Category Archives: Katonah

Single family home sales fall 7.6% | Katonah Real Estate

United States New Home Sales  

Sales of new single-family houses in the United States fell 7.6 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 609,000 in August of 2016, better than market expectations of an 8.8 percent decline. Figures for the previous month were revised up by 5,000 to 659,000, the highest since 2007. New Home Sales in the United States averaged 652.45 Thousand from 1963 until 2016, reaching an all time high of 1389 Thousand in July of 2005 and a record low of 270 Thousand in February of 2011. New Home Sales in the United States is reported by the U.S. Census Bureau.

United States New Home Sales
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http://www.tradingeconomics.com/united-states/new-home-sales

 

How New Home Buyers Financed Their Homes in 2015 | Katonah Real Estate

NAHB analysis of the Census Bureau Survey of Construction (SOC) data shows that non-conventional forms of financing new single-family home purchases remained elevated in 2015, accounting for more than a third of the market.

Looking at new single-family homes started in 2015, the South Atlantic division was most dependent on non-conventional financing, with its share exceeding 40% of the market. The West South Central and New England divisions registered similarly high shares but relied on very different types of non-conventional financing. In New England, a third of all homes started in 2015 were cash purchases, while loans insured by the Federal Housing Administration (FHA) accounted for less than 3% of the market. In contrast, a home buyer in the South Atlantic and West South Central division relied more heavily on FHA- and VA-backed loans that together accounted for more than 26% and 21% of the market, respectively.

At the opposite end of the spectrum is the East South Central division where only 16% of new homes started in 2015 were financed using non-conventional methods. This share is less than half of the US average of 34.5%, making it the lowest share of non-conventional financing in the nation.

The Pacific and Mountain divisions registered shares of non-conventional financing methods close to the US average, 34% and 36%, respectively. In the middle Atlantic division, one in four single-family homes started in 2015 was financed by non-conventional means. While in the West North Central and East North Central divisions, only one in five new home buyers relied on non-conventional financing.
SOC_financing15
For homes started in 2015, the share of mortgages insured by the FHA bumped up, especially in the Pacific and South Atlantic divisions where FHA loans accounted for 19% and 18%, respectively. This came as good news if you were a first home buyer in Perth. This was largely due to a reduction in FHA mortgage insurance premiums implemented at the start of 2015. As a result, FHA-backed loans regained their status as the most prevalent form of non-conventional financing of new home purchases – the status they temporarily lost to cash purchases a year earlier following the implemented decline in the 2014 FHA loan limits.

The share of VA-backed loans remained relatively stable in 2015, accounting for just over 6% of the market. However, their share was almost twice as high, approaching 12%, in the Mountain division, the only region in the nation where the share of VA-backed loans exceeded that of cash purchases and other types of financing combined.

The share of cash purchases declined in 2015, most dramatically in the Mountain division, where cash purchases lost half of its market share. Overall, cash purchases accounted for 10 percent of the market. New England registered the nation’s highest share, with one in three new homes started in 2015 purchased with cash. The Middle Atlantic and East North Central divisions registered the second and third highest shares – 15% and 14%, respectively. At the other end of the spectrum is the East South Central division where less than 7% of single-family starts were financed with cash.

The high prevalence of cash financing in the New England, East North Central and Middle Atlantic divisions can be partially explained by the popularity of custom homebuilding in these divisions, with all three claiming the top three custom home market shares in 2015. Custom homes are more likely to be financed with cash, especially if built by the owner acting as the general contractor. In 2015, more than 36% of custom homes built by the owner were financed with cash, while less than 7 percent of spec homes were purchased with cash.
Financing
Other types of non-conventional financing methods – such as the Rural Housing Service, Habitat for Humanity, loans from individuals, state or local government mortgage-backed bonds and other – are particularly popular in the West South Central division (7.6%) and South Atlantic division (5.7%), both exceeding the national average of 4.5%.

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http://eyeonhousing.org/2016/08/how-new-home-buyers-financed-their-homes-in-2015/

Related post: We buy any home in the Jacksonville FL area.

Housing starts up 12.36%, down in Northeast | Katonah Real Estate

New Housing Units Started

(Seasonally adj. at Annual Rate, in % Y/Y)

On May 2016 Total housing units starts were at seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,164,000 units, an decrease of 8,000 units or -0.68 % from 1,172,000 units April 2016 and an increase of 12.36 % from 1,036,000 units May 2015.

New Housing Units Started
(Seasonally adj. at Annual Rate, in % Y/Y)
May 2016
prel.
April 2016
prel.
March 2016
prel.
Feb. 2016
prel.
Jan. 2016
prel.
Total12.36 %0.6 %18.68 %35.23 %4.35 %
In structures Single-family units12.35 %8.21 %21.84 %42.5 %11.19 %
In structures with 2 – 4 units95.71 %16.67 %-57.14 %71.43 %260 %
In structures with 5 units or more-2.09 %-12.85 %17.42 %19.87 %-11.61 %
Northeast-41.01 %-29.1 %43.56 %70.21 %37.04 %
Midwest33.56 %12.65 %21.43 %117.53 %0.65 %
South23.84 %18.23 %8.43 %19.07 %9.87 %
West6.72 %-18.69 %29.85 %29.71 %-15.75 %

Multi-family credit tightens | Lewisboro Real Estate

Results from the most recent Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey (SLOOS) indicate that lending standards on multifamily residential mortgages continue to show signs of tightening and the pace of tightening is growing.

The Federal Reserve Board’s SLOOS asks senior loan officers at large banks their opinion on changes in the standards and terms on, and demand for, bank loans to businesses and households over the past three months. In the most recent release, covering the second quarter of 2016, 44.3% of bank respondents indicated that lending standards at their bank had tightened over the quarter.

The net share of banks reporting that standards on multifamily residential mortgages had tightened has widened over the past year. The net share represents the difference between the percentage of banks indicated that standards had tightened and the proportion responding that standards had eased. As shown in Figure 1 below, a net share of 2.9% of banks reported standards had eased in the second quarter of 2015, but in the third quarter, a net percentage of 7.4% of banks reported having tightened standards. The net portion of banks tightening standards on multifamily residential debt rose in the three successive quarters.

Presentation1

A previous post demonstrated that banks account for the majority of multifamily residential debt outstanding. According to an analysis of bank-level call report data provided by the Federal Financial Institutions Examination Council (FFIEC), the share of federally insured depository institutions with an outstanding amount of multifamily residential debt outstanding on their balance sheet, has risen while the amount of debt outstanding has remained stable. In contrast, the proportion of banks with any outstanding amount of 1-4 family first-lien mortgages on their balance sheet has remained steady and fluctuations have occurred in the outstanding amount of 1-4 family first-lien mortgage debt. However, in recent years, growth in the share of banks with outstanding multifamily residential mortgage debt outstanding rose more slowly than the growth in the outstanding amount of multifamily residential debt.

Presentation2

In 2001, approximately 65% of depository institutions had some outstanding multifamily residential debt residing on their balance sheet. As illustrated by the Figure 2 above, the proportion increased 13 percentage points to 78% by 2015. However, much of the growth took place between 2001 and 2012. Between 2012 and 2015, the percentage of banks with multifamily residential debt rose by 1.0 percentage point. By comparison, the share of banks with any 1-4 family first-lien residential mortgage debt remained generally stable over the 2001 to 2015 period at 97%.

Presentation3

As a share of total assets, the total amount of multifamily residential debt outstanding grew slightly between 2001 and 2015, from 1.6% in 2001 to 2.2% in 2015. That growth largely took place in the last few years. Between 2001 and 2012, multifamily residential debt outstanding as a percentage of total assets held steady at 1.6%. Since 2012, multifamily residential debt relative to total assets grew by 0.6 percentage point.

 

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http://eyeonhousing.org/2016/08/more-banks-tighten-credit-standards-on-mf-debt/

Mortgage Rates average 3.69% | Katonah Real Estate

Fixed 30-year mortgage rates in the United States averaged 3.69 percent in the week ending July 22 of 2016, up 4bps from the previous week. Mortgage Rate in the United States averaged 6.45 percent from 1990 until 2016, reaching an all time high of 10.56 percent in April of 1990 and a record low of 3.47 percent in December of 2012. Mortgage Rate in the United States is reported by the Mortgage Bankers Association of America.

United States MBA 30-Yr Mortgage Rate
ActualPreviousHighestLowestDatesUnitFrequency
3.693.6510.563.471990 – 2016percentWeekly
MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate is average 30-year fixed mortgage lending rate measured during the reported week and backed by the Mortgage Bankers Association. . This page provides the latest reported value for – United States MBA 30-Yr Mortgage Rate – plus previous releases, historical high and low, short-term forecast and long-term prediction, economic calendar, survey consensus and news. United States MBA 30-Yr Mortgage Rate – actual data, historical chart and calendar of releases – was last updated on July of 2016.
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http://www.tradingeconomics.com/united-states/mortgage-rate

#Emotions influence the homes we choose | Katonah Real Estate

It’s a fact of life: Homes come with far more emotional weight than any other investment we make.

A home is a refuge from the world, a place to raise a family and, for some people, an investment they hope will bring them a good chunk of money down the road. We fall in love with houses in a way that we never fall in love with a portfolio of stocks and bonds.

All too often, though, we don’t realize that how we feel about homes blinds us when it comes time to buy or sell. We let our emotions blind us to cold facts about the market or the realities of ownership. Or we prioritize one set of emotional needs over others that are just are strong but may not be evident at first. And ignoring them can lead us to make bad financial decisions that can affect us for decades to come.

For instance, people might focus on their desire for a house that’s a certain size or style, but ignore the fact that they want to spend as much time as possible with family. So they might buy a “perfect” house that requires them to make a long daily commute to work and keeps them away from home for two extra hours each day.

The home-selling side of the equation brings its own set of thorny issues. Homeowners often have an overly rosy view of their home and expect it to increase in value far beyond reasonable expectations. And when they put it on the market, they often stubbornly cling to their asking price—even if it means leaving it up for sale far longer than they planned, and risking the possibility of not selling it at all.

Here’s a closer look at some psychological missteps that buyers and sellers often make as they wade into the housing market.

Ignoring the big picture

Home buyers are always on the lookout for features—like a longer driveway or bigger backyard—that will make them happier with their home. But people don’t realize that those changes may not make them happier with their life as a whole.

“When people move to better housing, they think they will be a lot happier overall,” says Shige Oishi, a co-author of a 2010 study on the subject in Social Indicators Research. “When they actually move, however, their overall happiness does not often change because there are many trade-offs in moving.”

One of the biggest trade-offs is commuting. Many move to live in a bigger house, but that bigger house is often farther away from work — so that means more commuting, which tends to add stress and detract from overall happiness. A 2008 study in the Scandinavian Journal of Economics shows that people who had longer commutes reported “lower subjective well-being” than those with shorter commutes. “If you’re moving to a place far away from your friends, but it has nicer stuff, it’s not a great deal for your happiness,” says Elizabeth Dunn, a psychology professor at the University of British Columbia.

In another study in the Personality and Social Psychology Bulletin, Dunn and her co-authors explored the matter of expectations vs. reality in another way — by looking at Harvard undergraduates who were randomly assigned to different dormitories. The study showed that first-year students incorrectly predicted what would bring them the most satisfaction from their dorms — physical features like location on campus, the attractiveness of the residence, room size and desirability of the dining hall and facilities.

In the initial survey, the students put no weight on social features, such as relationships with roommates and a sense of community in the residence. But when the researchers checked back in with the students after they’d been living in their dorms, the only thing that appeared to matter for their happiness was the quality of the social factors.

“It’s so easy to get caught up in comparing the physical features of the places you’re looking at,” says Dunn, “but you should really stop to consider how the places you’re considering will shape your social relationships.”

Overlooking big expenses

People who are buying homes tend to compartmentalize their expenses and not add up the total cost of everything needed to fix up and furnish the house, says Alex Tabarrok, a professor of economics at George Mason University. That can lead them to make poor choices about how much to pay for a home. For instance, they may overspend on a down payment for the house itself and leave themselves without enough money to buy the sort of decorations or furniture that they want. “When you’re getting a house, think about furnishing it at the same time,” says Tabarrok.

 

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http://www.marketwatch.com/story/

US Housing starts flat | Katonah Real Estate

Housing Starts in the United States is expected to be 1163.61 Thousand by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Housing Starts in the United States to stand at 1193.24 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the United States Housing Starts is projected to trend around 1213.00 Thousand in 2020, according to our econometric models.

United States Housing Starts
ForecastActualQ2/16Q3/16Q4/16Q1/172020Unit
Housing Starts116411641175118411931213Thousand
United States Housing Starts Forecasts are projected using an autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model calibrated using our analysts expectations. We model the past behaviour of United States Housing Starts using vast amounts of historical data and we adjust the coefficients of the econometric model by taking into account our analysts assessments and future expectations. The forecast for – United States Housing Starts – was last predicted on Friday, June 17, 2016.
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http://www.tradingeconomics.com/united-states/housing-starts/forecast

30 Year Mortgage rates average 3.57% | Katonah Real Estate

Freddie Mac (OTCQB: FMCC) today released the results of its Primary Mortgage Market Survey® (PMMS®), showing average fixed mortgage rates falling for the third consecutive week following disappointing April employment data. Mortgage rates are at their low point for the year.

News Facts

  • 30-year fixed-rate mortgage (FRM) averaged 3.57 percent with an average 0.5 point for the week ending May 12, 2016, down from last week when it averaged 3.61 percent. A year ago at this time, the 30-year FRM averaged 3.85 percent.
  • 15-year FRM this week averaged 2.81 percent with an average 0.5 point, down from last week when it averaged 2.86 percent. A year ago at this time, the 15-year FRM averaged 3.07 percent.
  • 5-year Treasury-indexed hybrid adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) averaged 2.78 percent this week with an average 0.5 point, down from last week when it averaged 2.80 percent. A year ago, the 5-year ARM averaged 2.89 percent.

Average commitment rates should be reported along with average fees and points to reflect the total upfront cost of obtaining the mortgage. Visit the following link for theDefinitions. Borrowers may still pay closing costs which are not included in the survey.

Quote
Attributed to Sean Becketti, chief economist, Freddie Mac.

“Disappointing April employment data once again kept a lid on Treasury yields, which have struggled to stay above 1.8 percent since late March. As a result, the 30-year mortgage rate fell 4 basis points to 3.57 percent, a new low for 2016 and the lowest mark in 3 years. Prospective homebuyers will continue to take advantage of a falling rate environment that has seen mortgage rates drop in 14 of the previous 19 weeks.”

Pending Sales Down | Cross River Real Estate

The Pending Home Sales Index declined 2.5% in January, but has increased year-over-year for 17 consecutive months. The Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI), a forward-looking indicator based on signed contracts reported by the National Association of Realtors (NAR), decreased 2.5% in January to 106.0 from an upwardly revised 108.7 December, and was 1.4% above the same month a year ago.

Pending Home Sales January 2016

The PHSI increased slightly in the South by 0.3%, but fell in the remaining three regions, ranging from a 3.2% decrease in the Northeast to a 4.9% decrease in the Midwest. Year-over-year, three regions increased, ranging from 10.9% in the Northeast to 0.4% in the West. The South decreased 1.3% from the same month a year ago.

Existing sales increased 11.0% in 2015, and improving economic conditions and rising employment suggest a continuing recovery in existing sales. However, both housing starts and new home sales stumbled in January. Also, the long-term weakness among first-time buyers will continue to dampen all sales in 2016.

 

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http://eyeonhousing.org/2016/02/pending-sales-down-2/