Category Archives: Katonah

Existing home sales down 28% | Katonah Real Estate

Existing-home sales retreated for the ninth straight month in October, according to the National Association of REALTORS®. All four major U.S. regions registered month-over-month and year-over-year declines.

Total existing-home sales,1 https://www.nar.realtor/existing-home-sales – completed transactions that include single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops – decreased 5.9% from September to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.43 million in October. Year-over-year, sales dropped by 28.4% (down from 6.19 million in October 2021).

“More potential homebuyers were squeezed out from qualifying for a mortgage in October as mortgage rates climbed higher,” said NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun. “The impact is greater in expensive areas of the country and in markets that witnessed significant home price gains in recent years.”

Total housing inventory2 registered at the end of October was 1.22 million units, which was down 0.8% from both September and one year ago (1.23 million). Unsold inventory sits at a 3.3-month supply at the current sales pace, up from 3.1 months in September and 2.4 months in October 2021.

“Inventory levels are still tight, which is why some homes for sale are still receiving multiple offers,” Yun added. “In October, 24% of homes received over the asking price. Conversely, homes sitting on the market for more than 120 days saw prices reduced by an average of 15.8%.”

The median existing-home price3 for all housing types in October was $379,100, a gain of 6.6% from October 2021 ($355,700), as prices rose in all regions. This marks 128 consecutive months of year-over-year increases, the longest-running streak on record.

Properties typically remained on the market for 21 days in October, up from 19 days in September and 18 days in October 2021. Sixty-four percent of homes sold in October 2022 were on the market for less than a month.

First-time buyers were responsible for 28% of sales in October, down from 29% in both September 2022 and October 2021. NAR’s 2022 Profile of Home Buyers and Sellers – released earlier this month4 – found that the annual share of first-time buyers was 26%, the lowest since NAR began tracking the data.

All-cash sales accounted for 26% of transactions in October, up from 22% in September and 24% in October 2021.

Individual investors or second-home buyers, who make up many cash sales, purchased 16% of homes in October, up from 15% in September, but down from 17% in October 2021.

Distressed sales5 – foreclosures and short sales – represented 1% of sales in October, down from 2% in September and identical to October 2021.

According to Freddie Mac, the average commitment rate(link is external) for a 30-year, conventional, fixed-rate mortgage was 6.90% in October, up from 6.11% in September. The average commitment rate across all of 2021 was 2.96%.

“Mortgage rates have come down since peaking in mid-November, so home sales may be close to reaching the bottom in the current housing cycle,” Yun said.

Realtor.com®’s Market Trends Report(link is external) in October shows that the largest year-over-year median list price growth occurred in Milwaukee (+34.5%), Miami (+25.1%) and Kansas City (+21.4%). Phoenix reported the highest increase in the share of homes that had prices reduced compared to last year (+35.9 percentage points), followed by Austin (+31.2 percentage points) and Las Vegas (+24.4 percentage points).

Single-family and Condo/Co-op Sales

Single-family home sales declined to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.95 million in October, down 6.4% from 4.22 million in September and 28.2% from one year ago. The median existing single-family home price was $384,900 in October, up 6.2% from October 2021.

Existing condominium and co-op sales were recorded at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 480,000 units in October, down 2.0% from September and 30.4% from the previous year. The median existing condo price was $331,000 in October, an annual increase of 10.1%.

“For consumers looking to buy or sell a home, having a REALTOR® by their side to navigate one of the more challenging and complex markets we’ve seen in some time will be essential to successfully completing transactions,” said NAR President Kenny Parcell, a REALTOR® from Spanish Fork, Utah, and broker-owner of Equity Real Estate Utah. “REALTORS® understand local market conditions and provide timely and trusted advice, from listing to closing.”

Regional Breakdown

Existing-home sales in the Northeast trailed off 6.6% from September to an annual rate of 570,000 in October, a decline of 23.0% from October 2021. The median price in the Northeast was $408,700, an increase of 8.0% from the previous year.

Existing-home sales in the Midwest retracted 5.3% from the previous month to an annual rate of 1,080,000 in October, falling 25.5% from the prior year. The median price in the Midwest was $274,500, up 5.9% from October 2021.

In the South, existing-home sales declined 4.8% in October from September to an annual rate of 1,980,000, a 27.2% decrease from this time last year. The median price in the South was $346,300, an increase of 8.0% from one year ago.

Existing-home sales in the West waned 9.1% from September to an annual rate of 800,000 in October, down 37.5% from one year ago. The median price in the West was $588,400, a 5.3% increase from October 2021.

The National Association of REALTORS® is America’s largest trade association, representing more than 1.5 million members involved in all aspects of the residential and commercial real estate industries.

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For local information, please contact the local association of REALTORS® for data from local multiple listing services (MLS). Local MLS data is the most accurate source of sales and price information in specific areas, although there may be differences in reporting methodology.

NOTE: NAR’s Pending Home Sales Index for October is scheduled for release on November 30, and Existing-Home Sales for November will be released on December 21. Release times are 10 a.m. Eastern.

1 Existing-home sales, which include single-family, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops, are based on transaction closings from Multiple Listing Services. Changes in sales trends outside of MLSs are not captured in the monthly series. NAR benchmarks home sales periodically using other sources to assess overall home sales trends, including sales not reported by MLSs.

Existing-home sales, based on closings, differ from the U.S. Census Bureau’s series on new single-family home sales, which are based on contracts or the acceptance of a deposit. Because of these differences, it is not uncommon for each series to move in different directions in the same month. In addition, existing-home sales, which account for more than 90% of total home sales, are based on a much larger data sample – about 40% of multiple listing service data each month – and typically are not subject to large prior-month revisions.

The annual rate for a particular month represents what the total number of actual sales for a year would be if the relative pace for that month were maintained for 12 consecutive months. Seasonally adjusted annual rates are used in reporting monthly data to factor out seasonal variations in resale activity. For example, home sales volume is normally higher in the summer than in the winter, primarily because of differences in the weather and family buying patterns. However, seasonal factors cannot compensate for abnormal weather patterns.

Single-family data collection began monthly in 1968, while condo data collection began quarterly in 1981; the series were combined in 1999 when monthly collection of condo data began. Prior to this period, single-family homes accounted for more than nine out of 10 purchases. Historic comparisons for total home sales prior to 1999 are based on monthly single-family sales, combined with the corresponding quarterly sales rate for condos.

2 Total inventory and month’s supply data are available back through 1999, while single-family inventory and month’s supply are available back to 1982 (prior to 1999, single-family sales accounted for more than 90% of transactions and condos were measured only on a quarterly basis).

3 The median price is where half sold for more and half sold for less; medians are more typical of market conditions than average prices, which are skewed higher by a relatively small share of upper-end transactions. The only valid comparisons for median prices are with the same period a year earlier due to seasonality in buying patterns. Month-to-month comparisons do not compensate for seasonal changes, especially for the timing of family buying patterns. Changes in the composition of sales can distort median price data. Year-ago median and mean prices sometimes are revised in an automated process if additional data is received.

The national median condo/co-op price often is higher than the median single-family home price because condos are concentrated in higher-cost housing markets. However, in a given area, single-family homes typically sell for more than condos as seen in NAR’s quarterly metro area price reports.

4 Survey results represent owner-occupants and differ from separately reported monthly findings from NAR’s REALTORS® Confidence Index, which include all types of buyers. The annual study only represents primary residence purchases, and does not include investor and vacation home buyers. Results include both new and existing homes.

5 Distressed sales (foreclosures and short sales), days on market, first-time buyers, all-cash transactions and investors are from a monthly survey for the NAR’s REALTORS® Confidence Index, posted at nar.realtor.

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nar.realtor/newsroom/

Mortgage rates average 6.92% | Katonah Real Estate

 Freddie Mac (OTCQB: FMCC) today released the results of its Primary Mortgage Market Survey® (PMMS®), showing the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage (FRM) averaged 6.92 percent.

“Rates resumed their record-setting climb this week, with the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage reaching its highest level since April of 2002,” said Sam Khater, Freddie Mac’s Chief Economist. “We continue to see a tale of two economies in the data: strong job and wage growth are keeping consumers’ balance sheets positive, while lingering inflation, recession fears and housing affordability are driving housing demand down precipitously. The next several months will undoubtedly be important for the economy and the housing market.”

News Facts

  • 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 6.92 percent with an average 0.8 point as of October 13, 2022, up from last week when it averaged 6.66 percent. A year ago at this time, the 30-year FRM averaged 3.05 percent.
  • 15-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 6.09 percent with an average 1.1 point, up from last week when it averaged 5.90 percent. A year ago at this time, the 15-year FRM averaged 2.30 percent.
  • 5-year Treasury-indexed hybrid adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) averaged 5.81 percent with an average 0.2 point, up from last week when it averaged 5.36 percent. A year ago at this time, the 5-year ARM averaged 2.55 percent.

The PMMS® is focused on conventional, conforming, fully amortizing home purchase loans for borrowers who put 20 percent down and have excellent credit. Average commitment rates should be reported along with average fees and points to reflect the total upfront cost of obtaining the mortgage. Visit the following link for the Definitions. Borrowers may still pay closing costs which are not included in the survey.

NOTE: Freddie Mac is making a number of enhancements to the PMMS to improve the collection, quality and diversity of data used. Instead of surveying lenders, the weekly results will be based on applications received from thousands of lenders across the country that are submitted to Freddie Mac when a borrower applies for a mortgage. Additionally, we will no longer publish fees/points or adjustable rates. The newly recast PMMS will be put in place in November 2022, and the weekly distribution will be Thursdays at 12 p.m. noon ET.

Freddie Mac makes home possible for millions of families and individuals by providing mortgage capital to lenders. Since our creation by Congress in 1970, we’ve made housing more accessible and affordable for homebuyers and renters in communities nationwide. We are building a better housing finance system for homebuyers, renters, lenders, investors and taxpayers. Learn more at FreddieMac.com, Twitter @FreddieMac and Freddie Mac’s blog FreddieMac.com/blog.

Mortgage refinancings drop 83% | Katonah Real Estate

Mortgage applications decreased 0.8% last week from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending Sept. 2, 2022, the MBA announced on Sept. 7. The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances increased to 5.94% last week.

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 0.8% on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 2% compared with the previous week. The Refinance Index decreased 1% from the previous week and was 83% lower than the same week one year ago. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 1% from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index decreased 3% compared with the previous week and was 23% lower than the same week one year ago.

“Mortgage rates moved higher over the course of last week as markets continued to re-assess the prospects for the economy and the path of monetary policy, with expectations for short-term rates to move and stay higher for longer,” said Mike Fratantoni, MBA Senior Vice President and Chief Economist.

He continued, “With the 30-year fixed rate rising to the highest level since mid-June, application volumes for both purchase and refinance loans dropped. Recent economic data will likely prevent any significant decline in mortgage rates in the near term, but the strong job market depicted in the August data should support housing demand. There is no sign of a rebound in purchase applications yet, but the robust job market and an increase in housing inventories should lead to an eventual increase in purchase activity.”

The refinance share of mortgage activity increased to 30.7% of total applications from 30.3% the previous week. The adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) share of activity remained unchanged at 8.5% of total applications.

The FHA share of total applications increased to 13.3% from 13.0% the week prior. The VA share of total applications decreased to 10.8% from 11.1% the week prior. The USDA share of total applications remained unchanged at 0.6% from the week prior.

The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($647,200 or less) increased to 5.94% from 5.80%, with points increasing to 0.79 from 0.71 (including the origination fee) for 80% loan-to-value ratio (LTV) loans. The effective rate increased from last week.

The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with jumbo loan balances (greater than $647,200) increased to 5.46% from 5.32%, with points decreasing to 0.4 from 0.48 (including the origination fee) for 80% LTV loans. The effective rate increased from last week.

The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages backed by the FHA increased to 5.61% from 5.57%, with points decreasing to 1.06 from 1.09 (including the origination fee) for 80% LTV loans. The effective rate increased from last week.

The average contract interest rate for 15-year fixed-rate mortgages increased to 5.23% from 5.10%, with points increasing to 0.86 from 0.82 (including the origination fee) for 80% LTV loans. The effective rate increased from last week.

The average contract interest rate for 5/1 ARMs increased to 4.81% from 4.78%, with points increasing to 0.88 from 0.61 (including the origination fee) for 80% LTV loans. The effective rate increased from last week.

The survey covered more than 75% of all U.S. retail residential mortgage applications and has been conducted weekly since 1990. Respondents included mortgage bankers, commercial banks, and thrifts.

read more…

realestateindepth.com/news/

Pending home sales down 13.6% | Katonah Real Estate

Pending home sales increased 0.7% on a month-over-month basis to 99.9 in May, ending a six-month streak of declines, according to the National Association of Realtors (NAR). On a year-over-year basis, pending home transactions decreased 13.6%.

“Despite the small gain in pending sales from the prior month, the housing market is clearly undergoing a transition,” says NAR chief economist Lawrence Yun. “Contract signings are down sizably from a year ago because of much higher mortgage rates.”

According to the NAR, at the median single-family home price and with a 10% down payment, the monthly mortgage payment has increased by approximately $800 since the beginning of the year as mortgage rates have increased 2.5 percentage points since the start of the 2022.

“Trying to balance the housing market by choking off demand via higher mortgage rates is damaging to consumers and the economy,” Yun says. “The better way to balance the market is through increased supply, which also helps the broader economy.”

Yun says variations in home prices and affordability contributed to regional differences in pending sales activity in May, with the largest decline in contract activity occurring in the West, where homes are the most expensive. The Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI) decreased 5% in the West in May and was down 19.8% on a year-over-year basis.

In the Northeast, pending sales increased 15.4% compared with April but decreased 11.9% compared with May 2021. The Midwest PHSI decreased 1.7% in May and 8.8% on a year-over-year basis.

The South PHSI increased 0.2% in May but decreased 13.8% compared with a year ago.

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builderonline.com/data-analysis/

Case Shiller home prices up 20.6% | Katonah Real Estate

National home prices grew at an unsustainable pace in March, reaching an all-time high. This indicates that the imbalanced market with strong demand and record-low inventory continued to put upward pressures on home prices. However, keep in mind this is a backward-looking reading.

The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index, reported by S&P Dow Jones Indices, rose at a seasonally adjusted annual growth rate of 28.2% in March 2022, following a 27.4% increase in February. National home prices are now 60.7% higher than their last peak during the housing boom in March 2006. On a year-over-year basis, the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index posted a 20.6% annual gain in March, after a 20.0% increase in February. The year-over-year home price appreciation slowed a little during the last quarter of 2021, and accelerated in the first three months of 2022, before the spring home-buying season from April to June.

Meanwhile, the Home Price Index, released by the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA), increased at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 19.0% in March, following a 25.0% increase in February. On a year-over-year basis, the FHFA Home Price NSA Index rose by 19.0% in March, following a 19.4% increase in February.

In addition to tracking national home price changes, S&P CoreLogic reported home price indexes across 20 metro areas in March. All 20 metro areas reported positive home price appreciation and their annual growth rates ranged from 8.8% to 57.1%. Among all 20 metro areas, fifteen metro areas exceeded the national average of 28.2%. Dallas led the way with a 57.1% increase, followed by Tampa with a 49.9% increase and Seattle with a 49.2% increase.

The scatter plot below lists the 20 major U.S. metropolitan areas’ annual growth rates in February and in March 2022. The X-axis presents the annual growth rates in February; the Y-axis presents the annual growth rates in March. Seven out of the 20 metro areas had a deceleration in home price growth, including Los Angeles, San Diego, San Francisco, Chicago, Boston, Portland, and Seattle.

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eyeonhousing.org

Home builder confidence falls again | Katonah Real Estate

Sharply rising mortgage rates are taking their toll on the nation’s home builders, as already pricey new construction becomes even less affordable. 

Builder confidence in the market for new single-family homes fell 2 points to 77 in April, according to the National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index. Any reading above 50 is considered positive sentiment, but the reading marks the fourth straight month of declines for the index, which stood at 83 in April 2021.

Of the index’s three components, current sales conditions fell 2 points to 85. Buyer traffic dropped 6 points to 60, and sales expectations in the next six months increased 3 points to 73 following a 10-point drop in March.

“Despite low existing inventory, builders report sales traffic and current sales conditions have declined to their lowest points since last summer as a sharp jump in mortgage rates and persistent supply chain disruptions continue to unsettle the housing market,” said NAHB Chairman Jerry Konter, a builder and developer from Savannah, Georgia.

The average rate on the 30-year fixed mortgage stood at around 3.90% at the beginning of March, and is now up to 5.15%, according to Mortgage News Daily. That is the highest rate in more than a decade. The rate loosely follows the yield on the U.S. 10-year Treasury, which has been on the rise, but is also being impacted as the Federal Reserve pulls out of the mortgage-backed bond market.

Elevated mortgage rates are only exacerbating high prices for both new and existing homes. The median price of a newly built home in February was up over 10% from the year prior.

“The housing market faces an inflection point as an unexpectedly quick rise in interest rates, rising home prices and escalating material costs have significantly decreased housing affordability conditions, particularly in the crucial entry-level market,” said NAHB Chief Economist Robert Dietz.

Regionally, on a three-month moving average, builder sentiment in the Northeast rose 1 point to a reading of 72. In the Midwest it fell 3 points to 69, in the South it fell 2 points to 82 and in the West it fell 1 point to 89.

read more

cnbc.com/

Case-Shiller index reports 18.8% annual home price gain | Katonah Real Estate


S&P Dow Jones Indices (S&P DJI) today released the latest results for the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices, the leading measure of U.S. home prices. Data released today for November 2021 show that home prices continue to increase across the U.S. More than 27 years of history are available for the data series and can be accessed in full by going to https://www.spglobal.com/spdji/.

YEAR-OVER-YEAR
The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index, covering all nine U.S. census divisions, reported an 18.8% annual gain in November, down from 19.0% in the previous month. The 10-City Composite annual increase came in at 16.8%, down from 17.2% in the previous month. The 20- City Composite posted an 18.3% year-over-year gain, down from 18.5% in the previous month.

Phoenix, Tampa, and Miami reported the highest year-over-year gains among the 20 cities in November. Phoenix led the way with a 32.2% year-over-year price increase, followed by Tampa with a 29.0% increase and Miami with a 26.6% increase. Eleven of the 20 cities reported higher price increases in the year ending November 2021 versus the year ending October 2021.

The charts on the following page compare year-over-year returns of different housing price ranges (tiers) for Phoenix and Tampa.


MONTH-OVER-MONTH
Before seasonal adjustment, the U.S. National Index posted a 0.9% month-over-month increase in November, while the 10-City and 20-City Composites posted increases of 0.9% and 1.0%, respectively. After seasonal adjustment, the U.S. National Index posted a month-over-month increase of 1.1%, and the 10-City and 20-City Composites posted increases of 1.1% and 1.2%, respectively. In November, 19 of the 20 cities reported increases before seasonal adjustments while all 20 cities reported increases after seasonal adjustments.


ANALYSIS
“For the past several months, home prices have been rising at a very high, but decelerating, rate. That trend continued in November 2021,” says Craig J. Lazzara, Managing Director at S&P DJI. “The National Composite Index rose 18.8% from year-ago levels, and the 10- and 20-City Composites gained 16.8% and 18.3%, respectively. In all three cases, November’s gains were less than October’s.

Despite this deceleration, it’s important to remember that November’s 18.8% gain was the sixth-highest reading in the 34 years covered by our data (the top five were the months immediately preceding November).

“We continue to see very strong growth at the city level. All 20 cities saw price increases in the year ended November 2021, and prices in 19 cities are at their all-time highs. November’s price increase ranked in the top quintile of historical experience for 19 cities, and in the top decile for 16 of them.

“Phoenix’s 32.2% increase led all cities for the 30th consecutive month. Tampa (+29.0%) and Miami (+26.6%) continued in second and third place in November, narrowly edging out Las Vegas, Dallas, and San Diego. Prices were strongest in the South and Southeast (both +25.0%), but every region continued to log impressive gains.

“We have previously suggested that the strength in the U.S. housing market is being driven in part by a change in locational preferences as households react to the COVID pandemic. More data will be required to understand whether this demand surge represents an acceleration of purchases that would have occurred over the next several years or reflects a more permanent secular change. In the short term, meanwhile, we should soon begin to see the impact of increasing mortgage rates on home
prices.”


SUPPORTING DATA
The chart below depicts the annual returns of the U.S. National, 10-City Composite and 20-City Composite Home Price Indices. The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index, which covers all nine U.S. census divisions, recorded an 18.8% annual gain in November 2021.

The 10-City and 20-City Composites reported year-over-year increases of 16.8% and 18.3%, respectively.


The following chart shows the index levels for the U.S. National, 10-City and 20-City Composite Indices. As of November 2021, average home prices for the MSAs within the 10-City and 20-City Composites are exceeding their winter 2007 levels.

Table 1 below shows the housing boom/bust peaks and troughs for the three composites along with the current levels and percentage changes from the peaks and troughs.


2006 Peak 2012 Trough Current
Index Level Date Level Date
From Peak (%) Level
From Trough (%)
From Peak (%)
National 184.61 Jul-06 134.00 Feb-12 -27.4% 276.12 106.1% 49.6%
20-City 206.52 Jul-06 134.07 Mar-12 -35.1% 282.44 110.7% 36.8%
10-City 226.29 Jun-06 146.45 Mar-12 -35.3% 294.45 101.1% 30.1%


Table 2 below summarizes the results for November 2021. The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices could be revised for the prior 24 months, based on the receipt of additional source data.


November 2021 November/October October/September 1-Year
Metropolitan Area Level Change (%) Change (%) Change (%)
Atlanta 203.24 1.4% 1.3% 21.6%
Boston 281.81 0.0% 0.1% 13.5%
Charlotte 225.11 1.4% 1.5% 22.9%
Chicago 171.49 0.5% 0.5% 11.6%
Cleveland 159.84 0.6% 0.7% 14.0%
Dallas 259.12 1.2% 1.1% 25.0%
Denver 289.73 0.8% 0.2% 20.1%
Detroit 159.40 0.7% 0.2% 14.4%
Las Vegas 261.81 0.9% 1.4% 25.7%
Los Angeles 375.31 1.2% 1.4% 19.0%
Miami 337.50 2.0% 1.9% 26.6%
Minneapolis 217.95 0.3% -0.1% 11.2%
New York 251.45 1.0% 0.8% 13.8%
Phoenix 298.30 1.2% 1.1% 32.2%
Portland 309.19 0.5% 0.3% 17.4%
San Diego 367.62 1.0% 1.1% 24.4%
San Francisco 342.56 0.6% 0.0% 18.2%
Seattle 352.87 1.4% 0.6% 23.3%
Tampa 317.13 2.1% 1.9% 29.0%
Washington 283.66 0.5% 0.0% 11.1%
Composite-10 294.45 0.9% 0.8% 16.8%
Composite-20 282.44 1.0% 0.8% 18.3%
U.S. National 276.12 0.9% 0.8% 18.8%
Sources: S&P Dow Jones Indices and CoreLogic
Data through November 2021


Table 3 below shows a summary of the monthly changes using the seasonally adjusted (SA) and nonseasonally adjusted (NSA) data. Since its launch in early 2006, the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices have published, and the markets have followed and reported on, the non-seasonally adjusted data set used in the headline indices. For analytical purposes, S&P Dow Jones Indices publishes a seasonally adjusted data set covered in the headline indices, as well as for the 17 of 20 markets with tiered price
indices and the five condo markets that are tracked.


November/October Change (%) October/September Change (%)
Metropolitan Area NSA SA NSA SA
Atlanta 1.4% 1.5% 1.3% 1.4%
Boston 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.4%
Charlotte 1.4% 1.5% 1.5% 1.6%
Chicago 0.5% 1.2% 0.5% 0.9%
Cleveland 0.6% 1.2% 0.7% 1.3%
Dallas 1.2% 1.3% 1.1% 1.3%
Denver 0.8% 1.2% 0.2% 0.6%
Detroit 0.7% 1.2% 0.2% 0.9%
Las Vegas 0.9% 1.3% 1.4% 1.7%
Los Angeles 1.2% 1.4% 1.4% 1.4%
Miami 2.0% 2.0% 1.9% 1.9%
Minneapolis 0.3% 0.9% -0.1% 0.3%
New York 1.0% 0.8% 0.8% 0.5%
Phoenix 1.2% 1.4% 1.1% 1.3%
Portland 0.5% 0.9% 0.3% 1.1%
San Diego 1.0% 1.5% 1.1% 1.4%
San Francisco 0.6% 0.8% 0.0% 0.4%
Seattle 1.4% 2.1% 0.6% 1.5%
Tampa 2.1% 2.0% 1.9% 1.8%
Washington 0.5% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0%
Composite-10 0.9% 1.1% 0.8% 0.8%
Composite-20 1.0% 1.2% 0.8% 1.0%
U.S. National 0.9% 1.1% 0.8% 1.0%
Sources: S&P Dow Jones Indices and CoreLogic
Data through November 2021
For more information about S&P Dow Jones Indices, please visit https://www.spglobal.com/spdji/.

Existing home sales up 8.5% in 2021 | Katonah Real Estate

Home sales in the U.S. ended 2021 on a low note in December, but annual sales activity for the entire year reached its highest level since 2006.

Existing home sales fell 4.6% to a seasonally adjusted 6.18 million million units in December from a month earlier, according to the National Association of Realtors (NAR). November existing home sales were revised slightly down to 6.46 million from 6.48 million. The number of sales was down 7.1% from the same month a year ago. The results were far more disappointing than analysts’ expectations of a 0.5% month-over-month decrease to 6.43 million units, according to Bloomberg consensus estimates.

For the entire year, there were 6.12 million units sold in 2021, the most since 2006 and up 8.5% from the prior year when activity was fueled by pent up demand from COVID-19 lockdowns, according to the NAR. Prior to COVID, there were 5 million to 5.5 million unit sales per year. The December results could have been anticipated since pending home sales slipped in November, which is an indicator of future sales activity.

“December saw sales retreat, but the pullback was more a sign of supply constraints than an indication of a weakened demand for housing,” said Lawrence Yun, NAR’s chief economist, also attributing the slowdown in the final month of 2021 to rising mortgage interest rates, “which can produce mixed results. Some people want to hurry and buy, others want to wait to buy. Rising rates will cut into home sales.”

The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rose to its highest level at 3.56%, up from the previous week and hitting a new high not seen since March 2020, according to Freddie Mac. 

“Mortgage rates moved up again as the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rose and financial markets adjusted to anticipated changes in monetary policy that will combat inflation,” said Sam Khater, Freddie Mac’s chief economist, in a press statement. “As a result of higher mortgage rates, purchase demand has modestly waned in advance of the spring homebuying season. However, supply remains near historically tight levels and home prices remain high, keeping the market competitive.

Total housing inventory at the end of December was 910,000 units, down 18.0% from November and down 14.2% from one year ago — the lowest level since 1999, when NAR started tracking inventory for all housing types (NAR started tracking single family home inventory in 1982). Unsold inventory sits at a 1.8-month supply at the present sales pace, down from 2.1 months in November and from 1.9 months in December 2020.

“The fall in existing home sales has nothing to do with demand or interest rates, and everything to do with supply. The previous two months had seen a strong surge in sales, helping to drain inventories and make an already tight market tighter,” said Robert Frick, corporate economist at Navy Federal Credit Union, in a statement. “While mortgage rates are rising, they wouldn’t have affected the December data, and may not have much of an effect on sales as long as they stay well below the historical average. Unfortunately, the tight market continues to push up home prices, with the median price up 15.8% from a year earlier. With every month, fewer first-time homebuyers, especially, can afford a home.”https://flo.uri.sh/visualisation/5640681/embed?auto=1

The median existing-home price for all housing types in December was $358,000, up 15.8% from December 2020 ($309,200), as prices rose in each region. The South witnessed the highest pace of appreciation. The re-acceleration of price increases, from the low teens, in December implies that demand is still strong as supply continues to wane, Yun said. 

Prices were pushed up by the sale of homes in the higher price range. The number of homes sold above $1 million was up 38% from a month ago, while sales of homes from $750,000 to $1 million was up 32%, according to NAR. 

“Although they lagged behind year ago levels, existing home sales hit its 4th straight month at above 6 million in December, closing out 2021 on a relatively high note. Rising concerns about inflation gave home shoppers a big reason to stay in the market in December: The potential opportunity to close on a home before prices and mortgage rates tick up further,” said Realtor.com Chief Economist Danielle Hale in a statement prior to the results.

Hale added: “With housing inventory dwindling and prices rising, finding the right home that’s still in the budget continues to be the hardest part of the real estate journey — and means the supply of for-sale homes remains a key driver of sales activity. This is illustrated by existing home sales trends over the course of 2021, which started strong before dipping in the traditionally busy spring and summer months, when there were few homes available for sale, and then rebounded into the fall as more new sellers meant more options for eager buyers to jump on.” 

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New home sales drop 14% | Katonah Real Estate

New single-family home sales rose in November as housing demand was supported by low interest rates and strong consumer demand, despite the ongoing building materials challenges impacting the housing industry.

The U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development and the U.S. Census Bureau estimated sales of newly built, single-family homes in November at a 744,000 seasonally adjusted annual pace, a 12.4% gain over downwardly revised October rate of 662,000 and is 14.0% below the November 2020 estimate of 865,000.

The gains for new home sales are consistent with the NAHB/Wells Fargo HMI, which edged up to 84 in December, demonstrating that housing is a leading sector for the economy.

Sales-adjusted inventory levels are at a balanced 6.5 months’ supply in November. The count of completed, ready-to-occupy new homes is just 40,000 homes nationwide. Median sales price continues to increase in November at $416,900. This is up 18.8% compared to the November 2020 median sales price of $350,800.

Moreover, sales are increasingly coming from homes that have not started construction, with that count up 75.4% year-over-year, not seasonally adjusted (NSA). These measures point to continued gains for single-family construction ahead.

Regionally on a year-to-date basis, new home sales declined in all four regions; 1.3% in the Northeast, 4.5% in the South, 5.3% in the Midwest, and 12.5% in the West.

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Existing home sales down 5.8%, Median price up 13.1% | Katonah Real Estate

Key Highlights

  • Existing-home sales rose 0.8% in October from September to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 6.34 million, sustaining the growth in sales in the prior month.
  • The median existing-home sales price increased 13.1% year-over-year to $353,900.
  • From one year ago, the inventory of unsold homes decreased 12% to 1.25 million – equivalent to 2.4 months of the monthly sales pace.

Existing-home sales increased in October, marking two straight months of growth, according to the National Association of Realtors®. Two of the four major U.S. regions saw month-over-month sales climb, one region reported a drop and the fourth area held steady in October. On a year-over-year basis, each region witnessed sales decrease.

Total existing-home sales,[i] https://www.nar.realtor/existing-home-sales, completed transactions that include single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops, rose 0.8% from September to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 6.34 million in October. Sales fell 5.8% from a year ago (6.73 million in October 2020).

“Home sales remain resilient, despite low inventory and increasing affordability challenges,” said Lawrence Yun, NAR’s chief economist. “Inflationary pressures, such as fast-rising rents and increasing consumer prices, may have some prospective buyers seeking the protection of a fixed, consistent mortgage payment.”

Total housing inventory[ii] at the end of October amounted to 1.25 million units, down 0.8% from September and down 12.0% from one year ago (1.42 million). Unsold inventory sits at a 2.4-month supply at the current sales pace, equal to September’s supply, and down from 2.5 months in October 2020.

The median existing-home price[iii] for all housing types in October was $353,900, up 13.1% from October 2020 ($313,000), as prices climbed in each region. This marks 116 straight months of year-over-year increases, the longest-running streak on record.

“Among some of the workforce, there is an ongoing trend of flexibility to work anywhere, and this has contributed to an increase in sales in some parts of the country,” said Yun. “Record-high stock markets and all-time high home prices have worked to significantly raise total consumer wealth and, when coupled with extended remote work flexibility, elevated housing demand in vacation regions.”

Properties typically remained on the market for 18 days in October, up from 17 days in September and down from 21 days in October 2020. Eighty-two percent of homes sold in October 2021 were on the market for less than a month.

In October, first-time buyers were responsible for 29% of sales, up from 28% in September and down from 32% in October 2020. NAR’s 2021 Profile of Home Buyers and Sellers – released earlier this month[iv] – reported that the annual share of first-time buyers was 34%.

Individual investors or second-home buyers, who make up many cash sales, purchased 17% of homes in October, up from both 13% in September and from 14% in October 2020. All-cash sales accounted for 24% of transactions in October, up from both 23% in September and from 19% in October 2020.

Distressed sales[v] – foreclosures and short sales – represented less than 1% of sales in October, equal to the percentage seen a month prior and equal to October 2020.

According to Freddie Mac, the average commitment rate for a 30-year, conventional, fixed-rate mortgage was 3.07 in October, up from 2.90% in September. The average commitment rate across all of 2020 was 3.11%.

Single-family and Condo/Co-op Sales

Single-family home sales rose to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.66 million in October, up 1.3% from 5.59 million in September and down 5.8% from one year ago. The median existing single-family home price was $360,800 in October, up 13.5% from October 2020.

Existing condominium and co-op sales were recorded at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 680,000 units in October, down 2.9% from 700,000 in September and down 5.6% from one year ago. The median existing condo price was $296,700 in October, an annual increase of 8.7%.

“At a time when mortgage rates are still low, buying and securing a home is a wise investment,” said NAR President Leslie Rouda Smith, a Realtor® from Plano, Texas, and a broker associate at Dave Perry-Miller Real Estate in Dallas. “NAR will strive to make homeownership obtainable for all who want to pursue one of the key components of the American Dream.”

Regional Breakdown

Existing-home sales in the Northeast fell 2.6% in October, registering an annual rate of 750,000, a 13.8% decline from October 2020. The median price in the Northeast was $379,100, up 6.4% from one year ago.

Existing-home sales in the Midwest rose 4.2% to an annual rate of 1,500,000 in October, a 6.3% decrease from a year ago. The median price in the Midwest was $259,800, a 7.8% jump from October 2020.

Existing-home sales in the South increased 0.4% in October, posting an annual rate of 2,780,000, a 3.5% drop from one year ago. The median price in the South was $315,500, a 16.1% climb from one year prior.

Existing-home sales in the West neither rose nor fell from the prior month’s level, registering an annual rate of 1,310,000 in October, down 5.1% from one year ago. The median price in the West was $507,200, up 7.7% from October 2020.

The National Association of Realtors® is America’s largest trade association, representing more than 1.5 million members involved in all aspects of the residential and commercial real estate industries.

# # #

For local information, please contact the local association of Realtors® for data from local multiple listing services (MLS). Local MLS data is the most accurate source of sales and price information in specific areas, although there may be differences in reporting methodology.

NOTE: NAR’s Pending Home Sales Index for October is scheduled for release on November 29, and Existing-Home Sales for November will be released December 22; release times are 10:00 a.m. ET.

Information about NAR is available at www.nar.realtor. This and other news releases are posted on the NAR Newsroom at www.nar.realtor/newsroom. Statistical data in this release, as well as other tables and surveys, are posted in the “Research and Statistics” tab.

[i] Existing-home sales, which include single-family, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops, are based on transaction closings from Multiple Listing Services. Changes in sales trends outside of MLSs are not captured in the monthly series. NAR rebenchmarks home sales periodically using other sources to assess overall home sales trends, including sales not reported by MLSs.

Existing-home sales, based on closings, differ from the U.S. Census Bureau’s series on new single-family home sales, which are based on contracts or the acceptance of a deposit. Because of these differences, it is not uncommon for each series to move in different directions in the same month. In addition, existing-home sales, which account for more than 90% of total home sales, are based on a much larger data sample – about 40% of multiple listing service data each month – and typically are not subject to large prior-month revisions.

The annual rate for a particular month represents what the total number of actual sales for a year would be if the relative pace for that month were maintained for 12 consecutive months. Seasonally adjusted annual rates are used in reporting monthly data to factor out seasonal variations in resale activity. For example, home sales volume is normally higher in the summer than in the winter, primarily because of differences in the weather and family buying patterns. However, seasonal factors cannot compensate for abnormal weather patterns.

Single-family data collection began monthly in 1968, while condo data collection began quarterly in 1981; the series were combined in 1999 when monthly collection of condo data began. Prior to this period, single-family homes accounted for more than nine out of 10 purchases. Historic comparisons for total home sales prior to 1999 are based on monthly single-family sales, combined with the corresponding quarterly sales rate for condos.

[ii] Total inventory and month’s supply data are available back through 1999, while single-family inventory and month’s supply are available back to 1982 (prior to 1999, single-family sales accounted for more than 90% of transactions and condos were measured only on a quarterly basis).

[iii] The median price is where half sold for more and half sold for less; medians are more typical of market conditions than average prices, which are skewed higher by a relatively small share of upper-end transactions. The only valid comparisons for median prices are with the same period a year earlier due to seasonality in buying patterns. Month-to-month comparisons do not compensate for seasonal changes, especially for the timing of family buying patterns. Changes in the composition of sales can distort median price data. Year-ago median and mean prices sometimes are revised in an automated process if additional data is received.

The national median condo/co-op price often is higher than the median single-family home price because condos are concentrated in higher-cost housing markets. However, in a given area, single-family homes typically sell for more than condos as seen in NAR’s quarterly metro area price reports.

[iv] Survey results represent owner-occupants and differ from separately reported monthly findings from NAR’s Realtors® Confidence Index, which include all types of buyers. Investors are under-represented in the annual study because survey questionnaires are mailed to the addresses of the property purchased and generally are not returned by absentee owners. Results include both new and existing homes.

[v] Distressed sales (foreclosures and short sales), days on market, first-time buyers, all-cash transactions and investors are from a monthly survey for the NAR’s Realtors® Confidence Index, posted at nar.realtor.

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