A brief decline in mortgage rates helped to boost new home sales in August but sales are expected to move lower in the months ahead as rates have since moved higher and builder sentiment continues to fall due to declining housing affordability and ongoing supply chain bottlenecks.
Sales of newly built, single-family homes in August increased 28.8% to a 685,000 seasonally adjusted annual rate from an upwardly revised reading in July, according to newly released data by the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development and the U.S. Census Bureau. New home sales are down 14% on a year-to-date basis despite the August upturn. Additionally, as sales cancellation rates increase, it is important to keep in mind that the Census data do not incorporate cancellation data. According to recent NAHB surveys, new home sales cancellations were approximately 25% in late August.
The August new home sales data indicate two important factors about the future path of single-family home building. There remains significant, unmet structural demand for housing (that is, a mismatch between the number of potential households and available housing). However, in the short-run the cyclical impacts of higher interest rates are the primary factor determining actualized, market demand for housing. Together, these factors point to ongoing weakness for single-family housing in the coming quarters, followed by a rebound in 2024 as interest rates eventually ease.
New single-family home inventory remained elevated at an 8.1 months’ supply. The count of homes available for sale, 461,000, is up 24.6% over last year. Of this total, only 49,000 of the new home inventory is completed and ready to occupy. The remaining have not started construction or are currently under construction. Inventories of new homes should fall in the months ahead as single-family permitting and construction starts slow.
Reflecting gains for construction costs, the median new home price in August was $436,800, up 8.2% from a year ago. This is a diminished growth rate as a growing number of builders cut prices due to slackening demand. According to survey data collected with the NAHB/Wells Fargo HMI, 24% of builders reported reducing home prices in September, up from 19% last month. Importantly, for housing affordability conditions, a year ago 25% of new home sales were priced below $300,000. In August, this share fell to just 12%.
Regionally, on a year-to-date basis, new home sales fell in all four regions, down 15.6% in the Northeast, 24.5% in the Midwest, 10.8% in the South and 16.7% in the West.
The 10-City composite rose 14.9% year over year, down from 17.4% in June.
The 20-City composite gained 16.1%, down from 18.7% in the previous month.
Tampa, Miami and Dallas saw the highest annual gains among the 20 cities in July, with increases of 31.8%, 31.7% and 24.7%, respectively.
A ‘for sale’ sign is displayed outside a single family home on September 22, 2022 in Los Angeles, California.
U.S. home prices cooled in July at the fastest rate in the history of the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Index, according to a report released Tuesday.
Home prices in July were still higher than they were a year ago, but cooled significantly from June gains. Prices nationally rose 15.8% over July 2021, well below the 18.1% increase in the previous month, according to the report.
The 10-City composite, which tracks prices in major metropolitan areas such as New York and Boston, climbed 14.9% year over year, down from 17.4% in June. The 20-City composite, which adds regions such as the Seattle metro area and greater Detroit, gained 16.1%, down from 18.7% in the previous month. July’s year-over-year gains were lower compared with June in each of the cities covered by the index.
“July’s report reflects a forceful deceleration,” wrote Craig J. Lazzara, managing director at S&P DJI in a release, noting the difference in the annual gains in June and July. The 2.3 percentage point “difference between those two monthly rates of gain is the largest deceleration in the history of the index.”
Tampa, Florida, Miami and Dallas saw the highest annual gains among the 20 cities in July, with increases of 31.8%, 31.7% and 24.7%, respectively. Washington, D.C., Minneapolis and San Francisco saw the smallest gains, but were still well above year-ago levels.
Another recent report from the National Association of Realtors showed home prices softening dramatically from June to July. Prices usually fall during that time, due to the strong seasonality of the housing market, but the decline was three times the average decline historically.
The share of homes with price cuts reached about 20% in August, the same as in 2017, according to Realtor.com.
“For homeowners planning to list, today’s market is significantly different than the one from even 3 weeks ago,” said George Ratiu, senior economist and manager of economic research at Realtor.com.
Home prices are dropping because affordability has weakened dramatically due to fast-rising mortgage rates. The average rate on the popular 30-year fixed mortgage started this year around 3%, but by June had briefly surpassed 6%. It remained in the high 5% range throughout July and is now edging toward 7%, making the average monthly payment about 70% higher than it was a year ago.
“As the Federal Reserve continues to move interest rates upward, mortgage financing has become more expensive, a process that continues to this day. Given the prospects for a more challenging macroeconomic environment, home prices may well continue to decelerate,” Lazzara said.
Existing-home sales decreased for the seventh straight month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.80 million. Sales tailed off 0.4% from July and 19.9% from the previous year.
The median existing-home sales price rose 7.7% from one year ago to $389,500.
After five successive monthly increases, the inventory of unsold existing homes dwindled to 1.28 million by the end of August, or the equivalent of 3.2 months at the current monthly sales pace.
WASHINGTON (September 21, 2022) – Existing-home sales experienced a slight dip in August, marking the seventh consecutive month of declines, according to the National Association of REALTORS®. Month-over-month sales varied across the four major U.S. regions as two regions recorded increases, one was unchanged and the other posted a drop. On a year-over-year basis, however, sales fell in all regions.
Total existing-home sales,1https://www.nar.realtor/existing-home-sales, completed transactions that include single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops, notched a minor contraction of 0.4% from July to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.80 million in August. Year-over-year, sales faded by 19.9% (5.99 million in August 2021).
“The housing sector is the most sensitive to and experiences the most immediate impacts from the Federal Reserve’s interest rate policy changes,” said NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun. “The softness in home sales reflects this year’s escalating mortgage rates. Nonetheless, homeowners are doing well with near nonexistent distressed property sales and home prices still higher than a year ago.”
Total housing inventory2 registered at the end of August was 1,280,000 units, a decrease of 1.5% from July and unchanged from the previous year. Unsold inventory sits at a 3.2-month supply at the current sales pace – identical to July and up from 2.6 months in August 2021.
“Inventory will remain tight in the coming months and even for the next couple of years,” Yun added. “Some homeowners are unwilling to trade up or trade down after locking in historically-low mortgage rates in recent years, increasing the need for more new-home construction to boost supply.”
The median existing-home price3 for all housing types in August was $389,500, a 7.7% jump from August 2021 ($361,500), as prices ascended in all regions. This marks 126 consecutive months of year-over-year increases, the longest-running streak on record. However, it was the second month in a row that the median sales price retracted after reaching a record high of $413,800 in June, the usual seasonal trend of prices declining after peaking in the early summer.
Properties typically remained on the market for 16 days in August, up from 14 days in July and down from 17 days in August 2021. Eighty-one percent of homes sold in August 2022 were on the market for less than a month.
First-time buyers were responsible for 29% of sales in August, consistent with July 2022 and August 2021. NAR’s 2021 Profile of Home Buyers and Sellers – released in late 20214 – reported that the annual share of first-time buyers was 34%.
All-cash sales accounted for 24% of transactions in August, the same share as in July, but up from 22% in August 2021.
Individual investors or second-home buyers, who make up many cash sales, purchased 16% of homes in August, up from 14% in July and 15% in August 2021.
Distressed sales5 – foreclosures and short sales – represented approximately 1% of sales in August, essentially unchanged from July 2022 and August 2021.
According to Freddie Mac, the average commitment rate(link is external) for a 30-year, conventional, fixed-rate mortgage was 5.22% in August, down from 5.41% in July. The average commitment rate across all of 2021 was 2.96%.
Realtor.com®‘s Market Trends Report(link is external) in August shows that the largest year-over-year median list price growth occurred in Miami (+33.4%), Memphis (+25.8%) and Milwaukee (+25.0%). Phoenix reported the highest increase in the share of homes that had their prices reduced compared to last year (+30.9 percentage points), followed by Austin (+24.8 percentage points) and Las Vegas (+24.4 percentage points).
Single-family and Condo/Co-op Sales
Single-family home sales decreased to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.28 million in August, down 0.9% from 4.32 million in July and down 19.2% from the previous year. The median existing single-family home price was $396,300 in August, up 7.6% from August 2021.
Existing condominium and co-op sales were recorded at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 520,000 units in August, up 4.0% from July and down 24.6% from one year ago. The median existing condo price was $333,700 in August, an annual increase of 7.8%.
“In a sense, we’re seeing a return to normalcy with the homebuying process as it relates to home inspections and appraisal contingencies, as those crazy bidding wars have essentially stopped,” said NAR President Leslie Rouda Smith, a REALTOR® from Plano, Texas, and a broker associate at Dave Perry-Miller Real Estate in Dallas. “In an ever-changing market, REALTORS® help consumers successfully manage the complexities of buying or selling homes.”
Regional Breakdown
Existing-home sales in the Northeast grew 1.6% from July to an annual rate of 630,000 in August, down 13.7% from August 2021. The median price in the Northeast was $413,200, an increase of 1.5% from the previous year.
Existing-home sales in the Midwest fell 3.3% from the prior month to an annual rate of 1,160,000 in August, retreating 15.9% from August 2021. The median price in the Midwest was $287,900, up 6.6% from the previous year.
At an annual rate of 2,130,000 in August, existing-home sales in the South were identical to July but down 19.3% from one year ago. The median price in the South was $356,000, an increase of 12.4% from August 2021.
Existing-home sales in the West expanded 1.1% compared to last month to an annual rate of 880,000 in August, down 29.0% from this time last year. The median price in the West was $602,900, a 7.1% increase from August 2021.
The National Association of REALTORS® is America’s largest trade association, representing more than 1.5 million members involved in all aspects of the residential and commercial real estate industries.
Freddie Mac (OTCQB: FMCC) today released the results of its Primary Mortgage Market Survey® (PMMS®), showing that the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage (FRM) averaged 6.29 percent.
“The housing market continues to face headwinds as mortgage rates increase again this week, following the 10-year Treasury yield’s jump to its highest level since 2011,” said Sam Khater, Freddie Mac’s Chief Economist. “Impacted by higher rates, house prices are softening, and home sales have decreased. However, the number of homes for sale remains well below normal levels.”
News Facts
30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 6.29 percent with an average 0.9 point as of September 22, 2022, up from last week when it averaged 6.02 percent. A year ago at this time, the 30-year FRM averaged 2.88 percent.
15-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 5.44 percent with an average 1.0 point, up from last week when it averaged 5.21 percent. A year ago at this time, the 15-year FRM averaged 2.15 percent.
5-year Treasury-indexed hybrid adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) averaged 4.97 percent with an average 0.4 point, up from last week when it averaged 4.93 percent. A year ago at this time, the 5-year ARM averaged 2.43 percent.
The PMMS® is focused on conventional, conforming, fully amortizing home purchase loans for borrowers who put 20 percent down and have excellent credit. Average commitment rates should be reported along with average fees and points to reflect the total upfront cost of obtaining the mortgage. Visit the following link for the Definitions. Borrowers may still pay closing costs which are not included in the survey.
NOTE: Freddie Mac is making a number of enhancements to the PMMS to improve the collection, quality and diversity of data used. Instead of surveying lenders, the weekly results will be based on applications received from thousands of lenders across the country that are submitted to Freddie Mac when a borrower applies for a mortgage. Additionally, we will no longer publish fees/points or adjustable rates. The newly recast PMMS will be put in place in November 2022, and the weekly distribution will be Thursdays at 12 p.m., noon, ET.
Freddie Mac makes home possible for millions of families and individuals by providing mortgage capital to lenders. Since our creation by Congress in 1970, we’ve made housing more accessible and affordable for homebuyers and renters in communities nationwide. We are building a better housing finance system for homebuyers, renters, lenders, investors and taxpayers. Learn more at FreddieMac.com, Twitter @FreddieMac and Freddie Mac’s blog FreddieMac.com/blog.
Freddie Mac today released the results of its Primary Mortgage Market Survey, showing that the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage (FRM) averaged 5.89 percent.
“Mortgage rates rose again as markets continue to manage the prospect of more aggressive monetary policy due to elevated inflation,” said Sam Khater, Freddie Mac’s Chief Economist. “Not only are mortgage rates rising but the dispersion of rates has increased, suggesting that borrowers can meaningfully benefit from shopping around for a better rate. Our research indicates that borrowers could save an average of $1,500 over the life of a loan by getting one additional rate quote and an average of about $3,000 if they get five quotes.”
News Facts
30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 5.89 percent with an average 0.7 point as of September 8, 2022, up from last week when it averaged 5.66 percent. A year ago at this time, the 30-year FRM averaged 2.88 percent. 15-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 5.16 percent with an average 0.8 point, up from last week when it averaged 4.98 percent. A year ago at this time, the 15-year FRM averaged 2.19 percent. 5-year Treasury-indexed hybrid adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) averaged 4.64 percent with an average 0.4 point, up from last week when it averaged 4.51 percent. A year ago at this time, the 5-year ARM averaged 2.42 percent. The PMMS is focused on conventional, conforming, fully amortizing home purchase loans for borrowers who put 20 percent down and have excellent credit. Average commitment rates should be reported along with average fees and points to reflect the total upfront cost of obtaining the mortgage. Visit the following link for the Definitions. Borrowers may still pay closing costs which are not included in the survey.
Freddie Mac makes home possible for millions of families and individuals by providing mortgage capital to lenders. Since our creation by Congress in 1970, we’ve made housing more accessible and affordable for homebuyers and renters in communities nationwide. We are building a better housing finance system for homebuyers, renters, lenders, investors and taxpayers. Learn more at FreddieMac.com, Twitter @FreddieMac and Freddie Mac’s blog FreddieMac.com/blog.
Mortgage applications for new-home purchases in June decreased 12% compared with a year ago, according to the latest Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) Builder Application Survey (BAS). Compared with May, applications decreased by 10%.
“Higher mortgage rates and heightened economic uncertainty cooled borrower demand in June, leading to new-home purchase applications declining to the lowest level since April 2020,” says Joel Kan, MBA’s associate vice president of economic and industry forecasting. “Additionally, new residential construction and permitting activity weakened from March through May, reducing the number of homes available for home buyers. MBA’s estimate of new-home sales for June fell to a pace of 620,000 homes, a 15% drop of over 100,000 units compared to May.”
The MBA estimates new single-family home sales were running at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 620,000 units in June, based on data from the BAS. The new-home sales estimate is derived using mortgage application information from the BAS, as well as assumptions regarding market coverage and other factors.
The seasonally adjusted estimate for June is a decrease of 14.7% from the May pace of 727,000 units. On an unadjusted basis, MBA estimates that there were 57,000 new-home sales in June, a decrease of 6.6% from 61,000 new-home sales in May.
By product type, conventional loans composed 73.7% of loan applications, FHA loans composed 15%, RHS/USDA loans composed 0.5%, and VA loans composed 10.7%. The average loan size of new homes decreased from $430,855 in May to $426,966 in June.
The MBA Mortgage Application Index declined 8.1% last week, following the prior week’s decrease of 1.2%. The downward move came as a 14.4% drop in the Refinance Index was accompanied by a 1.5% fall for the Purchase Index. The average 30-year mortgage rate extended its climb, jumping 23 basis points (bps) to 4.50%, and is up 114 bps versus a year ago.
In other housing news, new home sales (chart) fell 2.0% month-over-month (m/m) in February to an annual rate of 772,000 units, shy of the Bloomberg consensus forecast calling for a rate of 810,000 units, and below January’s downwardly-revised 788,000-unit level. The median home price rose 10.7% y/y to $400,600. New home inventory rose to 6.3 months from January’s level of a 6.1-months supply at the current sales pace. Sales jumped m/m in the Northeast, and were higher in the Midwest, while lower in the South and West. Sales in all regions were lower y/y, except for the Northeast which gained ground. New home sales are based on contract signings, offering a timelier read on housing activity compared to the larger contributor of existing home sales, which are based on closings
S&P Dow Jones Indices (S&P DJI) today released the latest results for the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices, the leading measure of U.S. home prices. Data released today for November 2021 show that home prices continue to increase across the U.S. More than 27 years of history are available for the data series and can be accessed in full by going to https://www.spglobal.com/spdji/.
YEAR-OVER-YEAR The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index, covering all nine U.S. census divisions, reported an 18.8% annual gain in November, down from 19.0% in the previous month. The 10-City Composite annual increase came in at 16.8%, down from 17.2% in the previous month. The 20- City Composite posted an 18.3% year-over-year gain, down from 18.5% in the previous month.
Phoenix, Tampa, and Miami reported the highest year-over-year gains among the 20 cities in November. Phoenix led the way with a 32.2% year-over-year price increase, followed by Tampa with a 29.0% increase and Miami with a 26.6% increase. Eleven of the 20 cities reported higher price increases in the year ending November 2021 versus the year ending October 2021.
The charts on the following page compare year-over-year returns of different housing price ranges (tiers) for Phoenix and Tampa.
MONTH-OVER-MONTH Before seasonal adjustment, the U.S. National Index posted a 0.9% month-over-month increase in November, while the 10-City and 20-City Composites posted increases of 0.9% and 1.0%, respectively. After seasonal adjustment, the U.S. National Index posted a month-over-month increase of 1.1%, and the 10-City and 20-City Composites posted increases of 1.1% and 1.2%, respectively. In November, 19 of the 20 cities reported increases before seasonal adjustments while all 20 cities reported increases after seasonal adjustments.
ANALYSIS “For the past several months, home prices have been rising at a very high, but decelerating, rate. That trend continued in November 2021,” says Craig J. Lazzara, Managing Director at S&P DJI. “The National Composite Index rose 18.8% from year-ago levels, and the 10- and 20-City Composites gained 16.8% and 18.3%, respectively. In all three cases, November’s gains were less than October’s.
Despite this deceleration, it’s important to remember that November’s 18.8% gain was the sixth-highest reading in the 34 years covered by our data (the top five were the months immediately preceding November).
“We continue to see very strong growth at the city level. All 20 cities saw price increases in the year ended November 2021, and prices in 19 cities are at their all-time highs. November’s price increase ranked in the top quintile of historical experience for 19 cities, and in the top decile for 16 of them.
“Phoenix’s 32.2% increase led all cities for the 30th consecutive month. Tampa (+29.0%) and Miami (+26.6%) continued in second and third place in November, narrowly edging out Las Vegas, Dallas, and San Diego. Prices were strongest in the South and Southeast (both +25.0%), but every region continued to log impressive gains.
“We have previously suggested that the strength in the U.S. housing market is being driven in part by a change in locational preferences as households react to the COVID pandemic. More data will be required to understand whether this demand surge represents an acceleration of purchases that would have occurred over the next several years or reflects a more permanent secular change. In the short term, meanwhile, we should soon begin to see the impact of increasing mortgage rates on home prices.”
SUPPORTING DATA The chart below depicts the annual returns of the U.S. National, 10-City Composite and 20-City Composite Home Price Indices. The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index, which covers all nine U.S. census divisions, recorded an 18.8% annual gain in November 2021.
The 10-City and 20-City Composites reported year-over-year increases of 16.8% and 18.3%, respectively.
The following chart shows the index levels for the U.S. National, 10-City and 20-City Composite Indices. As of November 2021, average home prices for the MSAs within the 10-City and 20-City Composites are exceeding their winter 2007 levels.
Table 1 below shows the housing boom/bust peaks and troughs for the three composites along with the current levels and percentage changes from the peaks and troughs.
2006 Peak 2012 Trough Current Index Level Date Level Date From Peak (%) Level From Trough (%) From Peak (%) National 184.61 Jul-06 134.00 Feb-12 -27.4% 276.12 106.1% 49.6% 20-City 206.52 Jul-06 134.07 Mar-12 -35.1% 282.44 110.7% 36.8% 10-City 226.29 Jun-06 146.45 Mar-12 -35.3% 294.45 101.1% 30.1%
Table 2 below summarizes the results for November 2021. The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices could be revised for the prior 24 months, based on the receipt of additional source data.
November 2021 November/October October/September 1-Year Metropolitan Area Level Change (%) Change (%) Change (%) Atlanta 203.24 1.4% 1.3% 21.6% Boston 281.81 0.0% 0.1% 13.5% Charlotte 225.11 1.4% 1.5% 22.9% Chicago 171.49 0.5% 0.5% 11.6% Cleveland 159.84 0.6% 0.7% 14.0% Dallas 259.12 1.2% 1.1% 25.0% Denver 289.73 0.8% 0.2% 20.1% Detroit 159.40 0.7% 0.2% 14.4% Las Vegas 261.81 0.9% 1.4% 25.7% Los Angeles 375.31 1.2% 1.4% 19.0% Miami 337.50 2.0% 1.9% 26.6% Minneapolis 217.95 0.3% -0.1% 11.2% New York 251.45 1.0% 0.8% 13.8% Phoenix 298.30 1.2% 1.1% 32.2% Portland 309.19 0.5% 0.3% 17.4% San Diego 367.62 1.0% 1.1% 24.4% San Francisco 342.56 0.6% 0.0% 18.2% Seattle 352.87 1.4% 0.6% 23.3% Tampa 317.13 2.1% 1.9% 29.0% Washington 283.66 0.5% 0.0% 11.1% Composite-10 294.45 0.9% 0.8% 16.8% Composite-20 282.44 1.0% 0.8% 18.3% U.S. National 276.12 0.9% 0.8% 18.8% Sources: S&P Dow Jones Indices and CoreLogic Data through November 2021
Table 3 below shows a summary of the monthly changes using the seasonally adjusted (SA) and nonseasonally adjusted (NSA) data. Since its launch in early 2006, the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices have published, and the markets have followed and reported on, the non-seasonally adjusted data set used in the headline indices. For analytical purposes, S&P Dow Jones Indices publishes a seasonally adjusted data set covered in the headline indices, as well as for the 17 of 20 markets with tiered price indices and the five condo markets that are tracked.
November/October Change (%) October/September Change (%) Metropolitan Area NSA SA NSA SA Atlanta 1.4% 1.5% 1.3% 1.4% Boston 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.4% Charlotte 1.4% 1.5% 1.5% 1.6% Chicago 0.5% 1.2% 0.5% 0.9% Cleveland 0.6% 1.2% 0.7% 1.3% Dallas 1.2% 1.3% 1.1% 1.3% Denver 0.8% 1.2% 0.2% 0.6% Detroit 0.7% 1.2% 0.2% 0.9% Las Vegas 0.9% 1.3% 1.4% 1.7% Los Angeles 1.2% 1.4% 1.4% 1.4% Miami 2.0% 2.0% 1.9% 1.9% Minneapolis 0.3% 0.9% -0.1% 0.3% New York 1.0% 0.8% 0.8% 0.5% Phoenix 1.2% 1.4% 1.1% 1.3% Portland 0.5% 0.9% 0.3% 1.1% San Diego 1.0% 1.5% 1.1% 1.4% San Francisco 0.6% 0.8% 0.0% 0.4% Seattle 1.4% 2.1% 0.6% 1.5% Tampa 2.1% 2.0% 1.9% 1.8% Washington 0.5% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% Composite-10 0.9% 1.1% 0.8% 0.8% Composite-20 1.0% 1.2% 0.8% 1.0% U.S. National 0.9% 1.1% 0.8% 1.0% Sources: S&P Dow Jones Indices and CoreLogic Data through November 2021 For more information about S&P Dow Jones Indices, please visit https://www.spglobal.com/spdji/.
Home prices rose 18.6% annually in June, up from a 16.8% increase in May, according to the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller national home price index.
Prices are now 41% higher than their last peak during the housing boom in 2006.
Home prices continue to surge due to strong demand and persistent low supply.
Douglas Elliman Real Estate open house
Home prices rose 18.6% annually in June, up from the 16.8% increase in May, according to the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller national home price index.
That is the largest annual gain in the history of the index dating back to 1987. Prices nationally are now 41% higher than their last peak during the housing boom in 2006.
Unlike other median price surveys, which can be skewed by the type of homes selling, this measures repeat sales of similar homes over time.
The 10-City composite rose 18.5%, up from 16.6% in the previous month. The 20-City composite was up 19.1%, up from 17.1% in the previous month.
Phoenix, San Diego, and Seattle reported the strongest price increases of the 20 cities. Prices in Phoenix increased 29.3% year-over-year. In San Diego they rose 27.1%, and in Seattle they were up 25.0%. All 20 cities reported higher price increases in the year ending June 2021 versus the year ending May 2021.
“The last several months have been extraordinary not only in the level of price gains, but in the consistency of gains across the country,” said Craig Lazzara, managing director and global head of index investment strategy at S&P DJI. “In June, all 20 cities rose, and all 20 gained more in the 12 months ended in June than they had gained in the 12 months ended in May.”
Prices in just about every city in the 20-city index, except for Chicago, are at all-time highs, he said, as are the national composition and the 10- and 20-city indices.
Home prices continue to surge due to strong demand and persistent low supply. While supply has been increasing month to month, it was still down 12% in July year-over-year, according to the National Association of Realtors.
Peter Boockvar, chief investment officer at Bleakley Advisory group, said prices are rising at “a really out of control pace that is unsustainable and unhealthy.”
Home sales, however, have started to cool. Signed contracts on existing homes dropped in July, according to the National Association of Realtors. Prices usually lag sales by about six months, so that could be a sign that price gains will stop accelerating as they have been for over a year.
“According to new Ally Home data, 45% of buyers say they have delayed purchasing a home due to market conditions, with 29% citing high home prices and 20% indicating homes selling too quickly as factors in this delay,” says Glenn Brunker, president of Ally Home.
Low mortgage rates continue to keep prices strong. Rates will rise if the Federal Reserve slows its purchases of mortgage-backed bonds, but so far that is not expected to happen in the near term.
After notable and expected downward revisions for prior months, May recorded a decline of 5.9% for sales of newly-constructed single family homes, according to estimates from the Census Bureau and HUD. The May seasonally adjusted annual rate (769k) was the lowest in a year, due to builders slowing sales as a consequence of higher material costs and declining availability of labor, material and lots.
Residential demand continues to be supported by low interest rates, a renewed consumer focus on the importance of housing, and solid demand in lower-density markets like suburbs and exurbs. However, higher building costs, longer delivery times, and general unpredictability in the residential construction supply-chain are having measurable impacts on new home prices. In May, the median price of a newly-built home was 18% higher than a year ago, at $374,400. As NAHB has estimated, higher lumber costs alone are increasing new home prices by $36,000 on average.
Higher costs have priced out buyers, particularly at the lower end of the market. A year ago, 44% of new home sales were priced below $300,000. In May 2021, only 26% of new home sales were priced below $300,000.
Looking back to the spring of last year, the April 2020 data (570,000 annualized pace) marks the low point of sales for the 2020 recession. The April 2020 rate was 26% lower than the prior peak, pre-recession rate set in January. Sales then mounted a historic surge from April until July, outpacing gains in actual construction. Sales have been above the pace of the post-Great Recession trend since the second half of last year. However, since January the trend has been declining and has now dipped below the long-run trend (as indicated by the blue dashed line in the graph above).
Sales-adjusted inventory levels remained healthy in May, although they did increase to a 5.1 months’ supply.
Completed ready-to-occupy homes continue to fall as a share of new home inventory. Such homes were just under 24% of inventory a year ago. They are only a little more than 11% of the total in May 2021.
Moreover, to see how sales patterns have changed in a high demand, low supply market — the count of new homes sold that had not started construction is up 76 percent over the last year. The count of new homes sold that are completed and ready to occupy is down 33 percent.
Regionally on a year-to-date basis new home sales rose in all four regions, up 48.7% in the Northeast, 33.5% in the Midwest, 32.3% in the South, and 5.6% in the West. These significant increases are due in part to lower sales volume during the Covid crisis a year ago.
