As the year’s peak home buying season comes to a close, key market indicators point to a shift in the dynamics of the housing market, suggesting that future home value appreciations may likely be driven by market demand, rather than inventory shortages.
An analysis of the summer home buying season ending in August shows year-over-year changes now within the single-digits for three key indicators – inventory count, median age and median list price, signaling a leveling of the market not seen for some time. The national market was virtually flat month-over-month compared to July for both inventory and median list price, and registered a slight increase in median age of inventory.
“Where we have seen significant volatility in many markets, including double-digit declines in inventory as well as increases in median price for both yearly and monthly views, we are now looking at a housing market that is less heated and moving closer to normalcy,” said Steve Berkowitz, CEO of Move.
Realtor.com® Key National Market Indicators for August 2013
August 2013 | Year-over-Year % Change | Month-over-Month % Change | |
| Number of Listings | 1,977,202 | -2.50% | 0.93% |
| Median Age of Inventory | 92 days | -8.00% | 8.24% |
| Median List Price | $199,900 | 6.39% | 0.00% |
National Highlights:
Widespread Inventory Recovery – The inventory recovery is broad and growing. The net number of listings increased even though the summer season is ending. Close to one-third of the 146 markets are within 5 percent of last year’s inventory levels, and more than two-thirds (99) of markets registered a net increase in inventory over last month.
Prices Stabilize – Despite the increase in inventories, the national median list price did not change compared to July. Absent a significant weakening in economic conditions or significantly higher rates, prices should continue to slowly rise alongside typical cost of living increases.
Price Appreciation Becoming More Widespread – In August, 123 of the 146 Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs) covered by realtor.com® registered a year-over-year increase in their median list price, with 78 markets registering an increase of 5 percent or more. Of the 18 markets reporting a list price decline, only 11 markets had a year-over-year list price decline of one percent or more, and only three markets had a list price decline of 5 percent or more. By contrast, the number of markets reporting year over year median prices lower than they were last year was 31 in July.