The surprising resilience of the country’s housing market is renewing concerns that it could be overshooting.
Housing starts, sales and prices are once again defying expectations, one year after Finance Minister Jim Flaherty shocked the market with tighter mortgage insurance rules. The sector is showing such strength this summer that some economists are wondering whether Mr. Flaherty will go further in a bid to stem rising house prices and consumer debt levels.
A for sale sign is seen on the lawn of a Toronto home. The Canadian Real Estate Association says home sales were down in June from year-earlier levels, but higher compared with the previous month.
“There may be some dusting off of potential measures to cool housing,” Bank of Montreal economist Douglas Porter wrote in a research note. He thinks the market could be on the verge of running away again.
Both Mr. Flaherty and economists will have a better sense of where things stand on Thursday, when the Canadian Real Estate Association releases July’s sales figures. Mr. Porter thinks the data will show that the number of existing homes changing hands is 10 per cent higher than this time last year, which would mean that they are “within striking distance of the record highs hit in 2007.”
July data from some local real estate boards appear to back that assumption. Vancouver, for instance, saw a whopping 40.4-per-cent year-over-year increase in sales of existing homes over the Multiple Listing Service, while Toronto posted a still-impressive 16-per-cent gain. Calgary’s sales were up 17 per cent from last year. (Not all markets are showing gains. Ottawa and Montreal each saw sales fall by about 2 per cent year over year).
Toronto-Dominion Bank economist Diana Petramala says sales have now recovered from the changes that Mr. Flaherty made to the mortgage insurance rules. “In Vancouver, sales have recovered to their highest level since 2010,” she notes.
In addition to the changes that Ottawa made to the rules for consumers, such as cutting the maximum length of an insured mortgage to 25 years and doing away with mortgage insurance for homes worth more than $1-million, Mr. Flaherty has been taking steps to curtail the degree to which Canada Housing and Mortgage Corp., and therefore taxpayers, backstop the banks’ activities. He has been worried that ultralow mortgage rates are adding too much fuel to the housing fire.
Canada’s housing market still running hot – The Globe and Mail.