Category Archives: Armonk

New York City housing shortage could create economic headwind | Armonk Real Estate

The lack of affordable housing in New York City and its suburbs could threaten job creation and future economic job growth, according to a new report from the city’s Planning Department.

“The region’s housing supply has not been keeping up with job growth in recent years,” the report said. “This pattern would be expected to heighten affordability challenges and create headwinds to further business growth.”

Released Wednesday, the 32-page report found that New York averaged just 45,800 permits for new apartments and homes per year between 2009 and 2018. That’s down about 30 percent from the period between 2001 and 2008, when the city and its tri-state suburbs averaged 63,600 units per year.

The Central Park Tower, center, is under construction, Tuesday, Sept. 17, 2019 in New York. At 1550 feet (472 meters) the tower is the world’s tallest residential apartment building, according to the developer, Extell Development Co. (AP Photo/Mark L

Prior to the financial crisis, the city and its suburbs, including Long Island, Westchester, northern New Jersey and Connecticut, created an average of 2.2 new houses or apartments per new job. But that number has slipped in the decade since the recession as job growth skyrocketed, falling to just 0.5 units added per job.

Over the last 10 years, New York City averaged 20,000 new homes or apartments annually, granting far more housing permits than any of its suburbs.

City Hall said in a statement to the New York Post, which first reported the news, that in 2018, New York issued 22,000 new housing units.

“It’s key that we continue to produce housing at a high pace, and we need our neighbors to do the same if we are going to address regional housing affordability and support economic growth,” City Planning spokeswoman Rachaele Raynoff told the Post.

According to an “Affordability Index” published by Comptroller Scott Stringer, the impacts of expensive housing costs varied across households. Rent swallowed up 37 percent of the average single adult’s earnings, but that figure, at 47 percent, was even higher for single parents. It accounted for 26 percent of married couples’ budgets.

“New York City’s affordability crisis impacts every New Yorker and every community — and the numbers laid out in our affordability index shine a light on this worsening crisis,” Stringer said.

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https://www.foxbusiness.com/real-estate/new-york-city-housing-shortage-jeopardizes-economic-boom

CA/NY rent control’s “chilling effect” on development | Armonk Real Estate

Equity Group president Sam Zell (Credit: Getty Images, iStock, Equity Apartments)

Equity Group president Sam Zell (Credit: Getty Images, iStock, Equity Apartments)

Sam Zell’s Equity Residential said rent control is having a “chilling effect” on capital going into development.

The real estate investment trust, which owns 80,000 units nationwide, saw its total revenue from rental income and fee and asset management increase to $685 million in the third quarter, from $652 million a year earlier. But on Wednesday’s third-quarter earnings call, executives pointed to how the recent overhaul of rent laws in New York and California were impacting the company’s bottom line.

Equity Residential, which owns 9,600 apartments in New York, said it experienced a 50 basis point drop in renewal increases on rentals in the second half of the year in the state — plus a $400,000 loss in application and late fees.

In June, application fees on rental apartments in New York were capped at $20 dollars for rental apartments. Late fees were also limited to $50 or 5 percent of the rent, whichever is less, and can only be charged after five days of non-payment. Equity Residential has been selling off some of its residential holdings in New York over the last year or so.

Meanwhile, in California, 70 percent of Equity Residential’s 36,805 units will be affected by the state’s new rent control measure, which caps annual rent increases to 5 percent above the consumer price index.

The firm also had stern words for lawmakers who enacted rent control in California and those who tightened regulations in New York, assuring investors that it would not sit idly by while activists continue to push for regulations.

“Through our trade associations, we’ll encourage lawmakers to remove regulatory barriers to new housing construction and incentives to build housing,” said CEO Mark Parrell.

Equity Residential, a member of the California Apartment Association, a real estate trade association that represents large owners and institutional investors, spent $4.3 million to oppose California’s Proposition 10 last year. While the measure was ultimately unsuccessful, the bill’s promoter, Aids Health Foundation CEO Michael Weinstein, is gathering signatures for another similar measure to lift restrictions on rent control.

On the company’s second-quarter earnings call in May, Parrell said, “rent control is a risk, just like climate change, just like the financial strength of the municipality.”

The REIT, a subsidiary of Zell’s Equity Group, has holdings primarily in Boston, New York, Washington, D.C., Seattle, San Francisco, Southern California and Denver.

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https://therealdeal.com/national/2019/10/23/equity-residential-decries-rent-controls-chilling-effect-on-development-on-q3-earnings-call

Mortgage rates average 3.65% | Armonk NY Real Estate

Freddie Mac (OTCQB: FMCC) today released the results of its Primary Mortgage Market Survey® (PMMS®), showing that the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage (FRM) averaged 3.65 percent, a slight increase from last week.

“While mortgage rates generally held steady this week, overall mortgage demand remained very strong, rising over fifty percent from a year ago thanks to increases in both refinance and purchase mortgage applications,” said Sam Khater, Freddie Mac’s Chief Economist. “As economic growth decelerates, it is clear that low mortgage rates will continue to support the mortgage market and we expect that to persist for the remainder of the year.”

News Facts

  • 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 3.65 percent with an average 0.6 point for the week ending September 26, 2019, slightly up from last week when it averaged 3.64 percent. A year ago at this time, the 30-year FRM averaged 4.71 percent. 
  • 15-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 3.14 percent with an average 0.5 point, down from last week when it averaged 3.16 percent. A year ago at this time, the 15-year FRM averaged 4.15 percent. 
  • 5-year Treasury-indexed hybrid adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) averaged 3.38 percent with an average 0.4 point, unchanged from last week. A year ago at this time, the 5-year ARM averaged 4.01 percent.

2019 Builders choice and custom home design awards | Armonk Real Estate

Casey Dunn

Sixteen projects earned accolades from our panel of judges for this year’s Builder’s Choice & Custom Home Design Awards program, representing some of the best residential design work being constructed today.

Overall, the jurors—J. Carson Looney of Memphis, Tenn.–based Looney Ricks Kiss, Michael Hennessey of San Francisco–based Michael Hennessey Architecture, and Jonathan Tate of New Orleans–based Office of Jonathan Tate—praised function in smaller footprints, use of innovative building materials, and remodels that respect the existing architecture. From production homes to interior renovations to meticulously crafted custom abodes, there is no shortage of inspiration below for you to reimagine for your own projects.

EXPLORE: ALL PROJECT OF THE YEAR GRAND AWARD MERIT AWARD

PROJECT OF THE YEARSugar Shack Residence

GRAND AWARDRenovation on Cox’s Row

GRAND AWARDGlen Ellen Aerie

GRAND AWARDOld Orchard

GRAND AWARDOne Museum Place

MERIT AWARDBlack Metal & White Plaster

MERIT AWARDLipton Thayer Brick House

MERIT AWARDBridgehampton House

MERIT AWARDTree House

MERIT AWARDVenice Beach

MERIT AWARDGrant Street House

MERIT AWARDBlue Sail

MERIT AWARDBig Mouth House

MERIT AWARDThe Sanctuary

MERIT AWARDQuimby Pool House

MERIT AWARDScott’s Grove
Affordable Housing

View past years’ Builder’s Choice & Custom Home Design Award winners here.

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https://www.builderonline.com/design/awards/2019-builders-choice-custom-home-design-awards_o?utm_source=newsletter&utm_content=Article&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=BP_091019&

Housing is providing another in a line of troubling signs pointing to an economic downturn | Armonk Real Estate

GP: Home for sale New home sales.

A for sale sign stands before property for sale in Monterey Park, California.Frederic J. Brown | AFP | Getty Images

A Federal Reserve economist says the current housing backdrop is similar to recent economic slumps, with several metrics “consistent with the possibility of a late 2019 or early 2020 recession.”

“Data on single-family home sales through May 2019 confirm that housing markets in all regions of the country are weakening,” the St. Louis Fed’s William R. Emmons said in a report posted on the central bank district’s site. “The severity of the housing downturn appears comparable across regions—in all cases, it’s much less severe than the experience leading to the Great Recession but similar to the periods before the 1990-91 and 2001 recessions.”

Specifically, Emmons looked at sales numbers for the 12 months ending May 2019 compared to the average over the past three years. He uses December 2019 as the “plausible month for peak growth” in the current case, and then looks at how far back from the peak was the first month in which sales fell below their three-year average in the previous three recessions. 

WATCH NOWVIDEO02:50Here’s what Fannie Mae is forecasting for the housing market

The process may seem at least somewhat opaque, but Emmons said it has been a reliable indicator from the housing market for when the next recession is due — usually about a year away, according to historical trends.

In the Northeast, for instance, August 2018 was the first month that sales fell below the region’s three-year average. That would be 16 months from the December 2019 assumed peak. In the previous recessions, the first negative month respectively came 23, 10 and 21 months before the peak. That would put the current pattern within the historical range, Emmons wrote.

These charts look at how each region stacks up. The four lines each represent a recession; the deviation of the 12-month sales average toward the three-year average decreases until it goes negative; the charts then show how long it took before a recession hit:

In addition to the sales numbers, Emmons said current mortgage rates, inflation-adjusted house prices and residential investment’s contribution to economic growth are similar to patterns that preceded the most recent three recessions.

Single-family home sales work best as indicator, he said, because the other metrics are national in nature and thus don’t reflect whether the deterioration has spread through all regions.

“Considering signals from other housing indicators and from indicators outside housing with good forecasting track records (such as the Treasury yield curve), the regional housing data noted here merit close attention,” Emmons wrote.Calling for rate cut

The St. Louis Fed, where Emmons works, is led by its president, James Bullard, who has been one of the loudest voices on the Federal Open Market Committee advocating for an interest rate cut. Bullard was the lone member of the monetary policymaking body in June to vote against keeping the benchmark funds rate steady. He is advocating an “insurance” cut to head off anticipated economic weakness.

Markets are anticipating up to three rate cuts this year, though most Fed officials have not committed to policy easing ahead of the July 30-31 FOMC meeting.

There are mounting signs that global weakness and business concerns over tariffs could hamper U.S. growth or cause an outright recession.

The New York Fed uses the spread between the 10-year and three-month Treasury yields to determine the probability of a recession over the next 12 months. That part of the yield curve has inverted, which has been a reliable recession indicator. Chances for negative growth by May 2020 are at 29.6%, up from 27.5% in April and the highest level since May 31, 2008, just as the financial crisis was set to explode in September.

Still, there are hopes that the U.S. can withstand a significant downturn.

Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester, in a speech Tuesday, pointed out that the economy has been resilient through growth scares during a recovery that began 10 years ago. Mester said she expects housing to be neutral for growth this year.

Also, Joseph LaVorgna, chief Americas economist at Latixis, said a diffusion index of leading economic indicators is showing positive trends for six out of 10 components, indicating that “the risk of a downturn remains relatively low.”

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https://www.cnbc.com/2019/07/02/home-sales-point-to-recession-in-late-2019-or-2020-fed-economist-says.html?__source=newsletter%7Ceveningbrief

Existing home sales up, prices up | Armonk Real Estate

Existing home sales rebound, but manufacturing and services sector activity cools

Existing-home sales rebounded in May, increasing 2.5% month-over-month (m/m) to an annual rate of 5.34 million units, compared to the Bloomberg expectation of a rise to 5.27 million units and April’s upwardly-revised 5.21 million rate.

Sales of single-family homes were higher m/m, but down from year-ago levels, while purchases of condominiums and co-ops rose compared to last month and were down y/y.

The median existing-home price rose 4.8% from a year ago to $277,700, and marking the 87th straight month of y/y gains.

Unsold inventory came in at a 4.3-months pace at the current sales rate, up from 4.2 months a year ago. Sales rose in all regions, with the Northeast seeing the largest increase.

National Association of Realtors Chief Economist Lawrence Yun said, “The purchasing power to buy a home has been bolstered by falling mortgage rates, and buyers are responding,” adding, that “solid demand along with inadequate inventory of affordable homes have pushed the median home price to a new record high.”

More people moving to the Exurbs | Armonk Real Estate

Welcome to the exurbs: remote areas just beyond the more affluent suburbs that have seen a wave of activity from builders and home shoppers.

According to a recent report by the National Association of Home Builders, the exurbs were the only regions that saw an annual increase in single-family permits in the first quarter of 2019. People are moving a lot these days and we know that moving can be time-consuming and stressful. With wilmington moving company you’ll be able to transport your furniture as quickly as you need to they have the best commercial movers.

Posting a 1.6% year-over-year gain, the exurbs are home to just 9% of the nation’s single-family construction. But while this might not seem like much, its share is growing – a fact that some analysts say is raising red flags.

Why? The last time the exurbs saw activity increase was during the housing boom, when speculators got a bit over-excited about the opportunity to make the big bucks by flipping homes on the cheap. Learn How much does it cost to hire moving companies Denver online and get professional help during this process. But when the bubble burst, these areas were largely abandoned, and builders were left deep in the red.

A renewed surge of activity in exurban areas is a key indicator of a general lack of affordability that is plaguing the housing market. When moving from one house to another I fully suggest working with this moving supplies company they have the best residential movers. Whether you need everything handled for you from start to finish, or only need a little assistance with packing, they can design a move plan specifically to meet your timeline, budget and preferences.

“A shortage of buildable and affordable lots is forcing builders to increasingly look further outside of suburban and metropolitan areas to find cheaper land that provides more building opportunities,” explained NAHB Chairman Greg Ugalde.

NAHB Chief Economist Robert Dietz said the data highlights the fact that housing costs are increasing at a faster pace in large metro suburban counties.

“Supply-side issues that are hurting affordability and raising costs for builders include excessive regulations, labor shortages, rising material costs and a dearth of buildable lots in mid- to high population centers,” Dietz said.

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Priced out of the housing market, more Americans move to the “exurbs”

Mortgage rates average 4.27% | Armonk Real Estate

For the fourth straight month, information compiled by Freddie Mac shows that mortgage rates continued to fall in March 2019. The 30-year FRM – Commitment rate, fell by ten basis points to 4.27 percent from 4.37 percent in February. The cycle peak was 4.87 percent in November.

The Federal Housing Finance Agency reported that the contract rate for newly-built homes, also declined by five basis points to 4.53 percent in March. Mortgage rates on purchases of newly built homes (MIRS) declined by ten basis points over the month of March to 4.36 percent from 4.46 percent in February.

According to the May 2019 Federal Open Market Committee meeting statement, the Fed is likely to continue a “patient approach” stance to rate setting for the next several months. As expected, it kept the target for the federal funds rate at its setting of 2.25-2.50 percent. The post-meeting statement characterized growth as solid, but noted that broad inflation measures had declined and were running below the FOMC’s 2% inflation target. The Committee continues to view sustained expansion of economic activity, strong labor market conditions, and inflation near the two percent objective as the most likely outcomes. Considering global economic and financial developments and muted inflation pressures, the Committee will be patient as it determines what future adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate may be appropriate to support these outcomes.

As of the end of March, the 10-year Treasury rate, is slightly up to 2.52%. The increased rate has contributed to an increase in the mortgage interest rates in the last few weeks. The average 30-Year Fixed market rate, according to Freddie Mac, was at 4.20% at the end of April compared to 4.06% at the end of March. At the end of 2018, the average 30-Year Fixed market rate was 4.64%.

Refinancing Activity Soars Due to Rate Declines | Armonk Real Estate

Amid growing concerns about housing affordability, the latest data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) weekly mortgage applications survey show a surge in mortgage refinancing, a week-to-week increase of 39% on a seasonally adjusted basis. The increase is contemporaneous with the fourth consecutive week of mortgage rates’ declining. Despite the widespread decrease in mortgage rates, changes in purchasing activity (i.e., purchases on new or existing homes) were not as sensitive to the drop as were applications to refinance.

The last 20 years’ data of the MBA’s Purchasing and Refinancing Indexes show that refinancing activity of homes is often volatile. In early 2000, refi and purchase applications were almost the same but, the refinancing index climbed to multiples of the purchasing index over the next few years. The current period shows this divergence, as higher levels than the current level of refinancing had not been seen since late 2016.

The data also show that purchase applications are almost 10% higher than they were a year ago, that refinance applications are 58% higher on a year-over-year basis, and that, combined, both purchase and refi applications are almost 30% higher than they were a year ago. Despite the tight lending environment of 2019, as anticipated by banks’ senior loan officers in the Federal Reserve’s Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey, the data show a rise in applications on a year-to-date and year-over-year basis, which may partially offset tighter lending standards. The mortgage applications for purchase index is usually a leading indicator for forthcoming home sales, but the latter may be conflated by other factors, such as all-cash sales. The prior few months’ data lean less to such a conclusion, as the upward trend of the purchase index in January 2019 was subsequently followed up by increases in new and existing home sales in February.

read more…

http://eyeonhousing.org/2019/04/refinancing-activity-soars-due-to-rate-declines/

Mortgage rates average 4.08% | Armonk Real Estate

Mortgage Rates Remain Stable
 Freddie Mac (OTCQB: FMCC) today released the results of its Primary Mortgage Market Survey® (PMMS®), showing that mortgage rates held steady after seeing major drops last week. Sam Khater, Freddie Mac’s chief economist, says, “Purchase mortgage application demand saw the second highest weekly increase over the last year and thanks to a spike in refinancing activity, overall mortgage demand rose to the highest level since the fall of 2016.”Khater continued, “While the housing market has faced many head winds the last few months, it sailed through the turbulence to calmer seas with demand buttressed by a strong labor market and low mortgage rates. The benefits of the decline in mortgage rates that we’ve seen this year will continue to unfold over the next few months due to the lag from changes in mortgage rates to market sentiment and ultimately home sales.”

News Facts30-year fixed-rate mortgage (FRM) averaged 4.08 percent with an average 0.5 point for the week ending April 4, 2019, up from last week when it averaged 4.06 percent. A year ago at this time, the 30-year FRM averaged 4.40 percent. 15-year FRM this week averaged 3.56 percent with an average 0.4 point, down from last week when it averaged 3.57 percent. A year ago at this time, the 15-year FRM averaged 3.87 percent. 5-year Treasury-indexed hybrid adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) averaged 3.66 percent with an average 0.4 point, down from last week when it averaged 3.75 percent. A year ago at this time, the 5-year ARM averaged 3.62 percent.Average commitment rates should be reported along with average fees and points to reflect the total upfront cost of obtaining the mortgage. Visit the following link for the Definitions. Borrowers may still pay closing costs which are not included in the survey.Freddie Mac makes home possible for millions of families and individuals by providing mortgage capital to lenders. Since our creation by Congress in 1970, we’ve made housing more accessible and affordable for homebuyers and renters in communities nationwide. We are building a better housing finance system for homebuyers, renters, lenders, investors and taxpayers.