Case-Shiller index reports 18.8% annual home price gain | Katonah Real Estate

S&P Dow Jones Indices (S&P DJI) today released the latest results for the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices, the leading measure of U.S. home prices. Data released today for November 2021 show that home prices continue to increase across the U.S. More than 27 years of history are available for the data series and can be accessed in full by going to https://www.spglobal.com/spdji/.

YEAR-OVER-YEAR
The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index, covering all nine U.S. census divisions, reported an 18.8% annual gain in November, down from 19.0% in the previous month. The 10-City Composite annual increase came in at 16.8%, down from 17.2% in the previous month. The 20- City Composite posted an 18.3% year-over-year gain, down from 18.5% in the previous month.

Phoenix, Tampa, and Miami reported the highest year-over-year gains among the 20 cities in November. Phoenix led the way with a 32.2% year-over-year price increase, followed by Tampa with a 29.0% increase and Miami with a 26.6% increase. Eleven of the 20 cities reported higher price increases in the year ending November 2021 versus the year ending October 2021.

The charts on the following page compare year-over-year returns of different housing price ranges (tiers) for Phoenix and Tampa.


MONTH-OVER-MONTH
Before seasonal adjustment, the U.S. National Index posted a 0.9% month-over-month increase in November, while the 10-City and 20-City Composites posted increases of 0.9% and 1.0%, respectively. After seasonal adjustment, the U.S. National Index posted a month-over-month increase of 1.1%, and the 10-City and 20-City Composites posted increases of 1.1% and 1.2%, respectively. In November, 19 of the 20 cities reported increases before seasonal adjustments while all 20 cities reported increases after seasonal adjustments.

ANALYSIS
“For the past several months, home prices have been rising at a very high, but decelerating, rate. That trend continued in November 2021,” says Craig J. Lazzara, Managing Director at S&P DJI. “The National Composite Index rose 18.8% from year-ago levels, and the 10- and 20-City Composites gained 16.8% and 18.3%, respectively. In all three cases, November’s gains were less than October’s.

Despite this deceleration, it’s important to remember that November’s 18.8% gain was the sixth-highest reading in the 34 years covered by our data (the top five were the months immediately preceding November).

“We continue to see very strong growth at the city level. All 20 cities saw price increases in the year ended November 2021, and prices in 19 cities are at their all-time highs. November’s price increase ranked in the top quintile of historical experience for 19 cities, and in the top decile for 16 of them.

“Phoenix’s 32.2% increase led all cities for the 30th consecutive month. Tampa (+29.0%) and Miami (+26.6%) continued in second and third place in November, narrowly edging out Las Vegas, Dallas, and San Diego. Prices were strongest in the South and Southeast (both +25.0%), but every region continued to log impressive gains.

“We have previously suggested that the strength in the U.S. housing market is being driven in part by a change in locational preferences as households react to the COVID pandemic. More data will be required to understand whether this demand surge represents an acceleration of purchases that would have occurred over the next several years or reflects a more permanent secular change. In the short term, meanwhile, we should soon begin to see the impact of increasing mortgage rates on home
prices.”

SUPPORTING DATA
The chart below depicts the annual returns of the U.S. National, 10-City Composite and 20-City Composite Home Price Indices. The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index, which covers all nine U.S. census divisions, recorded an 18.8% annual gain in November 2021.

The 10-City and 20-City Composites reported year-over-year increases of 16.8% and 18.3%, respectively.

The following chart shows the index levels for the U.S. National, 10-City and 20-City Composite Indices. As of November 2021, average home prices for the MSAs within the 10-City and 20-City Composites are exceeding their winter 2007 levels.

Table 1 below shows the housing boom/bust peaks and troughs for the three composites along with the current levels and percentage changes from the peaks and troughs.

2006 Peak 2012 Trough Current
Index Level Date Level Date
From Peak (%) Level
From Trough (%)
From Peak (%)
National 184.61 Jul-06 134.00 Feb-12 -27.4% 276.12 106.1% 49.6%
20-City 206.52 Jul-06 134.07 Mar-12 -35.1% 282.44 110.7% 36.8%
10-City 226.29 Jun-06 146.45 Mar-12 -35.3% 294.45 101.1% 30.1%

Table 2 below summarizes the results for November 2021. The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices could be revised for the prior 24 months, based on the receipt of additional source data.

November 2021 November/October October/September 1-Year
Metropolitan Area Level Change (%) Change (%) Change (%)
Atlanta 203.24 1.4% 1.3% 21.6%
Boston 281.81 0.0% 0.1% 13.5%
Charlotte 225.11 1.4% 1.5% 22.9%
Chicago 171.49 0.5% 0.5% 11.6%
Cleveland 159.84 0.6% 0.7% 14.0%
Dallas 259.12 1.2% 1.1% 25.0%
Denver 289.73 0.8% 0.2% 20.1%
Detroit 159.40 0.7% 0.2% 14.4%
Las Vegas 261.81 0.9% 1.4% 25.7%
Los Angeles 375.31 1.2% 1.4% 19.0%
Miami 337.50 2.0% 1.9% 26.6%
Minneapolis 217.95 0.3% -0.1% 11.2%
New York 251.45 1.0% 0.8% 13.8%
Phoenix 298.30 1.2% 1.1% 32.2%
Portland 309.19 0.5% 0.3% 17.4%
San Diego 367.62 1.0% 1.1% 24.4%
San Francisco 342.56 0.6% 0.0% 18.2%
Seattle 352.87 1.4% 0.6% 23.3%
Tampa 317.13 2.1% 1.9% 29.0%
Washington 283.66 0.5% 0.0% 11.1%
Composite-10 294.45 0.9% 0.8% 16.8%
Composite-20 282.44 1.0% 0.8% 18.3%
U.S. National 276.12 0.9% 0.8% 18.8%
Sources: S&P Dow Jones Indices and CoreLogic
Data through November 2021

Table 3 below shows a summary of the monthly changes using the seasonally adjusted (SA) and nonseasonally adjusted (NSA) data. Since its launch in early 2006, the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices have published, and the markets have followed and reported on, the non-seasonally adjusted data set used in the headline indices. For analytical purposes, S&P Dow Jones Indices publishes a seasonally adjusted data set covered in the headline indices, as well as for the 17 of 20 markets with tiered price
indices and the five condo markets that are tracked.

November/October Change (%) October/September Change (%)
Metropolitan Area NSA SA NSA SA
Atlanta 1.4% 1.5% 1.3% 1.4%
Boston 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.4%
Charlotte 1.4% 1.5% 1.5% 1.6%
Chicago 0.5% 1.2% 0.5% 0.9%
Cleveland 0.6% 1.2% 0.7% 1.3%
Dallas 1.2% 1.3% 1.1% 1.3%
Denver 0.8% 1.2% 0.2% 0.6%
Detroit 0.7% 1.2% 0.2% 0.9%
Las Vegas 0.9% 1.3% 1.4% 1.7%
Los Angeles 1.2% 1.4% 1.4% 1.4%
Miami 2.0% 2.0% 1.9% 1.9%
Minneapolis 0.3% 0.9% -0.1% 0.3%
New York 1.0% 0.8% 0.8% 0.5%
Phoenix 1.2% 1.4% 1.1% 1.3%
Portland 0.5% 0.9% 0.3% 1.1%
San Diego 1.0% 1.5% 1.1% 1.4%
San Francisco 0.6% 0.8% 0.0% 0.4%
Seattle 1.4% 2.1% 0.6% 1.5%
Tampa 2.1% 2.0% 1.9% 1.8%
Washington 0.5% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0%
Composite-10 0.9% 1.1% 0.8% 0.8%
Composite-20 1.0% 1.2% 0.8% 1.0%
U.S. National 0.9% 1.1% 0.8% 1.0%
Sources: S&P Dow Jones Indices and CoreLogic
Data through November 2021
For more information about S&P Dow Jones Indices, please visit https://www.spglobal.com/spdji/.