Robert is a realtor in Bedford NY. He has been successfully working with buyers and sellers for years. His local area of expertise includes Bedford, Pound Ridge, Armonk, Lewisboro, Chappaqua and Katonah. When you have a local real estate question please call 914-325-5758.
WHITE PLAINS—Residential sales in the first quarter of 2022 in the counties served by OneKey MLS, LLC were down from the historic peaks of 2021, but still posted strong results when compared with 2019 and 2020. The one county served by OneKey MLS that posted stronger numbers in 2022 compared to 2021 was Bronx County which was up 6.1% with 613 residential sales posted in the first quarter.
Residential sales, which include single-family homes, condominiums, co-operatives and 2-4 family multi-family homes, decreased 6.3% in Westchester County, a 28.1% decrease in Putnam County, a 11.6% decrease in Rockland County, a 14.7% decrease in Orange County, and a 19.8% decrease in Sullivan County. One bright spot when comparing 2022 sales to 2021 sales was the condominium market in Westchester County, which saw a 27.8% increase in the number of transactions.
While these overall decreases may seem significant at first glance, the significance is diminished when viewed over a two-year period. When comparing the 2022 first quarter residential sales numbers to the first quarter of 2020, the sales numbers in Westchester County increased 26.9%, Putnam County increased 16.7%, Rockland County increased 21.2%, Orange County increased 31.7%, Sullivan County increased 30.5% and Bronx County increased 42.2%.
In all areas served by OneKey MLS, single-family median sales prices continued to rise, with a modest increase of 2.7% in Westchester County, a 21.8% increase in Putnam County, a 14.9% increase in Rockland County, a 10.3% increase in Orange County, a 20.3% increase in Sullivan County and an 11% increase in Bronx County.
For the first quarter of 2022, the average median sales price for single-family homes in Westchester County was $729,000, the average median sales price in Putnam County was $475,038, the average median sales price for Rockland County was $600,000, the average median sales price in Orange County was $375,000, the average median sales price in Sullivan County was $267,000, and the average median sales price for single family homes in Bronx County was $600,000 for the first quarter of 2022.
It has been apparent for some time that affordability issues are becoming critical in many parts of OneKey’s geography. In 2019, the average median sales price for a single-family home in Westchester County was $600,000, compared with $729,000 for the first quarter of 2022, a 21.5% increase over a three-year period. The fact that the Westchester median sales price increase was the smallest compared to the other OneKey counties at 2.7% YOY may be a sign of sales prices beginning to stabilize and moderate.
A dearth of inventory continues to plague the market in all parts of OneKey’s footprint, and days on market continue to decline. The market is also facing the dual headwinds of rising interest rates and increasing inflation. However, the market continues to exhibit strength in spite of these headwinds as the economy in the Hudson Valley, greater New York City and suburban area continues to rebound from the pandemic. All in all, 2022 is off to a solid start, the OneKey MLS report states. Click Here to read the full report.
The CoreLogic Home Price Insights report features an interactive view of our Home Price Index product with analysis through February 2022 and forecasts through February 2023.
CoreLogic HPI™ is designed to provide an early indication of home price trends. The indexes are fully revised with each release and employ techniques to signal turning points sooner. CoreLogic HPI Forecasts™ (with a 30-year forecast horizon), project CoreLogic HPI levels for two tiers—Single-Family Combined (both Attached and Detached) and Single-Family Combined excluding distressed sales.
The report is published monthly with coverage at the national, state and Core Based Statistical Area (CBSA)/Metro level and includes home price indices (including distressed sale); home price forecast and market condition indicators. The data incorporates more than 40 years of repeat-sales transactions for analyzing home price trends.
HPI National Change
February 2022 National Home Prices
Home prices nationwide, including distressed sales, increased year over year by 20% in February 2022 compared with February 2021. On a month-over-month basis, home prices increased by 2.2% in February 2022 compared with January 2022 (revisions with public records data are standard, and to ensure accuracy, CoreLogic incorporates the newly released public data to provide updated results).
Forecast Prices Nationally
The CoreLogic HPI Forecast indicates that home prices will increase on a month-over-month basis by 0.6% from February 2022 to March 2022 and on a year-over-year basis by 5% from February 2022 to February 2023.
HPI & Case-Shiller Trends
This graph shows a comparison of the national year-over-year percent change for the CoreLogic HPI and CoreLogic Case-Shiller Index from 2000 to present month with forecasts one year into the future. We note that both the CoreLogic HPI Single Family Combined tier and the CoreLogic Case-Shiller Index are posting positive, but moderating year-over-year percent changes, and forecasting gains for the next year.
Economic Impact on Home Prices
U.S. home price growth registered a year-over-year increase of 20% in February, another series high and marking 12 months of consecutive double-digit gains. Annual price growth has been recorded every month for the past decade. While prospective buyers outnumber sellers, a record-low number of homes for sale remains the primary culprit for the rapid price gains. The CoreLogic HPI Forecast shows national year-over-year appreciation slowing to 5% by February 2023, as rising interest rates are expected to sideline even more buyers.
“New listings have not kept up with the large number of families looking to buy, leading to homes selling quickly and often above list price. This imbalance between an insufficient number of owners looking to sell relative to buyers searching for a home has led to the record appreciation of the past 12 months. Higher prices and mortgage rates erode buyer affordability and should dampen demand in coming months, leading to the moderation in price growth in our forecast.”
– Dr. Frank Nothaft Chief Economist for CoreLogic
HPI National and State Maps – February 2022
The CoreLogic HPI provides measures for multiple market segments, referred to as tiers, based on property type, price, time between sales, loan type (conforming vs. non-conforming) and distressed sales. Broad national coverage is available from the national level down to ZIP Code, including non-disclosure states.
Nationally, home prices increased 20% year over year in February. No states posted an annual decline in home prices. The states with the highest increases year-over-year were Florida (29.1%), Arizona (28.6%) and Nevada (25.8%).
HPI Top 10 Metros Change
The CoreLogic HPI provides measures for multiple market segments, referred to as tiers, based on property type, price, time between sales, loan type (conforming vs. non-conforming) and distressed sales. Broad national coverage is available from the national level down to ZIP Code, including non-disclosure states.
These large cities continued to experience price increases in February, with Phoenix on top at 30.4% year over year.
Markets to Watch: Top Markets at Risk of Home Price Decline
The CoreLogic Market Risk Indicator (MRI), a monthly update of the overall health of housing markets across the country, predicts that Lake Havasu-Kingman, Arizona is at a high risk (50-70% probability) of a decline in home prices over the next 12 months. Prescott, Arizona is also at high risk (50-70%), while Bridgeport-Stamford-Norwalk, Connecticut; Hartford, Connecticut; and Urban Honolulu, Hawaii, are at a moderate risk (25-50%) of a decline.
Summary
CoreLogic HPI features deep, broad coverage, including non-disclosure state data. The index is built from industry-leading real-estate public record, servicing, and securities databases—including more than 40 years of repeat-sales transaction data—and all undergo strict pre-boarding assessment and normalization processes.
CoreLogic HPI and HPI Forecasts both provide multi-tier market evaluations based on price, time between sales, property type, loan type (conforming vs. non-conforming) and distressed sales, helping clients hone in on price movements in specific market segments.
Updated monthly, the index is the fastest home-price valuation information in the industry—complete home-price index datasets five weeks after month’s end. The Index is completely refreshed each month—all pricing history from 1976 to the current month—to provide the most up-to-date, accurate indication of home-price movements available.
Methodology
The CoreLogic HPI™is built on industry-leading public record, servicing and securities real-estate databases and incorporates more than 40 years of repeat-sales transactions for analyzing home price trends. Generally released on the first Tuesday of each month with an average five-week lag, the CoreLogic HPI is designed to provide an early indication of home price trends by market segment and for the “Single-Family Combined” tier, representing the most comprehensive set of properties, including all sales for single-family attached and single-family detached properties. The indices are fully revised with each release and employ techniques to signal turning points sooner. The CoreLogic HPI provides measures for multiple market segments, referred to as tiers, based on property type, price, time between sales, loan type (conforming vs. non-conforming) and distressed sales. Broad national coverage is available from the national level down to ZIP Code, including non-disclosure states.
CoreLogic HPI Forecasts™are based on a two-stage, error-correction econometric model that combines the equilibrium home price—as a function of real disposable income per capita—with short-run fluctuations caused by market momentum, mean-reversion, and exogenous economic shocks like changes in the unemployment rate. With a 30-year forecast horizon, CoreLogic HPI Forecasts project CoreLogic HPI levels for two tiers — “Single-Family Combined” (both attached and detached) and “Single-Family Combined Excluding Distressed Sales.” As a companion to the CoreLogic HPI Forecasts, Stress-Testing Scenarios align with Comprehensive Capital Analysis and Review (CCAR) national scenarios to project five years of home prices under baseline, adverse and severely adverse scenarios at state, metropolitan areas and ZIP Code levels. The forecast accuracy represents a 95% statistical confidence interval with a +/- 2% margin of error for the index.
About Market Risk Indicator
Market Risk Indicators are a subscription-based analytics solution that provide monthly updates on the overall “health” of housing markets across the country. CoreLogic data scientists combine world-class analytics with detailed economic and housing data to help determine the likelihood of a housing bubble burst in 392 major metros and all 50 states. Market Risk Indicators is a multi-phase regression model that provides a probability score (from 1 to 100) on the likelihood of two scenarios per metro: a >10% price reduction and a ≤ 10% price reduction. The higher the score, the higher the risk of a price reduction.
Source: CoreLogic The data provided are for use only by the primary recipient or the primary recipient’s publication or broadcast. This data may not be resold, republished or licensed to any other source, including publications and sources owned by the primary recipient’s parent company without prior written permission from CoreLogic. Any CoreLogic data used for publication or broadcast, in whole or in part, must be sourced as coming from CoreLogic, a data and analytics company. For use with broadcast or web content, the citation must directly accompany first reference of the data. If the data are illustrated with maps, charts, graphs or other visual elements, the CoreLogic logo must be included on screen or website.
For questions, analysis or interpretation of the data, contact Robin Wachner at newsmedia@corelogic.com. Data provided may not be modified without the prior written permission of CoreLogic. Do not use the data in any unlawful manner. The data are compiled from public records, contributory databases and proprietary analytics, and its accuracy is dependent upon these sources.
Illustrated Report Highlights
As a courtesy you can download the national historic HPI data here. (Note: this link is a national historical trend report and not the current month CoreLogic Home Price Insights report).
About CoreLogic
CoreLogic is a leading global property information, analytics and data-enabled solutions provider. The company’s combined data from public, contributory and proprietary sources includes over 4.5 billion records spanning more than 50 years, providing detailed coverage of property, mortgages and other encumbrances, consumer credit, tenancy, location, hazard risk and related performance information. The markets CoreLogic serves include real estate and mortgage finance, insurance, capital markets, and the public sector. CoreLogic delivers value to clients through unique data, analytics, wo
The CoreLogic Home Price Insights report features an interactive view of our Home Price Index product with analysis through February 2022 and forecasts through February 2023.
CoreLogic HPI™ is designed to provide an early indication of home price trends. The indexes are fully revised with each release and employ techniques to signal turning points sooner. CoreLogic HPI Forecasts™ (with a 30-year forecast horizon), project CoreLogic HPI levels for two tiers—Single-Family Combined (both Attached and Detached) and Single-Family Combined excluding distressed sales.
The report is published monthly with coverage at the national, state and Core Based Statistical Area (CBSA)/Metro level and includes home price indices (including distressed sale); home price forecast and market condition indicators. The data incorporates more than 40 years of repeat-sales transactions for analyzing home price trends.
HPI National Change
February 2022 National Home Prices
Home prices nationwide, including distressed sales, increased year over year by 20% in February 2022 compared with February 2021. On a month-over-month basis, home prices increased by 2.2% in February 2022 compared with January 2022 (revisions with public records data are standard, and to ensure accuracy, CoreLogic incorporates the newly released public data to provide updated results).
Forecast Prices Nationally
The CoreLogic HPI Forecast indicates that home prices will increase on a month-over-month basis by 0.6% from February 2022 to March 2022 and on a year-over-year basis by 5% from February 2022 to February 2023.
HPI & Case-Shiller Trends
This graph shows a comparison of the national year-over-year percent change for the CoreLogic HPI and CoreLogic Case-Shiller Index from 2000 to present month with forecasts one year into the future. We note that both the CoreLogic HPI Single Family Combined tier and the CoreLogic Case-Shiller Index are posting positive, but moderating year-over-year percent changes, and forecasting gains for the next year.
Economic Impact on Home Prices
U.S. home price growth registered a year-over-year increase of 20% in February, another series high and marking 12 months of consecutive double-digit gains. Annual price growth has been recorded every month for the past decade. While prospective buyers outnumber sellers, a record-low number of homes for sale remains the primary culprit for the rapid price gains. The CoreLogic HPI Forecast shows national year-over-year appreciation slowing to 5% by February 2023, as rising interest rates are expected to sideline even more buyers.
“New listings have not kept up with the large number of families looking to buy, leading to homes selling quickly and often above list price. This imbalance between an insufficient number of owners looking to sell relative to buyers searching for a home has led to the record appreciation of the past 12 months. Higher prices and mortgage rates erode buyer affordability and should dampen demand in coming months, leading to the moderation in price growth in our forecast.”
– Dr. Frank Nothaft Chief Economist for CoreLogic
HPI National and State Maps – February 2022
The CoreLogic HPI provides measures for multiple market segments, referred to as tiers, based on property type, price, time between sales, loan type (conforming vs. non-conforming) and distressed sales. Broad national coverage is available from the national level down to ZIP Code, including non-disclosure states.
Nationally, home prices increased 20% year over year in February. No states posted an annual decline in home prices. The states with the highest increases year-over-year were Florida (29.1%), Arizona (28.6%) and Nevada (25.8%).
HPI Top 10 Metros Change
The CoreLogic HPI provides measures for multiple market segments, referred to as tiers, based on property type, price, time between sales, loan type (conforming vs. non-conforming) and distressed sales. Broad national coverage is available from the national level down to ZIP Code, including non-disclosure states.
These large cities continued to experience price increases in February, with Phoenix on top at 30.4% year over year.
Markets to Watch: Top Markets at Risk of Home Price Decline
The CoreLogic Market Risk Indicator (MRI), a monthly update of the overall health of housing markets across the country, predicts that Lake Havasu-Kingman, Arizona is at a high risk (50-70% probability) of a decline in home prices over the next 12 months. Prescott, Arizona is also at high risk (50-70%), while Bridgeport-Stamford-Norwalk, Connecticut; Hartford, Connecticut; and Urban Honolulu, Hawaii, are at a moderate risk (25-50%) of a decline.
Summary
CoreLogic HPI features deep, broad coverage, including non-disclosure state data. The index is built from industry-leading real-estate public record, servicing, and securities databases—including more than 40 years of repeat-sales transaction data—and all undergo strict pre-boarding assessment and normalization processes.
CoreLogic HPI and HPI Forecasts both provide multi-tier market evaluations based on price, time between sales, property type, loan type (conforming vs. non-conforming) and distressed sales, helping clients hone in on price movements in specific market segments.
Updated monthly, the index is the fastest home-price valuation information in the industry—complete home-price index datasets five weeks after month’s end. The Index is completely refreshed each month—all pricing history from 1976 to the current month—to provide the most up-to-date, accurate indication of home-price movements available.
Methodology
The CoreLogic HPI™is built on industry-leading public record, servicing and securities real-estate databases and incorporates more than 40 years of repeat-sales transactions for analyzing home price trends. Generally released on the first Tuesday of each month with an average five-week lag, the CoreLogic HPI is designed to provide an early indication of home price trends by market segment and for the “Single-Family Combined” tier, representing the most comprehensive set of properties, including all sales for single-family attached and single-family detached properties. The indices are fully revised with each release and employ techniques to signal turning points sooner. The CoreLogic HPI provides measures for multiple market segments, referred to as tiers, based on property type, price, time between sales, loan type (conforming vs. non-conforming) and distressed sales. Broad national coverage is available from the national level down to ZIP Code, including non-disclosure states.
CoreLogic HPI Forecasts™are based on a two-stage, error-correction econometric model that combines the equilibrium home price—as a function of real disposable income per capita—with short-run fluctuations caused by market momentum, mean-reversion, and exogenous economic shocks like changes in the unemployment rate. With a 30-year forecast horizon, CoreLogic HPI Forecasts project CoreLogic HPI levels for two tiers — “Single-Family Combined” (both attached and detached) and “Single-Family Combined Excluding Distressed Sales.” As a companion to the CoreLogic HPI Forecasts, Stress-Testing Scenarios align with Comprehensive Capital Analysis and Review (CCAR) national scenarios to project five years of home prices under baseline, adverse and severely adverse scenarios at state, metropolitan areas and ZIP Code levels. The forecast accuracy represents a 95% statistical confidence interval with a +/- 2% margin of error for the index.
About Market Risk Indicator
Market Risk Indicators are a subscription-based analytics solution that provide monthly updates on the overall “health” of housing markets across the country. CoreLogic data scientists combine world-class analytics with detailed economic and housing data to help determine the likelihood of a housing bubble burst in 392 major metros and all 50 states. Market Risk Indicators is a multi-phase regression model that provides a probability score (from 1 to 100) on the likelihood of two scenarios per metro: a >10% price reduction and a ≤ 10% price reduction. The higher the score, the higher the risk of a price reduction.
Source: CoreLogic The data provided are for use only by the primary recipient or the primary recipient’s publication or broadcast. This data may not be resold, republished or licensed to any other source, including publications and sources owned by the primary recipient’s parent company without prior written permission from CoreLogic. Any CoreLogic data used for publication or broadcast, in whole or in part, must be sourced as coming from CoreLogic, a data and analytics company. For use with broadcast or web content, the citation must directly accompany first reference of the data. If the data are illustrated with maps, charts, graphs or other visual elements, the CoreLogic logo must be included on screen or website.
For questions, analysis or interpretation of the data, contact Robin Wachner at newsmedia@corelogic.com. Data provided may not be modified without the prior written permission of CoreLogic. Do not use the data in any unlawful manner. The data are compiled from public records, contributory databases and proprietary analytics, and its accuracy is dependent upon these sources.
Illustrated Report Highlights
As a courtesy you can download the national historic HPI data here. (Note: this link is a national historical trend report and not the current month CoreLogic Home Price Insights report).
About CoreLogic
CoreLogic is a leading global property information, analytics and data-enabled solutions provider. The company’s combined data from public, contributory and proprietary sources includes over 4.5 billion records spanning more than 50 years, providing detailed coverage of property, mortgages and other encumbrances, consumer credit, tenancy, location, hazard risk and related performance information. The markets CoreLogic serves include real estate and mortgage finance, insurance, capital markets, and the public sector. CoreLogic delivers value to clients through unique data, analytics, wo rkflow technology, advisory and managed services. Clients rely on CoreLogic to help identify and manage growth opportunities, improve performance and mitigate risk. Headquartered in Irvine, Calif., CoreLogic operates in North America, Western Europe and Asia Pacific. For more information, please visit www.corelogic.com.
rkflow technology, advisory and managed services. Clients rely on CoreLogic to help identify and manage growth opportunities, improve performance and mitigate risk. Headquartered in Irvine, Calif., CoreLogic operates in North America, Western Europe and Asia Pacific. For more information, please visit www.corelogic.com.
Freddie Mac (OTCQB: FMCC) today released the results of its Primary Mortgage Market Survey® (PMMS®), showing that the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage (FRM) averaged 4.67 percent.
“Mortgage rates continued moving upward in the face of rapidly rising inflation as well as the prospect of strong demand for goods and ongoing supply disruptions,” said Sam Khater, Freddie Mac’s Chief Economist. “Purchase demand has weakened modestly but has continued to outpace expectations. This is largely due to unmet demand from first-time homebuyers as well as a select few who had been waiting for rates to hit a cyclical low.”
News Facts
30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 4.67 percent with an average 0.8 point for the week ending March 31, 2022, up from last week when it averaged 4.42 percent. A year ago at this time, the 30-year FRM averaged 3.18 percent.
15-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 3.83 percent with an average 0.8 point, up from last week when it averaged 3.63 percent. A year ago at this time, the 15-year FRM averaged 2.45 percent.
5-year Treasury-indexed hybrid adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) averaged 3.50 percent with an average 0.3 point, up from last week when it averaged 3.36 percent. A year ago at this time, the 5-year ARM averaged 2.84 percent.
The PMMS® is focused on conventional, conforming, fully amortizing home purchase loans for borrowers who put 20 percent down and have excellent credit. Average commitment rates should be reported along with average fees and points to reflect the total upfront cost of obtaining the mortgage. Visit the following link for the Definitions. Borrowers may still pay closing costs which are not included in the survey.
The MBA Mortgage Application Index declined 8.1% last week, following the prior week’s decrease of 1.2%. The downward move came as a 14.4% drop in the Refinance Index was accompanied by a 1.5% fall for the Purchase Index. The average 30-year mortgage rate extended its climb, jumping 23 basis points (bps) to 4.50%, and is up 114 bps versus a year ago.
In other housing news, new home sales (chart) fell 2.0% month-over-month (m/m) in February to an annual rate of 772,000 units, shy of the Bloomberg consensus forecast calling for a rate of 810,000 units, and below January’s downwardly-revised 788,000-unit level. The median home price rose 10.7% y/y to $400,600. New home inventory rose to 6.3 months from January’s level of a 6.1-months supply at the current sales pace. Sales jumped m/m in the Northeast, and were higher in the Midwest, while lower in the South and West. Sales in all regions were lower y/y, except for the Northeast which gained ground. New home sales are based on contract signings, offering a timelier read on housing activity compared to the larger contributor of existing home sales, which are based on closings
Freddie Mac (OTCQB: FMCC) today released the results of its Primary Mortgage Market Survey® (PMMS®), showing that the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage (FRM) averaged 4.16 percent.
“The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage exceeded four percent for the first time since May of 2019,” said Sam Khater, Freddie Mac’s Chief Economist. “The Federal Reserve raising short-term rates and signaling further increases means mortgage rates should continue to rise over the course of the year. While home purchase demand has moderated, it remains competitive due to low existing inventory, suggesting high house price pressures will continue during the spring homebuying season.”
News Facts
30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 4.16 percent with an average 0.8 point for the week ending March 17, 2022, up from last week when it averaged 3.85 percent. A year ago at this time, the 30-year FRM averaged 3.09 percent.
15-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 3.39 percent with an average 0.8 point, up from last week when it averaged 3.09 percent. A year ago at this time, the 15-year FRM averaged 2.40 percent.
5-year Treasury-indexed hybrid adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) averaged 3.19 percent with an average 0.2 point, up from last week when it averaged 2.97 percent. A year ago at this time, the 5-year ARM averaged 2.79 percent.
The PMMS® is focused on conventional, conforming, fully amortizing home purchase loans for borrowers who put 20 percent down and have excellent credit. Average commitment rates should be reported along with average fees and points to reflect the total upfront cost of obtaining the mortgage. Visit the following link for the Definitions. Borrowers may still pay closing costs which are not included in the survey.
After posting double digit month-over-month increases in November and December, new home sales dropped in January, decreasing 4.5% from the month prior to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 801,000, according to data released by the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development and the U.S. Census Bureau on Thursday. Year over year, the sale of new homes was down 19.3% in January.
“The only-modest setback in new home sales reinforced the fact that both home shoppers and home builders continue to stand firm amid a slew of challenges,” Zillow economist Matthew Speakman said in a statement. “With the wind blowing against them, builders navigated significant supply chain and labor disruptions, including a very difficult past two months thanks to a wave of Covid infections sweeping the nation and contributing to lost man hours. And while pandemic-related pressures appear to be easing in other parts of the economy, the shortage of key building materials – notably windows and wood products – persists. But these headwinds cannot be ignored and builders are still falling short of potential — last month’s figure was 19.3% below January 2021, which represented a post-Great Recession record high.”
At the end of January, an estimated 406,000 new homes were still for sale, which at the current sales rate represents a 6.1 month supply. With the supply of existing homes for sale hitting record lows and the various labor and material shortages hitting the homebuilding industry, this relatively high level of supply of new homes is giving housing economists reason to be cautiously optimistic for new home sales this spring.
“With home prices rising at unprecedented rates, and existing home inventory now at the lowest levels on record — and demand expected to remain strong – prospective buyers are eagerly waiting for new homes to come onto the market even if it means having to wait for months, or even years, before construction is complete,” Speakman said in a statement. “Just 10% of new homes available for sale in January were fully built, slightly more than lows reached in the fall but still well below historic norms.”
Affordability remains a problem, however, with the median homes sales price for new homes rising to $423,300 in January from $377,000 in December.
“One year ago, 29% of new-home sales were priced below $300,000,” First American deputy chief economist Odeta Kushi said in a statement. “In January of this year, only 9% of new-home sales were priced below $300,000. Rising mortgage rates further worsen affordability.”
However, Kushi notes that the escalating Russia-Ukraine conflict may impact how quickly and how much mortgage rates rise.
Regionally, new home sales fell in three out of the four national regions. In the Northeast, new home sales were down 10.7%, while the Midwest and South saw 3.7% and 7.4% drops, respectively. The West was the only region that saw a rise in new home sales, with an increase of 1.2%.
Mortgage applications decreased 13.1 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending February 18, 2022.
The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 13.1 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 11 percent compared with the previous week. The Refinance Index decreased 16 percent from the previous week and was 56 percent lower than the same week one year ago. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 10 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index decreased 6 percent compared with the previous week and was 6 percent lower than the same week one year ago.
“Mortgage applications dropped to their lowest level since December 2019 last week, as mortgage rates continued to inch higher. The 30-year fixed rate was 4.06 percent, almost a full percentage point higher than a year ago. Higher mortgage rates have quickly shut off refinances, with activity down in six of the first seven weeks of 2022. Conventional refinances in particular saw a 17 percent decrease last week,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s Associate Vice President of Economic and Industry Forecasting. “Purchase applications, already constrained by elevated sales prices and tight inventory, have also been impacted by these higher rates and declined for the third straight week. While the average loan size did not increase this week, it remained close to the survey’s record high.”
The refinance share of mortgage activity decreased to 50.1 percent of total applications from 52.8 percent the previous week. The adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) share of activity increased to 5.1 percent of total applications.
The FHA share of total applications increased to 8.7 percent from 8.3 percent the week prior. The VA share of total applications increased to 9.9 percent from 9.3 percent the week prior. The USDA share of total applications remained unchanged at 0.4 percent from the week prior.
The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($647,200 or less) increased to 4.06 percent from 4.05 percent, with points increasing to 0.48 from 0.45 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value ratio (LTV) loans. The effective rate increased from last week.
The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with jumbo loan balances (greater than $647,200) increased to 3.84 percent from 3.81 percent, with points increasing to 0.45 from 0.39 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent LTV loans. The effective rate increased from last week.
The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages backed by the FHA increased to 4.09 percent from 4.01 percent, with points decreasing to 0.56 from 0.59 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent LTV loans. The effective rate increased from last week.
The average contract interest rate for 15-year fixed-rate mortgages increased to 3.42 percent from 3.37 percent, with points decreasing to 0.45 from 0.50 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent LTV loans. The effective rate increased from last week.
The average contract interest rate for 5/1 ARMs decreased to 3.26 percent from 3.36 percent, with points decreasing to 0.34 from 0.48 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent LTV loans. The effective rate decreased from last week.
National home prices grew at an unsustainable pace in December, supported by strong demand and record-low inventory. Home price appreciation is expected to slow in the coming quarters as rising mortgage rates price some homebuyers out of the market.
The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index, reported by S&P Dow Jones Indices, rose at a seasonally adjusted annual growth rate of 16.9% in December, following a 15.1% increase in November. National home prices are now 51.8% higher than their last peak during the housing boom in 2006. On a year-over-year basis, the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index posted an 18.8% annual gain in December, the same increase as in November. Home price appreciation (YOY) has slowed since September 2021.
Meanwhile, the Home Price Index, released by the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA), increased at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 15.6% in December, following a 15.3% increase in November. On a year-over-year basis, the FHFA Home Price NSA Index rose by 17.7% in December, the same gain as in November.
In addition to tracking national home price changes, S&P CoreLogic reported home price indexes across 20 metro areas in December. All 20 metro areas reported positive home price appreciation and their annual growth rates ranged from 8.6% to 34.4%. Among all 20 metro areas, thirteen metro areas exceeded the national average of 16.9%. San Diego led the way with a 34.4% increase, followed by Seattle with a 27.1% increase and Dallas with a 26.8% increase.
The scatter plot below lists the 20 major U.S. metropolitan areas’ annual growth rates in November and in December. The X-axis presents the annual growth rates in November; the Y-axis presents the annual growth rates in December. Five out of the 20 metro areas had a deceleration in home price growth, including Los Angeles, Miami, Tampa, Las Vegas, and Seattle.
Freddie Mac (OTCQB: FMCC) today released the results of its Primary Mortgage Market Survey® (PMMS®), showing that the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage (FRM) averaged 3.92 percent.
“Mortgage rates jumped again due to high inflation and stronger than expected consumer spending,” said Sam Khater, Freddie Mac’s Chief Economist. “The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage is nearing four percent, reaching highs we have not seen since May 2019. As rates and house prices rise, affordability has become a substantial hurdle for potential homebuyers, especially as inflation threatens to place a strain on consumer budgets.”
News Facts
30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 3.92 percent with an average 0.8 point for the week ending February 17, 2022, up from last week when it averaged 3.69 percent. A year ago at this time, the 30-year FRM averaged 2.81 percent.
15-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 3.15 percent with an average 0.8 point, up from last week when it averaged 2.93 percent. A year ago at this time, the 15-year FRM averaged 2.21 percent.
5-year Treasury-indexed hybrid adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) averaged 2.98 percent with an average 0.3 point, up from last week when it averaged 2.80 percent. A year ago at this time, the 5-year ARM averaged 2.77 percent.
The PMMS® is focused on conventional, conforming, fully amortizing home purchase loans for borrowers who put 20 percent down and have excellent credit. Average commitment rates should be reported along with average fees and points to reflect the total upfront cost of obtaining the mortgage. Visit the following link for the Definitions. Borrowers may still pay closing costs which are not included in the survey.
Freddie Mac makes home possible for millions of families and individuals by providing mortgage capital to lenders. Since our creation by Congress in 1970, we’ve made housing more accessible and affordable for homebuyers and renters in communities nationwide. We are building a better housing finance system for homebuyers, renters, lenders, investors and taxpayers. Learn more at FreddieMac.com, Twitter @FreddieMac and Freddie Mac’s blog FreddieMac.com/blog.
Con Edison has asked the state for permission to raise gas and electric prices next year, citing the need to cover costs including system upgrades and renewable energy investments.
The utility company hopes to hike electric and gas bills by 11.2% and 18.2%, respectively, it said in a statement provided to NY1. That increase would amount to around $1.2 billion more in electric revenue and $500 million in gas revenue, the company said.
The price hikes would “vary by customer class,” the company said in a press release, noting in a separate document that its customer classes include residential units and commercial properties.
Con Edison said the hikes are needed so it can upgrade its gas and electric delivery systems. The company is also planning to invest more in renewable energy, including electric vehicles and clean heat.
In addition, the company would put some of the revenue toward moving “vulnerable overhead electric cables and other equipment” below ground to prevent storm-related outages, with a focus on “disadvantaged communities,” the release said.
“Con Edison is in a unique position to lead the transition to a clean energy future with better public health, a vibrant economy and more equality of opportunity for all,” Con Edison President Matthew Ketschke said in a statement. “That’s why we want to dramatically increase our energy efficiency incentives, make electric vehicle charging more convenient, and encourage heat pumps as an alternative to gas heating.”
The proposal is “designed to fund the investments necessary for a safe and reliable clean energy future… and our operating expenses, like local property taxes,” the company’s statement added.
In January 2020, the State Public Service Commission voted to allow Con Edison to raise electric prices by 13.5% and gas prices by 25%, in yearly increments, by this year.
