SHANGHAI—The average housing price in 100 major Chinese cities recorded its first sequential rise after nine straight months of decline, in a further sign that the housing market is turning a corner, though analysts say a robust rebound in prices remains unlikely.

A survey of property developers and real-estate firms showed the average price of housing in June was 8,688 yuan ($1,369) a square meter, rising 0.05% from 8,684 yuan in May, and overturning May’s 0.31% decline, data provider China Real Estate Index System said Monday.

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A man carrying a child walks past a poster advertising a new residential area in Wuhan, Hubei province.

“I believe the housing market has bottomed out,” said Nicole Wong, a property analyst from CLSA.

She also said that inventory will likely peak in the third quarter and prices will rise by a modest 5% by the fourth quarter, as demand for new launches has been strengthening in the past few months and developers don’t need to lower their prices too much to attract buyers.

On an on-year basis, the average housing price fell for a third consecutive month, sliding 1.90% from 8,856 yuan booked in June 2011, and accelerating from May’s 1.53% decline.

The survey, compiled with online real-estate brokerage SouFun Holdings Ltd., SFUN +0.06% has been widely watched since the government scrapped a national property price index in February last year.

Housing prices fell in 55 cities and rose in 45 cities in June from the previous month, the survey showed. Housing prices in Baotou city in Inner Mongolia gained by 2.6% and in Beijing they increased by 2.3%, posting the widest margins of growth.

Sales in the property market, a major economic growth engine, have picked up in some cities as the central authorities moved to ease monetary curbs in recent months, after more than two years of tightening measures. China cut interest rates in early June for the first time since 2008.

Home buyers, buoyed by expectations of further easing in property curbs and price increases, have been flooding property showrooms and purchasing secondhand homes in a number of locations, especially in the major cities.

Florrie Tang, who bought a secondhand apartment in a suburb in Shanghai last month, said she had started searching for a house since March, as prices had already declined then.

“Property is still a good hedge against inflation,” the 27-year-old Ms. Tang said. “Property prices will continue to rise, but I don’t think it will rise at the same pace as it did in the past 10 years.”

While affordability for homes has improved since the central government launched a property tightening campaign more than two years ago, housing prices are still overly expensive in major cities like Beijing, Shanghai and Guangzhou, said Fan Zhang, an economist at UOB Kayhian, adding that the government is unlikely to ease some of its curbs, especially home-purchase restrictions.

“Easing home-purchase restrictions would cause prices to rise by a wider margin and at a much faster pace, which would cause the government’s original property campaign to fail,” Mr. Zhang said.

Many local authorities have been able to tweak some housing market curbs to boost sales, but only if they benefit largely genuine owner-occupiers. Cities such as Chongqing, Wuhan and Zhengzhou have recently allowed first-time home buyers to borrow more from the local housing provident fund, while Yangzhou was permitted to offer subsidies to buyers of furbished homes.

However, Beijing has struck down certain moves by city authorities that are deemed to contravene the central government’s target of curbing speculative demand and keeping prices stable.

To maintain their political credibility, central government officials have repeatedly expressed determination to maintain the property curbs and analysts expect Beijing to quickly rein in the market should prices rise too quickly.