The below chart comes from Morgan Stanley’s latest Strategy Forum deck, and though it’s simple, we suspect a lot of people haven’t seen it yet, or really haven’t made the connection between the chart and other big economic stories of the day.

This is the chart that’s causing warnings from FedEx.

This is the chart that’s contributed to the collapse of the Shanghai Composite.

This is the why the Baltic Dry Index is down 60% this year.

It’s why US manufacturing indices are giving off the weakest signs of the economy.

If the US goes into a recession in the next year, this will almost certainly be why.