percent to 820 thousand and multi-family permits decreased 4.9 percent to 409 thousand. Declines were seen in all regions: Northeast (-19.2 percent to 101 thousand), the Midwest (-1.7 percent to 178 thousand), the West (-8.4 percent to 304 thousand) and the South (-2.9 percent to 646 thousand).

Year-on-year, housing starts increased 9.4 percent while building permits fell 5.5 percent.

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https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/housing-starts

Marilyn Monroe got married in Westchester | Waccabuc Real Estate

Marilyn Monroe got married in Waccabuc, Westchester.

The actress married playwright Arthur Miller in a short civil ceremony in the White Plains Courthouse in 1956.

It was her third marriage and Miller’s second. Few knew of the impending ceremony.

But their relationship had caused headlines. Miller had divorced his wife to marry Monroe, who had divorced Joe DiMaggio in 1954.

When the news got out of their impending nuptials, the couple held a press conference at Miller’s house in Connecticut on June 29. The local paper had the headline: “Local Resident Will Marry Miss Monroe of Hollywood’, adding, ‘Roxbury Only Spot in World to Greet News Calmly.”

Marilyn Monroe and Arthur Miller held a wedding reception at this Waccabuc home. Karen Croke, kcroke1@lohud.com

Afterwards, they slipped into Westchester and were married in a quick ceremony at the courthouse, after which, as reported the following day in The New York Times, the Millers  “got into their sports car and disappeared into traffic.”

They weren’t heading far.

On July 1, the couple held a Jewish ceremony and wedding reception for 25 guests in the Westchester County home of Miller’s literary agent, Kay Brown.

The home is for sale, listed for $1,675,000 with Susan Stillman of Houlihan Lawrence.

From the outside, it’s not hard to imagine the party that once took place here.

The French Country-style residence built in 1948 seems untouched from those halcyon days when many stars, including Tallulah Bankhead and Benny Goodman lived nearby and fabulous parties were the norm.

The gated property is set on a quiet road with a wonderful view of the surrounding area, and is just across from the 16th hole of the Waccabuc Country Club.

There are many original details, including parquet and tile floors, French doors, leaded windows, and European-style fireplaces. One of the highlights is the living room with walls of glass and terrace exit, a private master suite, and a first-floor guest suite with its own side entrance.

There are four bedrooms and five bathrooms in the home, which is in the Katonah School district.

Outside, the just over 4 acre property is still private and serene. A crescent-shaped lawn terrace steps down to pool and pool house with summer kitchen and cabana, and all surrounded by light woodlands, specimen landscaping and gardens creating sought-after privacy.

Sadly, the Millers were married for only five years before divorcing in 1961. Monroe tragically died the following the year.

 

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https://www.lohud.com/story/money/real-estate/homes/2018/08/08/marilyn-monroes-westchester-wedding-house-sale-1-69-m/922263002/

Mortgage rates average 4.54% | Waccabuc Real Estate

Mortgage Rates Move Up Again

MCLEAN, Va., Sept. 06, 2018 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) — Freddie Mac (OTCQB: FMCC) today released the results of its Primary Mortgage Market Survey® (PMMS®), showing that mortgage rates increased marginally over the past week.

Sam Khater, Freddie Mac’s chief economist, says the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage inched higher for the second straight week. “Borrowing costs may be slowly on the rise again in coming weeks, as investors remain optimistic about the underlying strength of the economy,” he said. “It’s important to note that rates are now up three-quarters of a percentage point from last year and home prices – albeit at a slower pace – are still outrunning rising inflation and incomes.”

Added Khater, “This weakening in affordability is hindering many interested buyers this fall, even as the robust economy brings them into the market. The good news is that purchase mortgage applications have recently rebounded to above year ago levels.”

News Facts

  • 30-year fixed-rate mortgage (FRM) averaged 4.54 percent with an average 0.5 point for the week ending September 6, 2018, up from last week when it averaged 4.52 percent. A year ago at this time, the 30-year FRM averaged 3.78 percent.
  • 15-year FRM this week averaged 3.99 percent with an average 0.4 point, up from last week when it averaged 3.97 percent. A year ago at this time, the 15-year FRM averaged 3.08 percent.
  • 5-year Treasury-indexed hybrid adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) averaged 3.93 percent with an average 0.3 point, up from last week when it with an average 3.85 percent. A year ago at this time, the 5-year ARM averaged 3.15 percent.

Average commitment rates should be reported along with average fees and points to reflect the total upfront cost of obtaining the mortgage. Visit the following link for the Definitions. Borrowers may still pay closing costs which are not included in the survey.

NYS median sales price rises 11.5% | Waccabuc Real Estate

Homebuyer activity remained strong in May, driving the New York State housing market to the second-highest sales total for the month with 10,348 closings, according to the housing market report released today by the New York State Association of REALTORS. May 2018 closed sales were 8.6 percent lower than the record of 11,322 set in May 2017. The median sales price growth trend continued, increasing by 11.5 percent compared to last May, ending the month at $262,000.

“Robust buyer demand continues to keep homes across the Empire State selling at a brisk pace, despite the lower number of homes listed for sale,” said Duncan R. MacKenzie, CEO of the New York State Association of REALTORS. “Newly listed homes are selling more quickly than a year ago as buyers faced with fewer options are eager to get to the closing table. We believe that without the headwind of lower inventory sales would be near the record-setting levels of a year ago.”

“While growing sales prices may entice current owners to bring greatly needed inventory to the market, the combination of higher prices and growing mortgage rates will begin to erode affordability, potentially dampening buyer enthusiasm,” said MacKenzie.

The May 2018 sales total of 10,348 represents a decrease of 8.6 percent from the May 2017 total of 11,322. Year-to-date (Jan. 1 – May 31) sales were 45,005, a decrease of 3 percent from the same period in 2017.

The May 2018 statewide median sales price was $262,000, an increase of 11.5 percent from the May 2017 median of $235,000. The year-to-date (Jan. 1 – May 31) median sales price was $259,000, an increase of 8.6 percent from the same period in 2017.

Pending sales decreased 4.3 percent in May compared to a year ago to reach 13,633.

The average days on market for home sales closed during May 2018 was 80, a decrease from 87 in May 2017. Year-to-date (Jan. 1 – May 31) days on market for closed sales was 85, down from 93 during the same period in 2017.

The months supply of homes for sale dropped 7.8 percent at the end of May to 5.9 months supply. It was at 6.4 months at the end of May 2017. A 6 month to 6.5 month supply is considered to be a balanced market. Inventory stood at 66,682, a decrease of 6.7 percent compared to May 2017.

Additional data is available at http://www.nysar.com/industry-resources/market-dataOpens a New Window.

Editor’s Note: All data is compiled from multiple listing services in the state of New York and the data include townhomes, condominiums and existing single-family homes.