December 2012 home prices are expected to rise by 7.9 percent on a year-over-year basis from December 2011 and fall by 0.5 percent on a month-over-month basis from November 2012 reflecting a seasonal winter slowdown, CoreLogic said today.

Excluding distressed sales, December 2012 house prices are poised to rise 8.4 percent year-over-year from December 2011 and by 0.7 percent month-over-month from November 2012, according to the CoreLogic Pending HPI.

Home prices nationwide, including distressed sales, increased on a year-over-year basis by 7.4 percent in November 2012 compared to November 2011. This change represents the biggest increase since May 2006 and the ninth consecutive increase in home prices nationally on a year-over-year basis. On a month-over-month basis, including distressed sales, home prices increased by 0.3 percent in November 2012 compared to October 2012. The HPI analysis shows that all but six states are experiencing year-over-year price gains.

Excluding distressed sales, home prices nationwide increased on a year-over-year basis by 6.7 percent in November 2012 compared to November 2011. On a month-over-month basis excluding distressed sales, home prices increased 0.9 percent in November 2012 compared to October 2012. Distressed sales include short sales and real estate owned (REO) transactions.

“Housing was one of the past year’s biggest surprises. Even without significant gains in income, housing mounted an impressive recovery in 2012,” said CoreLogic Chief Economist Mark Fleming. “While the economy is strengthening, there is more to be done. For example, concerns remain around structural unemployment and the falling labor force participation rate.”

Highlights as of November 2012:

• Including distressed sales, the five states with the highest home price appreciation were: Arizona (+20.9 percent), Nevada (+14.2 percent), Idaho (+13.8 percent), North Dakota (+11.3 percent), California (+11.1 percent).
• Including distressed sales, the five states with the lowest home price depreciation were: Delaware (-4.9 percent), Illinois (-2.2 percent), Connecticut (-0.5 percent), New Jersey (-0.5 percent) and Rhode Island (-0.3 percent).
• Excluding distressed sales, the five states with the highest home price appreciation were: Arizona (+16.5 percent), North Dakota (+12.9 percent), Nevada (+12.6 percent), Hawaii (+11.6 percent) and Idaho (+11.6 percent).
• Excluding distressed sales, this month only two states posted home price depreciation: Delaware (-3.5 percent) and Alabama (-2.2 percent).