Monthly Archives: July 2020

New home sales surge 12% | South Salem Real Estate

Sales of new U.S. single-family homes increased more than expected in May and business activity contracted moderately this month, suggesting the economy was on the cusp of recovering from the recession caused by the COVID-19 crisis.

But a resurgence in confirmed coronavirus cases across the country threatens the nascent signs of improvement evident in Tuesday’s economic data. Many states have reported record daily increases in COVID-19 infections, which health experts have blamed on local governments reopening their economies too soon. The economy has stabilized as businesses reopened after closing in mid-March to control the spread of the respiratory illness.

“The renewed upsurge in COVID-19 cases across the South and the West poses a clear downside risk over the coming months but, with a second wave of state-wide lockdowns appearing unlikely for now, we are assuming this will act as a modest drag on the economic recovery, rather than resulting in a renewed downturn,” said Andrew Hunter, senior U.S. economist at Capital Economics.

New home sales jumped 16.6% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 676,000 units last month, the Commerce Department said. New home sales are counted at the signing of a contract, making them a leading housing market indicator. Last month’s increase left sales just shy of their pre-COVID-19 level.

Sales dropped 5.2% in April to a pace of 580,000 units. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast new home sales, which account for about 14.7% of housing market sales, rising 2.9% to a pace of 640,000 in May.

New home sales are drawn from building permits. Sales surged 12.7% from a year ago in May. The report followed on the heels of data last week showing home purchase applications at an 11-year high in mid-June and permits rebounding strongly in May.

The broader economy slipped into recession in February, leaving nearly 20 million people unemployed as of May.

In a separate report on Tuesday, data firm IHS Markit said its flash U.S. Composite Output Index, which tracks the manufacturing and services sectors, rose to a reading of 46.8 in June from 37 in May. A reading below 50 indicates contraction in private sector output.

The improvement was led by an ebb in the manufacturing sector downturn, with the flash Purchasing Managers Index climbing to 49.6 from 39.8 in May. The survey’s services sector flash PMI rose to 46.7 from 37.5 in May.

Activity is also picking up around the globe. The IHS Markit’s euro zone Flash Composite Purchasing Managers’ Index recovered to 47.5 from May’s 31.9.

Stocks on Wall Street extended gains on the data and hopes of more fiscal stimulus. The dollar fell against a basket of currencies. U.S. Treasury prices were lower.

UNEMPLOYMENT HURDLE

The market for new homes is being supported by historic low interest rates and a preference among buyers for single-family homes away from city centers as companies allow employees more flexibility to work from home amid the coronavirus crisis.

But with record unemployment and companies freezing hiring to deal with weak demand and keep costs under control, a sharp rebound in the housing market is unlikely.

“If the overall economy seems to be slowing, the public may not be quite as confident about putting a down payment on an expensive new home,” said Chris Rupkey, chief economist at MUFG in New York. “Many businesses are insolvent and there will be less spending from unemployed Americans as well that could keep this economic recovery in the slow lane for some time.”

Last month’s increase in new home sales did little to offset a plunge in sales of existing homes in April and May, leaving intact economists’ expectations for a record tumble in residential investment in the second quarter. Homebuilding also rebounded moderately in May after slumping in April.

Last month, new home sales shot up 45.5% in the Northeast and advanced 29% in the West. They rose 15.2% in the South, which accounts for the bulk of transactions, but fell 6.4% in the Midwest.

The median new house price rose 1.7% to $317,900 in May from a year ago. New home sales last month were concentrated in the $200,000 to $400,000 price range.

New homes priced below $200,000, the most sought after, accounted for about 15% of sales.

There were 318,000 new homes on the market in May, down from 325,000 in April. At May’s sales pace it would take 5.6 months to clear the supply of houses on the market, down from 6.7 months in April. Nearly two-thirds of the homes sold last month were either under construction or yet to be built.

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reuters.com/article/us

NY housing courts reopen | Waccabuc Real Estate

“I feel like I’m on the edge of a cliff, and I’m just waiting for a push to send me over.”

Daniella Vega has called every tenant hotline she could find, but she still doesn’t know if she’s on the cusp of being evicted. The 27-year-old artist shared a three-bedroom apartment with in Bushwick with two roommates, but they both moved out due to the pandemic, saddling the freelancer with the $3,200 rent. She’s paid what she can from her savings but now owes two months in back rent, and her landlord has been distressingly unresponsive to recent emails. The fear of eviction, Vega says, is ever present.

“I feel like I’m on the edge of a cliff, and I’m just waiting for a push to send me over,” she says. Vega is among the tens of thousands of New York renters struggling to understand the labyrinth of state orders and court guidance, issued at the beginning of the pandemic and continually updated over the past few months, that are dictating what can already be an opaque evictions process. Now, with housing courts partially reopened in New York City, push may soon come to shove for many renters like Vega who are behind on rent, or who haven’t paid at all since March.

Vega has yet to receive a notice from her landlord, but she is bracing for the possibility that she may be among the proverbial “tidal wave” of new eviction cases — at least 50,000 — that housing advocates estimate New York landlords will file in the coming weeks.

A blanket moratorium on evictions, ordered by Governor Andrew Cuomo, prevented New York renters from losing their homes over the past three months. But as of June 20, protections under that order narrowed. Instead, the current safeguards only apply to tenants who are eligible for unemployment or who have experienced a “financial hardship” related to COVID-19. People who meet those requirements cannot be evicted before August 20. How precisely the courts will decide who is protected under the extended moratorium has created confusion for tenant and landlord attorneys alike.

It’s a determination that could have far-reaching consequences for renters and property owners. But new guidance from the Office of Court Administration has temporarily put a pin in the issue by pausing all new eviction cases and the execution of warrants until at least July 6. Cases can be filed by mail, but those will be adjourned.

The bewildering complexity of the situation has added to the uncertainty for renters and their advocates. For months, tenant-rights groups, including the statewide Housing Justice for All coalition, have urged the governor to extend the blanket eviction moratorium, and on Monday, they took that message to the courts, with hundreds gathering outside of courthouses across the boroughs.

In Brooklyn, protesters railed outside the borough’s civil courts before marching through the streets of Downtown, chanting “Hey, hey! Ho, ho! Evictions have got to go!” Demonstrators in Manhattan participated in a die-in while holding signs that read “People Over Property.” And in Queens and the Bronx, dozens more shouted their outrage over megaphones, calling on Cuomo and Mayor Bill de Blasio to offer greater relief to renters and pleading for the housing courts to remain closed.jason wu, esq. #FreeThemAll4PublicHealth@CriticalRace

We are outside Manhattan Court to tell @NYGovCuomo: No to evictions. No to reopening housing courts. No to profits over people. #EvictionFreeNY and #CancelRent now.
✊🏻✊🏼✊🏽✊🏾✊🏿

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321 · New York City Housing CourtTwitter Ads info and privacy177 people are talking about this

“While the government has told us to stay in our homes, they’re now refusing to protect our ability to actually do that,” Kim Statuto told the crowd outside the Bronx courts. Statuto, a tenant leader with Community Action for Safe Apartments, is on a rent strike in her Claremont Village apartment building, where she has lived with her two adult children — who were both laid off from their jobs in March — for 26 years. “It’s not our fault we can’t pay, but when the courts reopen, we’re the ones that are going to suffer,” Statuto added.

Patrick Tyrrell, a tenant attorney with Mobilization for Justice who joined protesters in Brooklyn, says the issue of restarting evictions has become a “political hot potato” that has led to shaky leadership from the governor and the courts. “No one wants to be the person that says we’re going to evict people,” says Tyrrell. “But at the same time, they’re giving landlords these pinhole opportunities to protect their interests. It shows how politics can create a horrible process.”

That process is one that attorneys are still trying to piece together. Uncertainty lingers over the exact criteria tenants must meet to qualify for protection under the governor’s second executive order.

And that creates a harrowing situation for tenants like Vega who, as a freelancer, wasn’t laid off because of the pandemic, but her income did take a hit with several canceled commissions. “How do I prove that was directly related to the pandemic?” she questions. “It clearly was, but I have no idea how I’d even prove that. It’s terrifying that no one can tell me.”

Vega has already begun reaching out to clients, asking them to pen letters explaining why they reneged on commissions. “I’m trying to arm myself with something,” she says.#CANCELRENT Housing Justice For All@housing4allNY

Try and take our homes? We’ll take over the streets. @NYGovCuomo, extend the real eviction moratorium and #cancelrent now! #EvictionFreeNY

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Landlords who do choose to mail in new eviction cases will also have to provide an affidavit confirming that they have reviewed all existing state and federal restrictions on evictions and believe “in good faith” that the case is “consistent with those proceedings and qualifications,” according to guidance issued by New York State chief administrative judge Lawrence Marks.

But that order, landlord attorneys argue, may be overly burdensome for property owners, who have their own bills to pay, to pursue new cases.

Landlords also run the risk of potentially subjecting themselves to penalties if they wrongfully interpret those directives. Furthermore, they would have to attest that they have reason to believe a tenant is not eligible for unemployment benefits or is not otherwise facing financial hardship as a result of COVID-19 — but again, neither the governor nor the courts have concretely defined what constitutes such a hardship.

“I don’t say this lightly, but the New York City Housing Court has essentially ceased to function,” says landlord attorney Nativ Winiarsky, partner with Kucker Marino Winiarsky & Bittens, LLP.

according to real estate lead generation companies, landlords looking for relief may try to pursue eviction cases in the Supreme Court or through other nonhousing civil-court channels, but that’s a laborious process that could prove too costly for some landlords to pursue. “All of this, I believe, is effectively and severely unfairly impacting a landlord’s property and due-process rights,” adds Winiarsky.

This has left Vega feeling like she’s caught between two worlds, and without greater relief from the state or city, she expects to remain stuck. “Everyone is trying to squeeze whatever they can get out of everyone right now, and that’s because the government has failed us,” says Vega. “We need to cancel rent. We need to cancel mortgages. And if we don’t, I am the one who will suffer.”

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ny.curbed.com/2020

NAR reports sales down 26.6% | Cross River Real Estate

Existing-home sales fell in May, marking a three-month decline in sales as a result of the coronavirus outbreak, according to the National Association of Realtors®. Each of the four major regions witnessed dips in month-over-month and year-over-year sales, with the Northeast experiencing the greatest month-over-month drop.

Total existing-home sales,1 https://www.nar.realtor/existing-home-sales, completed transactions that include single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops, slumped 9.7% from April to a seasonally-adjusted annual rate of 3.91 million in May. Overall, sales fell year-over-year, down 26.6% from a year ago (5.33 million in May 2019).

“Sales completed in May reflect contract signings in March and April – during the strictest times of the pandemic lockdown and hence the cyclical low point,” said Lawrence Yun, NAR’s chief economist. “Home sales will surely rise in the upcoming months with the economy reopening, and could even surpass one-year-ago figures in the second half of the year.”

The median existing-home price2 for all housing types in May was $284,600, up 2.3% from May 2019 ($278,200), as prices increased in every region. May’s national price increase marks 99 straight months of year-over-year gains.

Total housing inventory3 at the end of May totaled 1.55 million units, up 6.2% from April, and down 18.8% from one year ago (1.91 million). Unsold inventory sits at a 4.8-month supply at the current sales pace, up from 4.0 months in April and up from the 4.3-month figure recorded in May 2019.

“New home construction needs to robustly ramp up in order to meet rising housing demand,” Yun said. “Otherwise, home prices will rise too fast and hinder first-time buyers, even at a time of record-low mortgage rates.”

Properties typically remained on the market for 26 days in May, seasonally down from 27 days in April, but equal to 26 days in May 2019. Fifty-eight percent of homes sold in May 2020 were on the market for less than a month.

First-time buyers were responsible for 34% of sales in May, down from 36% in April 2020 and up from 32% in May 2019. NAR’s 2019 Profile of Home Buyers and Sellers – released in late 20194 – revealed that the annual share of first-time buyers was 33%.

Individual investors or second-home buyers, who account for many cash sales, purchased 14% of homes in May, up from 10% in April 2020 and from 13% in May 2019. All-cash sales accounted for 17% of transactions in May, up from 15% in April 2020 and down from 19% in May 2019.

Distressed sales5 – foreclosures and short sales – represented 3% of sales in May, about even with April but up from 2% in May 2019.

“Although the real estate industry faced some very challenging circumstances over the last several months, we’re seeing signs of improvement and growth, and I’m hopeful the worst is behind us,” said NAR President Vince Malta, broker at Malta & Co., Inc., in San Francisco, Calif. “NAR, along with our partners and 1.4 million members, are already working to reignite America’s real estate industry, which will be a key driver in our nation’s economic recovery.”

According to Freddie Mac, the average commitment rate(link is external) for a 30-year, conventional, fixed-rate mortgage decreased to 3.23% in May, down from 3.31% in April. The average commitment rate across all of 2019 was 3.94%.

Single-family and Condo/Co-op Sales

Single-family home sales sat at a seasonally-adjusted annual rate of 3.57 million in May, down 9.4% from 3.94 million in April, and down 24.8% from one year ago. The median existing single-family home price was $287,700 in May, up 2.4% from May 2019.

Existing condominium and co-op sales were recorded at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 340,000 units in May, down 12.8% from April and down 41.4% from a year ago. The median existing condo price was $252,300 in May, a decrease of 1.6% from a year ago.

“Relatively better performance of single-family homes in relation to multifamily condominium properties clearly suggest migration from the city centers to the suburbs,” Yun said. “After witnessing several consecutive years of urban revival, the new trend looks to be in the suburbs as more companies allow greater flexibility to work from home.”

This relocating trend can be examined further in the buying behaviors of millennials, outlined in a recent NAR report identifying the top 10 markets with opportunities for millennial homebuyers. Among other factors, the report analyzes current housing affordability and job market conditions for millennials during the pandemic. The markets – listed in alphabetical order – are Austin-Round Rock, Texas; Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, Texas; Des Moines-West Des Moines, Iowa; Durham-Chapel Hill-Raleigh, N.C.; Houston-The Woodlands, Texas; Indianapolis-Carmel-Anderson, Ind.; Omaha, Nebraska/Council Bluffs, Iowa; Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale, Ariz.; Portland, Oregon/Vancouver, Wash.; and Salt Lake City, Utah.

Regional Breakdown

As was the case for the month prior, sales for May decreased in every region from the previous month’s levels. Median home prices grew in three of the four major regions from one year ago, falling marginally in the West.

May 2020 existing-home sales in the Northeast fell 13.0%, recording an annual rate of 470,000, a 29.9% decrease from a year ago. The median price in the Northeast was $327,900, up 7.8% from May 2019.

Existing-home sales decreased 10.0% in the Midwest to an annual rate of 990,000 in May, down 20.2% from a year ago. The median price in the Midwest was $227,400, a 3.0% increase from May 2019.

Existing-home sales in the South dropped 8.0% to an annual rate of 1.73 million in May, down 25.1% from the same time one year ago. The median price in the South was $247,400, a 2.1% increase from a year ago.

Existing-home sales in the West fell 11.1% to an annual rate of 720,000 in May, a 35.1% decline from a year ago. The median price in the West was $408,400, down 0.2% from May 2019.

The National Association of Realtors® is America’s largest trade association, representing more than 1.4 million members involved in all aspects of the residential and commercial real estate industries.

# # #

For local information, please contact the local association of Realtors® for data from local multiple listing services (MLS). Local MLS data is the most accurate source of sales and price information in specific areas, although there may be differences in reporting methodology.NOTE: NAR’s Pending Home Sales Index for May is scheduled for release on June 29, and Existing-Home Sales for June will be released July 22; release times are 10:00 a.m. ET.

1 Existing-home sales, which include single-family, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops, are based on transaction closings from Multiple Listing Services. Changes in sales trends outside of MLSs are not captured in the monthly series. NAR rebenchmarks home sales periodically using other sources to assess overall home sales trends, including sales not reported by MLSs.

Existing-home sales, based on closings, differ from the U.S. Census Bureau’s series on new single-family home sales, which are based on contracts or the acceptance of a deposit. Because of these differences, it is not uncommon for each series to move in different directions in the same month. In addition, existing-home sales, which account for more than 90% of total home sales, are based on a much larger data sample – about 40% of multiple listing service data each month – and typically are not subject to large prior-month revisions.

The annual rate for a particular month represents what the total number of actual sales for a year would be if the relative pace for that month were maintained for 12 consecutive months. Seasonally adjusted annual rates are used in reporting monthly data to factor out seasonal variations in resale activity. For example, home sales volume is normally higher in the summer than in the winter, primarily because of differences in the weather and family buying patterns. However, seasonal factors cannot compensate for abnormal weather patterns.

Single-family data collection began monthly in 1968, while condo data collection began quarterly in 1981; the series were combined in 1999 when monthly collection of condo data began. Prior to this period, single-family homes accounted for more than nine out of 10 purchases. Historic comparisons for total home sales prior to 1999 are based on monthly single-family sales, combined with the corresponding quarterly sales rate for condos.

2 The median price is where half sold for more and half sold for less; medians are more typical of market conditions than average prices, which are skewed higher by a relatively small share of upper-end transactions. The only valid comparisons for median prices are with the same period a year earlier due to seasonality in buying patterns. Month-to-month comparisons do not compensate for seasonal changes, especially for the timing of family buying patterns. Changes in the composition of sales can distort median price data. Year-ago median and mean prices sometimes are revised in an automated process if additional data is received.

The national median condo/co-op price often is higher than the median single-family home price because condos are concentrated in higher-cost housing markets. However, in a given area, single-family homes typically sell for more than condos as seen in NAR’s quarterly metro area price reports.

3 Total inventory and month’s supply data are available back through 1999, while single-family inventory and month’s supply are available back to 1982 (prior to 1999, single-family sales accounted for more than 90% of transactions and condos were measured only on a quarterly basis).

4 Survey results represent owner-occupants and differ from separately reported monthly findings from NAR’s Realtors® Confidence Index, which include all types of buyers. Investors are under-represented in the annual study because survey questionnaires are mailed to the addresses of the property purchased and generally are not returned by absentee owners. Results include both new and existing homes.

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nar.realtor/newsroom

89% of renters are paying rent | Katonah Real Estate

The National Multifamily Housing Council’s Rent Payment Tracker has found that 89% of apartment households—sourced from 11.4 million professionally managed units across the country—had made a full or partial June 2020 rent payment by June 13.

This number represents an increase in the share of collections over the same periods in May and April, when 87.7% and 85% of renters had made a rent payment, respectively. Notably, it also shows a 0.1 percentage point increase over the share of collections during the same period in June 2019.

“Once again, it appears that residents of professionally managed apartments were able to largely pay their rent. However, there is a growing realization that renters outside of this universe are experiencing profound hardships as the nation continues to grapple with historic unemployment and economic dislocation,” says Doug Bibby, NMHC president.

While rent collections appear to be on the rise, NMHC vice president of business strategy Sarah Yaussi warns that this data is not necessarily a forward-looking indicator, and no sources are available to show how rent is being paid based on income resources. About half of renter households report being affected by unemployment, which suggests that unemployment benefits could make a difference in renters’ ability to pay. This could become a concern in August, when expanded unemployment benefits are due to expire.

When asked if the worst is behind us, Chase Harrington, COO of Entrata, says it’s hard to tell. Despite rising leasing activity in May and into June, he also notes a decrease in renewals, as well as a rise in month-to-month leases. Brian Zrimsek, industry principal at MRI Software, reports a substantial spike in credit card payments in May, which could suggest either rent payment by credit card out of necessity or an attempt to receive credit card perks based on the relaxing of limits.

“In the midst of a pandemic and a recession, it is critical that those on the front lines are safely and securely housed,” Bibby adds. “Accordingly, we urge lawmakers to take swift action to create a Rental Assistance Fund and extend unemployment benefits so we can avoid future eviction-related problems and don’t undermine the initial recovery.”

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https://www.multifamilyexecutive.com/property-management/rent-trends/

Real Estate Prices Fall Sharply in New York | Bedford Hills Real Estate

Since the coronavirus shut the city down, the number of sales in Manhattan dropped 54 percent and the median price fell to $1 million.

After three months with brokers prohibited from in-person showings, many buyers and sellers are just starting to get back in the market.
After three months with brokers prohibited from in-person showings, many buyers and sellers are just starting to get back in the market.Credit…Karsten Moran for The New York Times

The coronavirus has dealt a blow to the Manhattan real estate market unmatched in recent history, and the prospects of a near-term recovery remain unclear.

The number of closed sales in the second quarter were down 54 percent compared to the same period last year, the largest decline in at least 30 years, according to a new report from the brokerage Douglas Elliman. The median sales price fell 17.7 percent, compared to the same time last year, to $1 million, the biggest drop in a decade.

The number of contracts signed for apartments in June, the latest indicator of buyer appetite, was down 76 percent, compared to the same time last year.

“This is what you get when the market is not able to function,” said Jonathan Miller, a New York appraiser and the author of the report, noting that in-person apartment showings in New York City were banned for nearly the entire quarter. “It’s an extreme moment, to put it lightly.”

Even after a full quarter of sales data in the midst of the pandemic, outlining the shape of an eventual recovery is difficult. More than 90 percent of the sales recorded in the second quarter were actually signed before the virus gripped New York in March, said Bess Freedman, the chief executive of the brokerage Brown Harris Stevens.

“A lot will ride on what happens with schools at the end of the summer,” Ms. Freedman said, because few potential buyers with children who have left the city to escape the pandemic will choose to return, if virtual classrooms continue.

Pent-up demand, from buyers who were unable to view apartments before the city started to reopen, is likely to fuel sales in the next quarter, and home sellers seem to agree. Last week, 550 new listings hit the market, nearly twice as many as in the same week last year, according to UrbanDigs, a real estate data firm. But overall, listings in Manhattan are still down 26 percent compared to last year, the first year-over-year drop in inventory in five years, according to the Corcoran Group.

“I’d like to say it dropped because we sold it all, but that’s not the reality,” said Pamela Liebman, the chief executive of Corcoran, noting that many sellers pulled their homes off the market because of the shutdown.

Despite the significant drop in sales price in the quarter, more time is needed to make sense of the sharp decline. “There are plenty of examples of discounts, and just as many without,” said Mr. Miller, who notes that the market is only now entering a stage resembling normalcy.

One of the looming questions heading into the third quarter is how the pandemic will shift buyer preferences. There has been a spike in search traffic for apartments with outdoor spaces and home offices, said Rory Golod, the regional president of the brokerage Compass.

“People are more attracted to a property that no one has ever lived in before,” said Steve Kliegerman, the president of Brown Harris Stevens Development Marketing, adding that the shift could be a boon for the new development market. That is not yet the case, though. Just 98 contracts on newly built apartments were signed or closed from mid-March to mid-June, a 75 percent drop from the same period last year, according to a report from his firm.

Several agents have said that units in larger buildings have been a particularly hard sell, because of concerns over crowded elevators and shared lobbies. And even though state guidelines no longer prohibit in-person showings, some buildings have not relaxed their rules and are still refusing to allow move-ins or apartment showings.

There may be more lasting changes in the months to come. The share of all-cash buyers dropped to 41 percent, down from an average of about 50 percent over the last several years, Mr. Miller said. That could have major implications for the luxury market, which had been propped up by investment buyers who typically bought without financing.

The market may return to some semblance of normal by the first quarter of 2021, said Garrett Derderian, the chief executive of GS Data Services, a real estate analytics firm. But that will depend not only on whether the city experiences another wave of infections, but also on whether the state decides to raise income taxes to shore up pandemic-related budget shortfalls.

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Housing starts up 4.3% | Bedford NY Real Estate

Housing Starts Miss Expectations as Permits Rebound Strongly

Housing Starts Miss Expectations as Permits Rebound Strongly

U.S. homebuilding increased less than expected in May, but a strong rebound in permits for future home construction suggested the housing market was starting to emerge from the COVID-19 crisis along with the broader economy.

Other data on Wednesday showed applications for loans to buy a home surged to a near 11-1/2-year high last week.

The reports followed on the heels of data on Tuesday showing a record surge in retail sales in May. Employers hired a historic 2.5 million workers last month. Activity, however, remains well below pre-COVID-19 levels and economists warn it could take even a decade for the economy to fully recover from the global pandemic.

“Housing is a leading economic indicator and it is pointing the way forward but there is a limit to growth when the economy has to drag along the millions and millions of unemployed workers displaced in this pandemic recession who won’t be seeing paychecks anytime soon,” said Chris Rupkey, chief economist at MUFG in New York.

Housing starts rose 4.3% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 974,000 units last month, the Commerce Department said. That compared with the median forecast of 1.1 million.

Starts declined 26.4% in April and 19.0% in March. They dropped 23.2% on a year-on-year basis in May.

Single-family homebuilding, which accounts for the largest share of the housing market, edged up 0.1% to a rate of 675,000 units in May. Starts for the volatile multi-family housing segment jumped 15.0% to a pace of 299,000 units.

Homebuilding fell in the Midwest and the populous South. It rose in the West and Northeast.

Permits for future home construction rebounded 14.4% to a rate of 1.220 million units in May, reinforcing economists’ expectations that the housing market will lead the economy from the recession that started in February, driven by historically low mortgage rates.

Though the housing market accounts for about 3.3% of gross domestic product, it has a larger footprint on the economy.

A separate report from the Mortgage Bankers Association on Wednesday showed applications for loans to buy a home increased 4% last week to their highest level since January 2009.

Mortgage applications have climbed back above pre-COVID-19 levels.

Signs of recovery in the housing market were underscored by a survey of Tuesday showing single-family homebuilders very upbeat in June about conditions in the industry. Builders reported increased demand for single-family homes in lower density neighborhoods.

But with nearly 20 million unemployed and a resurgence of COVID-19 infections in some parts of the country, the housing market is not out of the woods yet.

Single-family building permits increased 11.9% to a rate of 745,000 units in May. Permits for multi-family units surged 18.8% to a rate of 475,000 units.

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2020 Thomson/Reuters

Mortgage rate hits record low 3.07% | North Salem Real Estate

Freddie Mac (OTCQB: FMCC) today released the results of its Primary Mortgage Market Survey® (PMMS®), showing that the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage (FRM) averaged 3.07 percent, the lowest rate in the survey’s history dating back to 1971.

“Mortgage rates continue to slowly drift downward with a distinct possibility that the average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage could dip below 3 percent later this year,” said Sam Khater, Freddie Mac’s Chief Economist. “On the economic front, incoming data suggest the rebound in economic activity has paused in the last couple of weeks with modest declines in consumer spending and a pullback in purchase activity.”

News Facts

  • 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 3.07 percent with an average 0.8 point for the week ending July 2, 2020, down from 3.13 percent. A year ago at this time, the 30-year FRM averaged 3.75 percent.  
  • 15-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 2.56 percent with an average 0.8 point, down slightly from last week when it averaged 2.59 percent. A year ago at this time, the 15-year FRM averaged 3.18 percent.  
  • 5-year Treasury-indexed hybrid adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) averaged 3.00 percent with an average 0.3 point, down slightly from last week when it averaged 3.08 percent. A year ago at this time, the 5-year ARM averaged 3.45 percent.

Average commitment rates should be reported along with average fees and points to reflect the total upfront cost of obtaining the mortgage. Visit the following link for the Definitions. Borrowers may still pay closing costs which are not included in the survey.

Freddie Mac makes home possible for millions of families and individuals by providing mortgage capital to lenders. Since our creation by Congress in 1970, we’ve made housing more accessible and affordable for homebuyers and renters in communities nationwide. We are building a better housing finance system for homebuyers, renters, lenders, investors and taxpayers.

Chappaqua Residents Flouting Pandemic Rules | Chappaqua Real Estate

NEW CASTLE, NY — After Westchester County officials begged hundreds of New Castle residents exposed to the new coronavirus over Horace Greeley High School’s graduation weekend to self-quarantine and answer contact tracers’ calls, town officials issued a statement — and they didn’t mince words.

“It has come to our attention that despite the continued outreach and education by and from the Town of New Castle, Westchester County and New York State, there are some people who continue to ignore social distancing guidelines and willfully disregard the protocols intended to protect the public health,” they said in a special edition of their e-newsletter.

“Lest it be lost on anyone, your 16-year-old child does not dictate to you that he or she is going to hang out with friends. When your son or daughter is home from college living under your roof, it is your roost to rule. If you just returned from states such as North Carolina, South Carolina, Florida, Arizona or Texas, do not have the arrogance to believe you do not need to self-quarantine for 14 days.”

The outbreak is connected to two local families who returned from trips to Florida bringing the virus. Infected family members attended the ceremony and parties over June 20-21 that drew not only the school’s more than 300 graduates but also family members, other Greeley students and staff, as well as teenagers from nearby communities.

Disregarding pandemic protocols is apparently a pattern in this coronavirus cluster. A photo from the graduation ceremony widely shared on social media shows many students and guests mingling without masks during the ceremony, which was planned as a “drive-in” event at the Chappaqua train station’s south lot.Subscribe

Then during a visit Monday to New Castle, County Executive George Latimer and Health Commissioner Sherlita Amler held a news conference and repeatedly reminded residents that everyone who attended the ceremony or parties must properly quarantine themselves. They also repeatedly implored residents to answer phone calls from contact tracers trying to find and warn everyone who was exposed.

New Castle officials sent out their email later that night.

“We will not tolerate these selfish actions,” they said. “Know that you are potentially and gravely hurting this community and those you presumably love if you do not. Yes, you can have gatherings consistent with the Executive Orders, but whether you are 18 or 81, be neither complicit nor the problem itself. Do not throw parties and forget the social distancing and mask wearing that has kept us safe. Ignorance is not bliss. In fact, getting sick from or passing on COVID-19 is anything but that.

“Show respect to your neighbors, friends, family members and strangers – such as those who were self-quarantined despite adhering to the law and best practices.”

Town officials said the board and Police Department are fully involved in the efforts led by the New York State Department of Health.

“It is our hope that we need not pursue the type of recourse that those who are summoned or charged will undoubtedly regret,” they said. “Whether you are a New Castle resident, a visitor from a neighboring community, or a student in the Chappaqua Central School District, should you flout the very rules that are intended to keep us all safe, the consequences may be quite severe. Know that we have reached out to and spoken with the Governor’s Office and the Westchester County District Attorney’s Office for guidance on how to best enforce social distancing orders whether through civil sanctions and fines or criminal prosecutions.”

New Castle police have reorganized to assign several officers to pandemic protocol enforcement.

If we see a social distancing violation or an actionable one is reported to us, we will investigate and address it,” said Chief James Carroll.

You can be charged with:

  • Violation of Health Law (PBH § 12-B) – criminal misdemeanor; up to $10,000 for a first-time violation and/or up to one-year imprisonment.
  • Violation of Health Law (PBH § 12) – civil violation; up to $2,000 for a first-time violation and $5,000 for repeat violations.
  • 10 NYCRR 66-3.2 Section 66-3.2. – civil violation; maximum fine of $1,000 for each violation.
  • Disorderly Conduct, Penal Law § 240.20 (6) – criminal violation; up to a $250 fine and fifteen days in jail.

Police ask residents who observe a social distancing violation or any other violation of the Governor’s Executive Orders to call (914) 238-4422.

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https://patch.com/new-york/chappaqua/residents-flouting-pandemic-rules-are-arrogant-selfish

Case-Shiller yearly prices up 4% | Chappaqua Real Estate

With today’s release of the April S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index, we learned that seasonally adjusted home prices for the benchmark 20-city index were up 0.33% month over month which is cut to 0.16% with inflation adjustment. The nonseasonally adjusted index was up 4.0% year-over-year.

Investing.com had forecast a 0.5% MoM seasonally adjusted increase and 4.0% YoY nonseasonally adjusted for the 20-city series.

Here is the analysis from today’s Standard & Poor’s press release:

“April’s housing price data continue to be remarkably stable,” says Craig J. Lazzara, Managing Director and Global Head of Index Investment Strategy at S&P Dow Jones Indices. “The National Composite Index rose by 4.7% in April 2020, with comparable growth in the 10- and 20-City Composites (up 3.4% and 4.0%, respectively). In all three cases, April’s year-over-year gains were ahead of March’s, continuing a trend of gently accelerating home prices that began last fall. Results in April continued to be broad-based. Prices rose in each of the 19 cities for which we have reported data, and price increases accelerated in 12 cities.

“As was the case in March, we have data from only 19 cities this month, since transactions records for Wayne County, Michigan (in the Detroit metropolitan area) continue to be unavailable. This is, so far, the only directly visible impact of COVID-19 on the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices. The price trend that was in place pre-pandemic seems so far to be undisturbed, at least at the national level. Indeed, prices in 12 of the 20 cities in our survey were at an all-time high in April.

“Among the cities, Phoenix retains the top spot for the 11th consecutive month, with a gain of 8.8% for April. Home prices in Seattle rose by 7.3%, followed by increases in Minneapolis (6.4%) and Cleveland (6.0%). Prices were particularly strong in the West and Southeast, and comparatively weak in the Northeast.” [Read more]

The chart below is an overlay of the Case-Shiller 10- and 20-City Composite Indexes along with the national index since 1987, the first year that the 10-City Composite was tracked. Note that the 20-City, which is probably the most closely watched of the three, dates from 2000. We’ve used the seasonally adjusted data for this illustration.

Home Price Index
Home Price Index

The next chart shows the year-over-year Case-Shiller series, again using the seasonally adjusted data.

Home Price Index

Here is the same year-over-year overlay adjusted for inflation with the Consumer Price Index owners’ equivalent rent of residences.

Home Price Index

For a long-term perspective on home prices, here is a look at the seasonally and inflation-adjusted Case-Shiller price index from 1953, the first year that monthly data is available. Because the CPI owners’ equivalent rent of residences didn’t start until 1983, we’ve used the broader seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index.

Home Price Index since 1953

To get an even better idea of the trend in housing prices over long time periods, we compare the change in the seasonally-adjusted Case-Shiller Home Price Index and the Consumer Price Index since 1953.

For additional perspectives on residential real estate, here is the complete list of our monthly updates:

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https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2020/06/30/s-p-case-shiller-home-price-index-april-update