Category Archives: Waccabuc NY

How Dodd-Frank changed housing | Waccabuc Real Estate

The effect of loose lending during the last housing boom was abundantly clear: Nearly 8 million U.S. homes fell into foreclosure. The response was a slew of new lending rules under the Dodd-Frank financial reform law, and the result was a credit lockdown that continues today, nearly five years after the legislation was enacted.

“For lenders this is all about paperwork, verification and doing a lot of the grunt work that was ignored or passed over before the crisis,” said Jaret Seiberg, a managing director at financing firm Guggenheim Securities.

The rules fill thousands of pages and have cost lenders millions of dollars in labor and software to revamp their systems in compliance, but at face value, they’re pretty simple. Highly risky loan products, like negative amortization mortgages, are now banned. Borrowers must document their employment and debt levels. Lenders must disclose all the costs involved in each loan, and, perhaps most important, lenders must verify a borrower’s ability to repay the mortgage.

That last one may sound ridiculous, but it was the fundamental reason for the financial crisis in housing. Borrowers were given loans they could never repay.

“If you’re a high-quality credit consumer, Dodd-Frank just made it a much bigger pain in the butt to get a loan. You’ve got to fill out more paperwork, you’ve got to dig up more tax returns,” said Seiberg. “You’ve got to find information related to retirement accounts, stuff that was never asked for before. But if you’re on the low end of the spectrum, it has made it tougher to get that mortgage.”

So tough that the average FICO credit score on loans made today are the highest in history. Tight credit, though, is blamed for a still-falling homeownership rate, now at the lowest in a quarter century.

“The biggest misconception is that you need a big down payment to buy a house. It’s just not correct. What has changed is not the down payment, it is the credit and the ability to repay rule. Beyond that it’s the documentation piece,” said Craig Strent, CEO of Maryland-based Apex Home Loans. “It’s not hard to qualify, it’s hard to get through the process because of the massive amounts of additional documentation that is now required.”

Foreclosure bank owned house

Getty Images

Borrowers, however, still complain that it is not just the process, but the level of creditworthiness that is keeping them out of the homebuying market; even the Federal Reserve chair, readying to raise interest rates, says credit is too tight.

“Demand for housing is still being restrained by limited availability of mortgage loans to many potential homebuyers,” said the central bank’s chair, Janet Yellen, in testimony to the Senate Banking Committee on Wednesday.

Tight credit is also blamed for a shift in the lending landscape. Large bank lenders are moving out, and independent, nonbank lenders are moving in. Nonbanks now make up 43 percent of mortgage lending today, up from just 10 percent in 2009, according to Inside Mortgage Finance, an industry publication.

“Banks consolidated massively. The big four are so well-diversified that revenue stream from mortgages is not part of their headline strategy,” said Anthony Hsieh, chairman and CEO of California-based loanDepot, a nonbank lender that has grown dramatically in just the past year.

Private sector investors have not returned to the mortgage market. Loans backed by government entities Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and the FHA make up more than 90 percent of all new loans today, a historically high share. During the housing boom they were barely one-third of the market.

“I think Dodd-Frank, not only does it add complexity, but it adds a lot of confusion,” said Hsieh.

It also adds significant costs in time and labor. Lenders like Apex Home Loans have had to hire dozens of additional staff just to comply with new rules.

 

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http://www.cnbc.com/2015/07/16/how-dodd-frank-changed-housing-for-good-and-bad.html

Building Labor Shortage Intensifies | Waccabuc Real Estate

A survey of single-family builders conducted by NAHB in June 2015 shows that shortages of labor and subcontractors—already quite widespread in mid-2014—have become even more widespread during the past year.

The shortages are most acute for basic skills like carpentry, which are needed during the construction of any home.  For example, in the 2015 survey 69 percent of builders reported a shortage (either serious or some) of construction workers willing and able to do rough carpentry.

2015 labor shortages

Builders, however, may be even more concerned about the availability of subcontractors than of workers to employ directly.  In building a single-family home, three-quarters of the construction work is typically done by subcontractors (documented in a 2012 NAHB survey available here).  The rankings of labor and subcontractor shortages in the 2015 survey were similar, but—with the exception of building maintenance managers—the shortages of subcontractors were more widespread.  In the rough carpentry category at the top of  both charts, 74 percent of builders reported a shortage of subcontractors, compared to 69 percent for labor directly employed.

2015 sub shortages

Historically, for every trade covered in the survey, shortages were more widespread in 2015 than in 2014.  One way to see this is to look at the labor shortage percentage averaged across all 9 trades that NAHB surveys have covered in a consistent way since 1996.  This average skyrocketed from a low of 21 percent in 2012 to 46 percent in 2014, before increasing even further to 52 percent in 2015.

Nine trade history

The 9 consistently covered trades are carpenters-rough, carpenters-finished, home electrician services, excavators, framing crews, roofers, plumbers, bricklayers/masons and painters.  The history for each is available in the full report.  The survey’s current list of 12 trades was recommended by Home Builders Institute, NAHB’s workforce development arm.

The incidence of shortages is surprisingly high given the rate of new home construction, which has only partially recovered from its 2008 downturn.  In fact, the 9-trade shortage is now substantially higher than it was at the peak of the 2004-2005 boom, when annual starts were averaging around 2 million, compared to current rates of about 1 million.  The last time builder-reported labor shortages were as widespread as now was just before 2001—during a prolonged period of strong GDP growth with overall unemployment as low as 4.0 percent.

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http://eyeonhousing.org/2015/07/

Housing’s Share of GDP Expanded at the Start of 2015 | Waccabuc Real Estate

With the release of the final estimates of first quarter 2015 GDP growth (a decline of -0.2%), housing’s share of gross domestic product (GDP) grew to 15.45%, with home building and remodeling yielding 3.14 percentage points of that total.

housing share of GDP

Housing-related activities contribute to GDP in two basic ways.

The first is through residential fixed investment (RFI). RFI is effectively the measure of the home building and remodeling contribution to GDP. It includes construction of new single-family and multifamily structures, residential remodeling, production of manufactured homes and brokers’ fees. For the first quarter, RFI was 3.14% of the economy.

The RFI component reached a $512 billion annualized pace during the start of the year. This is the  highest quarterly rate for RFI since the middle of 2008.

The growth for RFI at the start of 2015 added 0.21 points to the headline GDP growth rate (GDP would have declined 0.4% absent the RFI component).

The second impact of housing on GDP is the measure of housing services, which includes gross rents (including utilities) paid by renters, and owners’ imputed rent (an estimate of how much it would cost to rent owner-occupied units) and utility payments. The inclusion of owners’ imputed rent is necessary from a national income accounting approach because without this measure increases in homeownership would result in declines for GDP. For the first quarter, housing services was 12.3% of the economy or $2 trillion on an annualized basis.

Taken together, housing’s share of GDP was 15.45% for the start of the year.

Historically, RFI has averaged roughly 5% of GDP while housing services have averaged between 12% and 13%, for a combined 17% to 18% of GDP. These shares tend to vary over the business cycle.

 

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http://eyeonhousing.org/2015/06/housings-share-of-gdp-expanded-at-the-start-of-2015/

In the Horse Race for Millennials, is Renting Gaining on Buying? | Waccabuc Real Estate

Apartment rents are rising rapidly, up 3.5 percent in 2015, then they are expected to moderate to 3.0 percent in 2016 and 2.7 percent in 2017, according to the Urban Land Institute.  But home sales prices are rising even faster, tipping the scales of the rent vs buy equation towards rentals in the dollar for dollar comparisons Millennials face, according to the latest national housing market index produced by Florida Atlantic University and Florida International University faculty.

As of the end of the first quarter of 2015, the housing market in the U.S. and all 13 cities in the index are trending either closer to renting being the superior option or strictly favoring renting over purchasing a home.

Three of the hottest real estate markets in the nation, Dallas, Denver and Houston, are clearly in rent territory, with property pricing out-pacing rents, meaning buyers should proceed with strong caution.

Seven more cities (Miami, Honolulu, Los Angeles, Pittsburgh, Portland, San Francisco and Seattle) are at or near the indifference point between ownership and renting. Here the spread between monthly rent payments and ownership payments appears to be at a point where neither ownership nor renting is statistically favored.

Four cities (Chicago, Cincinnati, Cleveland and Detroit) remain in strong buy territory with scores that have historically favored wealth accumulation through home ownership.

 

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http://www.realestateeconomywatch.com/2015/06/

Mortgage Debt Outstanding: Using “Scissors” to Cut the Data | Waccabuc Real Estate

According to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s latest Household Debt and Credit Report, total household debt outstanding rose by $24 billion, 0.2%, between the fourth quarter of 2014 and the first quarter of 2015.

The small rise in household debt outstanding over the first quarter of 2015 reflected increases in student loan debt, $32 billion, auto loan debt, $13 billion, and mortgage debt, $1 billion. However, gains in student loan and auto loan debt were partially offset by a $16 billion dollar decline in the amount of credit card debt outstanding and a $6 billion decline in other household debt. Other household debt includes sales financing loans, personal loans, and retail loans such clothing, grocery, department stores, home furnishings, and gas loans. Meanwhile, the outstanding amount of home equity lines of credit was unchanged over the quarter.

Presentation1

A previous post illustrated that the amount of mortgage debt outstanding increased over the past two years. Following 4 consecutive years of declines, mortgage debt outstanding expanded by 0.2% at the end of 2013 and by 1.5% at the close of 2014. The Federal Reserve Board’s Mortgage Debt Outstanding (1.54) indicates that growth is taking place in multifamily lending, while loans secured by single-family residential properties continue to decline. Each quarter, the Federal Reserve Board compiles data on mortgage debt outstanding. This data was previously published in the Supplement to the Federal Reserve Bulletin, which ceased publication in December 2008.

According to Figure 1 above, outstanding loans secured by single-family residential real estate totaled $2.942 trillion at the end of 1992, roughly 11 times greater than the amount of outstanding loans secured by multifamily residential real estate, $271 billion. Although the dollar value of loans secured by multifamily residential real estate rose between 1992 and 2007, the amount of loans secured by single-family residential real estate increased more. Between 1992 and 2007, the year that the amount of mortgage debt outstanding secured by single-family residential real estate peaked, the amount of outstanding loans secured by multifamily residential real estate rose by 194.3% to $797 billion, but, loans secured by single-family residential real estate grew by 282.1% to $11.241 trillion.

However, after reaching its peak, loans secured by single-family residential real estate have declined while outstanding loans secured by multifamily residential real estate have, except for 2010, continued to grow. Figure 1 above shows the opposite trends in these two data series. This chart is commonly referred to as a “scissors” graph because all or a portion of the two series are moving in opposite directions. Between 2007, when the outstanding amount of loans secured by single-family residential real estate peaked, and 2014, outstanding loans secured by single-family residential real estate declined by 12.3% to $9.862 trillion, falling in every included year. Over this same period, loans secured by multifamily residential real estate rose by 24.7% to $994 billion, rising in every year except 2010. At the end of 2010, it was 0.3% less than its level at the end of 2009. Moreover, between the end of 2013 and the end of 2014, the amount of outstanding loans secured by single-family residential real estate fell by $22.1 billion, but the amount of outstanding loans secured by multifamily residential real estate rose by $63.6 billion.

 

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http://eyeonhousing.org/2015/06/mortgage-debt-outstanding-using-scissors-to-cut-the-data/

Lady Violet’s ‘Downton Abbey’ home for sale | #Waccabuc Real Estate

Savills
The dowager countess’s witticisms not included.

If you missed out last year on the listing of the “Godfather House” on Staten Island in New York, maybe this home is more up your abbey — er, alley.

Byfleet Manor, in Surrey, just southwest of London, and dower home to Maggie Smith’s character Lady Violet Crawley in the PBS series “Downton Abbey,” is on the market, according to real estate broker Savills. The price? £3.95 million,or $6.1 million. The Georgian-style brick home, built in 1686 and set on 19 acres, has a walled courtyard, eight bedrooms and four reception rooms — and it’s just 20 miles from central London.

“You get a lot of house for your money,” said Simon Ashwell, the Savills agent who is listing the home for Julie Hutton, the current owner, who bought Byfleet Manor about 10 years ago for £1 million.

Byfleet Manor isn’t one to avoid the cameras. The house also starred in the series “Poirot” and “Cranford” and was the stand-in for Cinderella’s home in the 2014 movie “Into the Woods” with Meryl Streep and Johnny Depp. When it comes to “Downton Abbey,” the home has served as Lady Violet’s house since 2010 after the location agent from the PBS series “Cranford” suggested it to the show’s producers. “We wanted to deliberately pull Violet back into that Georgian world,” Donal Woods, the production designer for “Downton Abbey,” told Savills.

 

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http://www.marketwatch.com/story/lady-violets-downton-abbey-home-for-sale-2015-05-12

Weekly mortgage applications drop | #Waccabuc Real Estate

Mortgage applications gave back their gains last week, falling exactly as much as they had risen the previous week. This as interest rates increased ever so slightly.

Total application volume fell 2.3 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis for the week ending April 24th, but is up nearly 34 percent from a year ago, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA). Applications to refinance home loans fell four percent, while those to purchase a home were unchanged for the week.

“Applications for conventional purchase loans are at their highest level since August 2014,” said Mike Fratantoni, chief economist for the MBA. “With the recent pickup in existing home sales, this is another sign that housing markets are strengthening.”

Still, the stall in purchase application volume is a red flag, given that they had been on a tear, up 13 percent in the past four weeks. It could be a one-week aberration, but it is somewhat unexpected right in the heart of the spring season, traditionally the busiest for home sales. Home price gains have been increasing, as strong buyer demand comes up against very tight supply. That may be playing into the drop in applications—simply that people are not finding the right homes at the right price.

 

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https://homes.yahoo.com/news/weekly-mortgage-applcations-drop-2-110000411.html

Farmers Market in the Area | Waccabuc Real Estate

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Mamaroneck:
Aroma Coffee Roast, Calcutta Kitchens, OM Champagne Tea,
and Robinson & Co. Catering Join Weekly Roster;

Ossining:
Bombay Emerald Chutney Company, Hudson River Apiaries, Nana’s Home Kitchen, and Taiim Falafel Shack Add to Saturday Bounty!


April 9th-15th, 2015

DowntoEarthMarkets.com
BrooklynWinterOffer
 What’s New, In Season, and On Sale This Week
$2 OFF when you buy 2 items: Frozen samosa, kofta, saag, rajma, and/or chutneys
Bombay Emerald Chutney Co.
Chicken Bone Broth
$10 for one 24 oz bag or $18 for two.Great for the “Bone Broth Challenge”
(a cup a day) or in wide variety of cooking!
Yellow Bell Farm
Gluten Free Peasant Bread
Meredith’s Bread

Gluten Free
Rosemary Olive Bread

Meredith’s Bread

Click on a market to see all vendor and event details…

Ossining Winter

Saturdays
9:00 am-1:00 pm
In Market Square: The corner of Spring & Main Streets in downtown Ossining

Mamaroneck Winter

Saturdays
9:00 am-1:00 pm
St. Thomas Episcopal Church
168 W. Boston Post Road

Headed to the city? We’ve got markets there, too. CLICK HERE for details.

Announcements
PieLadyandSon_Mom&Wil_2014

The Fearless Pie Crust with Pie Lady & Son
Wednesday, May 6th, from 7-9 pm
Down to Earth Markets Office, 173 Main Street, 3rd Floor, Ossining, NY

Next up in our Learning Center — and just in time for Mother’s Day — the mother and son team of Deborah and Wil Tyler invite you to learn how to make the perfect pie crust.

Deborah learned to bake during her college studies in England when she worked in the campus kitchen. She was inspired by the lead baker, a woman who made huge batches of all-butter pie crust and who “didn’t even measure the water” for her recipes.

“People have such trepidation about pie crusts, yet this lady was fearless. I didn’t come back with a recipe, but I came home inspired by her style – by her fearlessness,” Deborah explains.

Now all are invited to cast away our pie crust fears forever with Deborah and Wil.

Learning Center tickets are $15/person and available by calling 914-923-4837.
Tickets will also be available on our website shortly. We look forward to seeing you!

For upcoming events, visit our Down to Earth Markets Event Calendar.

Stay tuned to all market happenings via our Down to Earth Markets Facebook page
and follow us on Instagram and on Twitter @DowntoEarthMkts

Rotating* Vendors This Week
*Vendors who rotate through various markets during the season.
They enjoy getting to know many communities. Here’s where to find them this week:

Mamaroneck – Saturday, April 11th

Aroma Coffee Roast
Calcutta Kitchens
OM Champagne Tea
Robinson & Co. Catering (Calling all culinary Anglophiles!)

Ossining – Saturday, April 11th

Bombay Emerald Chutney Company
Hudson River Apiaries
Nana’s Home Kitchen
Taiim Falafel Shack

Strong First Quarter for Consumer Confidence | Waccabuc Real Estate

The University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment reached a ten-year peak of 95.5 in the first quarter of 2015. Although the Index of Consumer Sentiment Index decreased to 93.0 in March from 95.4 in February, it was up from 80.0 from March 2014. The harsh winter dampened the giddiness of falling gasoline prices from the start of the year. Lower income households reported a loss in confidence because they are more sensitive to higher utility costs and disrupted work hours.

The Conference Board Confidence Index increased in March to 101.3 from 98.8 in February. The March increase was driven by the improved short-term prospects for employment and income. However, consumer assessment of current conditions declined for a second consecutive month, suggesting a softening in first quarter growth. The share of consumers expecting more jobs increased in March, and the share anticipating higher incomes increased from 16.4% to 18.4% in March.

Rising consumer confidence and improved job creation numbers are positive indicators for both improved GDP growth and housing demand once the economy clears the first quarter.

UM & CB three month moving average 3 31 2015

 

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http://eyeonhousing.org/2015/03/strong-first-quarter-for-consumer-confidence/